ATL: PHILIPPE - Post - Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109231609
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011092312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011092112, , BEST, 0, 95N, 132W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011092118, , BEST, 0, 95N, 140W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011092200, , BEST, 0, 95N, 150W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011092206, , BEST, 0, 95N, 160W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011092212, , BEST, 0, 95N, 170W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011092218, , BEST, 0, 95N, 180W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011092300, , BEST, 0, 95N, 190W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011092306, , BEST, 0, 96N, 200W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011092312, , BEST, 0, 96N, 210W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Extratropical94]

Models go here

Tropical Models 12Z:

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1611 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110923 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110923  1200   110924  0000   110924  1200   110925  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.6N  21.0W   10.1N  24.4W   10.0N  27.4W    9.7N  30.3W
BAMD     9.6N  21.0W    9.9N  24.2W    9.9N  27.1W    9.9N  29.6W
BAMM     9.6N  21.0W   10.1N  24.1W   10.2N  27.0W   10.3N  29.7W
LBAR     9.6N  21.0W    9.7N  23.4W    9.9N  25.9W   10.2N  28.4W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          40KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110925  1200   110926  1200   110927  1200   110928  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.7N  32.8W   10.6N  36.6W   12.1N  39.2W   13.3N  41.3W
BAMD    10.0N  31.9W   10.8N  35.5W   12.8N  37.8W   15.2N  39.5W
BAMM    10.4N  32.1W   11.0N  36.1W   12.4N  38.8W   13.6N  40.8W
LBAR    10.8N  30.8W   12.7N  35.2W   14.9N  38.3W   17.6N  40.2W
SHIP        52KTS          66KTS          72KTS          77KTS
DSHP        52KTS          66KTS          72KTS          77KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.6N LONCUR =  21.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =   9.5N LONM12 =  19.0W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =   9.5N LONM24 =  17.0W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  160NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[tobol.7uno]

I don't even have a comment on this one yet. Tracks...

[Hylian Auree]

Oh god, not again. If this'll develop it'll likely battle shear and recurve (probably midway between the Cape Verde Islands and Carib) before dying a painful death--the classic 2011 pattern.

[tobol.7uno]

And here is the intensity forecast...

[bg1]

And here is the intensity forecast...
http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/8702 ... ensity.gif

70 knots in the open ocean in 2011? Great joke! Ha! Tell another one!

I am so bored with this season.

[tobol.7uno]

And here is the intensity forecast...
http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/8702 ... ensity.gif

70 knots in the open ocean in 2011? Great joke! Ha! Tell another one!

I am so bored with this season.

Ya, it is like a joke, it probably will not happen. I don't think the the thing will even have a chance to develop.

[tobol.7uno]

Oh god, not again. If this'll develop it'll likely battle shear and recurve (probably midway between the Cape Verde Islands and Carib) before dying a painful death--the classic 2011 pattern.

2011 was a bad year to be a storm, everyone got mad at the ones that could survive because they would not do what they were forecast to do, and the others, well, they were just ripped and torn at and choked to death...

[tolakram]

Please keep these threads ON TOPIC. Thanks.

[CrazyC83]

I'll believe those forecasts when I see it. I can't see this doing much personally.

[bexar]

this one came out of nowhere?

I think none of the models are doing much anything with this thing.

[Extratropical94]

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INCREASING AND BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[bexar]

Up to 30% now.

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INCREASING AND BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[wxman57]

Destined for the fishes, fortunately. Looks a lot more impressive than Ophelia. Getting AODT numbers of 3.0 on my system (TS). ASCAT had a well-defined LLC and winds to 25 kts around 11Z. Certainly qualifies as at least a TD now.

[bexar]

Destined for the fishes, fortunately. Looks a lot more impressive than Ophelia. Getting AODT numbers of 3.0 on my system (TS). ASCAT had a well-defined LLC and winds to 25 kts around 11Z. Certainly qualifies as at least a TD now.

what are the conditions beyond it?

does it have a chance of making a formidale CV storm before the CV season of 2011 ends?

[wxman57]

Destined for the fishes, fortunately. Looks a lot more impressive than Ophelia. Getting AODT numbers of 3.0 on my system (TS). ASCAT had a well-defined LLC and winds to 25 kts around 11Z. Certainly qualifies as at least a TD now.

what are the conditions beyond it?

does it have a chance of making a formidable CV storm before the CV season of 2011 ends?

Oceanic heat content in its projected path isn't that great, but it may be enough to allow it to become a strong hurricane according to the sites below. However, given the stability of the tropics this season, it probably won't come close to its max potential intensity just based upon OHC:

[Hylian Auree]

1800z ASCAT shows a defined low-level circulation near 8.5N 20W, albeit still a tad messy, with light 20 kt winds; it's not entirely there yet.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW PRESSURE 1012 MB WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
9N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
180 NM OF THE LOW MAINLY IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS INDICATED ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO
12N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W.

[gatorcane]

Looks destined for the FLEMISH CAP - "Where the BIG Fish Go"

[Cranica]

That's some pretty worrisome TCHP in the Caribbean as we go into October - what's odd is that the SSTs are near-normal, but the TCHP is ridiculously high.

Any of the pro mets around know why we keep getting these insanely vigorous, well-organized waves, despite the Atlantic being so hostile? It seems weird that they keep coming off the Sahara so healthy, then fizzle in the open Atlantic.