EPAC: HILARY - Remnants

[Fyzn94]

Pinhole.

Still can't rule out a category 5 at this point...

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011

HILARY HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY STEADY STATE IN INTENSITY AND
STRUCTURE TODAY AS A SMALL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE TAFB AND
SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES AS WELL AS THE ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE FROM CIMMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS OF 125 KT
...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY ANALYZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE ALSO REMAINS QUITE SMALL AS INDICATED BY THE LIMITED COLD
CLOUD ENVELOPE AND A 1621Z CIRA AMSU WIND RADII ESTIMATE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY. HILARY IS PRIMARILY BEING
STEERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A ZONALLY-ORIENTED DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS OR SO. AT THE EXTENDED RANGE...HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO
EXISTS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL..HWRF...AND
EXPERIMENTAL GFD5 REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS RECURVE HILARY TOWARD
MEXICO BY IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS DUE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPINGING UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
REMAINING RELIABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS HILARY ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH FIVE DAYS...AS THEY DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ON HILARY. IT NOW APPEARS FORTUITOUS THAT
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID NOT INDICATE A TRACK CLOSER TO
MEXICO...AS THE 12Z GLOBAL AND GFDN MODEL SUITE HAVE SWUNG BACK
TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN
THESE MODEL RUNS TO THE WEST AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE EAST.

WHILE HILARY HAS APPARENTLY NOT INTENSIFIED FURTHER TODAY...THE
CYCLONE DOES HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS...IN MOIST AIR...AND WITHIN LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IT IS QUITE LIKELY
THAT HILARY WILL CONTINUE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME.
INTENSITY VARIATIONS THAT OCCUR MAY BE DOMINATED BY INTERNAL
DYNAMICS...SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...WHICH WE HAVE VERY
LIMITED ABILITY TO ANTICIPATE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS...LESS UNSTABLE AIR...AND
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKENING
TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE LGEM AND SHIPS
STATISTICAL MODELS AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 16.3N 103.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.5N 104.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.8N 106.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 17.3N 109.6W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 21.0N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[CrazyC83]

I think Recon would still find a stronger storm wind-wise if it went in.

[cycloneye]

A cruise ship (Millennium) that was going to make stops in Acapulco and other ports in Central America,had to go well away from the Mexican coast to evade this powerful hurricane. Now it will go strait towards the Panama Canal.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=9HJF9

[Yellow Evan]

Not very often you have a cat 4 this close to land with no recon.

Is there a reason for no recon? Just curious as to what the theory would be for not having any. Is it due to the fact that many of the models have her continuing out into the open Pacific?

Too far offshore and slightly south for recon IMO.

[CrazyC83]

Any thoughts on what they think the peak intensity was? Based on recent experience with pinholes and Dvorak usually underestimating, I think 135 kt. Don't want to go any higher without better proof though.

[MGC]

Interesting note there on the Celebrity Millenium avoiding Hilary. I was on Millenium last summer in Alaska...beautiful ship. Hopefully those aboard don't get too sea sick. Hilary looks to be intensifying again with colder cloud tops appearing on the IR loop....MGC

[CrazyC83]

Interesting note there on the Celebrity Millenium avoiding Hilary. I was on Millenium last summer in Alaska...beautiful ship. Hopefully those aboard don't get too sea sick. Hilary looks to be intensifying again with colder cloud tops appearing on the IR loop....MGC

I think Hilary could make a run at Category 5 tonight. We'd need lots of T7.0s and higher for that though without Recon.

[cycloneye]

Interesting note there on the Celebrity Millenium avoiding Hilary. I was on Millenium last summer in Alaska...beautiful ship. Hopefully those aboard don't get too sea sick. Hilary looks to be intensifying again with colder cloud tops appearing on the IR loop....MGC

Going off topic for a moment,but I was in this ship on a 15 day cruise from late April thru early May of this year visiting the same ports this cruise was going.

[CrazyC83]

23/2345 UTC 16.6N 103.5W T6.5/6.5 HILARY -- East Pacific

[CrazyC83]

EP, 09, 2011092400, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1036W, 125, 940, HU,

[Yellow Evan]

D-Number have increased slightly. A step in the right direction.

[tobol.7uno]

Latest forecast models...

[tobol.7uno]

Intensity forecasts...

[Yellow Evan]

Models showing Cat 5!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
SPECTACULAR ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE
DATA. IT IS SMALL BUT VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED
BY VERY STRONG CONVECTION. ALL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELD
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY GOOD
PREVAILING ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...HILARY COULD STILL
GAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN IF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES OCCUR AND RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY...HILARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE
FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE...AND HILARY SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.

TRACKING THE EYE ON SATELLITE GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
NORMALLY VERY STEADY...AND THIS TIME IS NO DIFFERENT. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE HILARY ON A
GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL REACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTHWARD BUT
VERY SLOWLY. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY
WHEN THE STEERING IS WELL ESTABLISHED. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE
BECOMES REALLY DIVERGENT...BUT THE GENERAL TUNE IS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GAIN LATITUDE OR TO RECURVE. IT COULD BE AN
INTERESTING BUT DIFFICULT FORECAST BEYOND FIVE DAYS. I AM GLAD I DO
NOT HAVE TO MAKE IT AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.7N 104.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.9N 105.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.3N 107.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.8N 110.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 18.0N 113.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 19.5N 115.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[tobol.7uno]

Here is some microwave imagery. Spectacular they say. Indeed it is! This is over the last 24 hours.

[CrazyC83]

Deep trough pattern = recurve. And unlike in the Atlantic, recurving here means land impacts.

[euro6208]

this hurricane looks a lot like the typhoons earlier this year. i would estimate the intensity at 135 knots... good thing it's headed out to sea and weakening...

[tobol.7uno]

So small yet so impressive!