WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm (20W)

[StormingB81]

Located 6N and 138E SE of PI and SW of Guam....Wonder if this is the one that ECMWF been showing the last few runs?

No Photo Yet.

[climateconcern23]

[phwxenthusiast]

the next big thing if we take the models verbatim...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hey Storming, this is the one ECM is developing.

As Pat said most models are developing this one and I think it will be the next big player in the Wpac. GFS takes it through Bashi - CMC, UKMET and ECMWF take it towards Luzon. I'll be watching this one closely!

[dexterlabio]

Too bad the NCEP page put out the simpler track map showing the model runs from Euro. Maybe they knew I was sneaking on pages that are supposed to be restricted to some.

I'm waiting for the 00z run to see if there will be any changes, though I really feel that this one is SCS-bound.

[dexterlabio]

As of now the shear isn't that friendly to support a significant strengthening, but you can see that the shear is decreasing on the area around this system and also along its potential track. That's when the action starts.

[ManilaTC]

Here is a nice ASCAT shot of a circulation forming east of Palau.

[euro6208]

ecmwf develops this and smashing luzon then intensifying in the south china sea. looks like a monster typhoon for vietnam at the end...

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 137.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 210012Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED AT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH APPEARS TO BE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS
LUZON AND THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA. THE 21/00Z UPPER LEVEL STREAM
LINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH A DIFFLUENT
ASYMPTOTE IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[dexterlabio]

Relocated, upgraded to MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
137.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 141.6E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVING LLCC WITH
FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Typhoon10]

Upgraded to High

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
141.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPROVED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 221642Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT
YAP HAS DROPPED APPROXIMATELY 2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21
PGTW 202000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE IMPROVED LLCC AND DEEP
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[ManilaTC]

TCFA Fellas!

WTPN21 PGTW 222000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 139.8E TO 15.2N 135.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 221730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 138.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
141.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPROVED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 221642Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT
YAP HAS DROPPED APPROXIMATELY 2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232000Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

James, if the Euro is right you may not haft to go to far for this one.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Really looking more and more like a TD, exposed TD but one none the less.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 139E NNW SLOWLY.

[dexterlabio]

Looking robust now. I can say it is already going there. If it will just continue to develop while staying in the Philippine Sea (without shear interfering), I don't see any reason that this won't be a major one, IMO this can be the rival of Hilary in EPAC. Also in its formative stage, the overall circulation already looks quite huge, Euro could be right in showing a fairly large system east of Luzon.

So far not good, seems that this system will make PI as a passageway before going to Southern China. Well at least PAGASA already mentioned this to the public yesterday.


From Euro



(GFS almost similar with ECMWF)

[dexterlabio]

Long-range from Euro. Still showing a threat to Southern China. (Notice that other one east of PI, ECM been showing that for some time now..)

[dexterlabio]

Maybe ECMWF is annoyed seeing their model runs posted everywhere that's why they made it totally private. Oh well there are GFS and others, or if anyone has an access, please update us.

DT now up to 1.5 accdg to JTWC satfix, I can sense at least a 25-knot TD in their bulletin soon.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 13N 139E NW SLOWLY.

[RobWESTPACWX]

My hobby keeps me busy making these videos. Also this tropical season is stupid busy too.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78nhyrzOT18[/youtube]