WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm (20W)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Maybe this will help you find the eye, microwave imagery, lets you see through the overcast cirrus

[oaba09]

Signal #2 already raised in the capital...signal #3 raised in the northern parts of luzon...

[RobWESTPACWX]

I love TFC, they are saying that all the other agencies besides Pagasa are calling this storm a Super Typhoon, way to push the scare out there.

[Infdidoll]

Man, looks like you guys dodged a bullet. I saw they had this thing predicted up to a Category 4 yesterday. Still going to be a mess and lots of rain! That's some serious convection. Just hope the situation doesn't change drastically for the worse overnight!

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1117 NESAT (1117)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 15.5N 124.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 220NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 16.5N 120.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 280600UTC 17.6N 116.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 290600UTC 18.4N 113.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

Man, looks like you guys dodged a bullet. I saw they had this thing predicted up to a Category 4 yesterday. Still going to be a mess and lots of rain! That's some serious convection. Just hope the situation doesn't change drastically for the worse overnight!

I agree, it could have been worst, but as we have seen so far this season with the tropical systems the winds are never the main problems as it has been the rain. So I think there will be a major mess.

Seeing videos out of Albay already getting flooding there.

[dexterlabio]

Yeah at least this storm didn't bomb out. I agree the rain will be the issue here, the rain is almost non-stop but PAGASA said the rains won't be as bad as Ketsana exactly two years ago.

I am just amazed because the center of the storm is not considerably near the Bicol region but the footage in our local news from Camarines Sur and Albay shows pretty strong winds and rains, also the same with the footage from Isabela. That probably describes the sheer size of this storm.

[dexterlabio]

JMA latest track forecast


TY 1117 (NESAT)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 26 September 2011

<Analyses at 26/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°30'(15.5°)
E124°35'(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N500km(270NM)
S410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 26/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°00'(16.0°)
E122°25'(122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 27/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°30'(16.5°)
E120°00'(120.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E116°40'(116.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E113°05'(113.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM

[RobWESTPACWX]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D5HXOggGfk[/youtube]

Another Video, sums up a lot of the stuff being talked about here. So thanks guys!

[P.K.]

I love TFC, they are saying that all the other agencies besides Pagasa are calling this storm a Super Typhoon, way to push the scare out there.

Quite impressive that when only three agencies in the region actually use the term in the first place let alone how inaccurate the media are on the wind speeds by referring to it as that in this case.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya the PI news is not what I would call the most reliable. It's a serious situation and the Intro to the news sounds like a sports announcer introducing the starting line up for a game.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Already one fishermen missing. Sadly seems that number will go up.

[oaba09]

latest from JTWC:


WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 123.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 123.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.6N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.2N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.8N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.4N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.4N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.0N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.2N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 123.3E.
TYPHOON 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (HAITANG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
***********************************************************
WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A RAGGED EYE NOW EVIDENT. A 260955Z SSMIS 91H IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVED EYEWALL ORGANIZATION WITH A BANDING FEATURE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS,
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS,
BASED ON RECENT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 85 TO 92
KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ON A STRAIGHT-RUNNER
PATTERN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT (170 NM SPREAD IN TAU 72
FORECAST POSITIONS) AND THE GFS SOLUTION HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 90
KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12 AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
OVER HAINAN ISLAND AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. NEAR TAU 120, TY 20W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
VIETNAM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER THE GULF OF
TONKIN.//
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

26/1432 UTC 15.9N 123.3E T5.0/5.0 NESAT -- West Pacific

90 knots 1-minute, 80 knots 10-minute winds.

SAB ADT raw numbers higher due to the clear eye, CI# catching up:

2011SEP26 140100 5.4 946.0/ +2.5 / 99.6 5.4 5.7 6.3 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF -41.08 -77.59 EYE -99 IR 16.15 -123.49 SPRL

946 mb, 5.4 T# which is about 100 knots one-minute (90 knots 10-minute) and a raw T# of 6.3 (120kt 1-min, 105kt 10-min)

UW-CIMSS Dvorak:

Code: Select all

 ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  26 SEP 2011    Time : 153000 UTC
      Lat :   16:10:47 N     Lon :  123:02:36 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.2 / 939.2mb/119.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.2     6.7     6.7

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -23.3C    Cloud Region Temp : -78.9C

 Scene Type : EYE 

Raw T# of 6.7/135 kts 1-min

[P.K.]

Up to 80kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1117 NESAT (1117)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 16.2N 122.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 220NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 16.9N 118.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 281800UTC 17.9N 114.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 291800UTC 19.1N 111.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[Extratropical94]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 934.1mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 7.1 7.1

2011SEP26 190100 6.0 929.4/ +2.4 /115.0 6.0 6.2 7.1 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF -8.80 -79.31 EYE -99 IR 16.20 -122.57 COMBO

Raw Dvorak estimates exceeding 7.0 (140 knots, category 5) due to structural improvements and a warmer core temp

[Extratropical94]

JTWC 2100Z (out early): category three - 105 kt winds

[oaba09]

The rain and wind here are pretty bad right now. I decided to stay at home as a precautionary measure.

[P.K.]

Landfall per PAGASA.

dost_pagasa PAGASA-DOST
Typhoon Pedring has just made landfall over the boundary of Isabela and Aurora.

[JTE50]

land fall shot: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMCOL.JPG