WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

17.1N-153.6W

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.5N
151.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. A 240335Z AMSU IMAGE AND
A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE INDICATE SURFACE TROUGHING WITH NO EVIDENCE OF
A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS NO MODEL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A TUTT CELL WITH
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE FUELING
DISORGANIZED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

no model development...

[Extratropical94]

Nothing from JTWC, I think they said it dissipated yesterday or so.
JMA has it as a depression with TC formation chance in the next 24 hrs, but only on the TC page, nothing on the weather map so far.

Code: Select all

<Analyses at 26/18 UTC>
Scale   -
Intensity   -
   TD
Center position   N18°10'(18.2°)
   E139°10'(139.2°)
Direction and speed of movement   NW Slowly
Central pressure   1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity   -
Center position of probability circle   N19°10'(19.2°)
   E136°00'(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement   WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure   1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle   220km(120NM)

[StormingB81]

From JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPAAT 18.2N 139.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.POSITION POOR.MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 19.2N 136.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUSOF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.WARNING.

Nothing at all from JTWC

[phwxenthusiast]

JTWC is rating it "LOW" right now...

it does have a good circulation on it, conditions are favorable so it's possible we see a TS out of this..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Typhoon10]

TCFA issued

REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N
139.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A 262059Z CORIOLIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), BUT HAS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL
TO THE EAST (165E) OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[StormingB81]

I wonder where this one wants to go...

[StormingB81]

ECMWF puts it between Tawain and PI...

[Chacor]

WTPQ22 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 18.6N 137.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 18.9N 136.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[phwxenthusiast]

NRLMRY now showing this as 22W...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Where is John Stossel and his give me a break segment! In other words, one tropical is enough!

[dexterlabio]

Did I see a PI? Please bring this tropical cyclone away from us.

[phwxenthusiast]

JTWC forecasting a strong typhoon out of this one, yikes!

[euro6208]

WTPN33 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270600Z SEP 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.6N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.9N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.9N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.9N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.8N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.8N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 137.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS LIMITING OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH.
TD 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INCREASE IN SPEED AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM
WATER AND MAINTAINS GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. INITIAL
INTENSIFICATION MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY THE
NEARBY TUTT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED, HOWEVER, THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMO AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 270600Z SEP 11
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN23 PGTW 270600). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (NESAT)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 21W (HAITANG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING.//
NNNN

22th warned depression from jtwc...






strong typhoon forecast and close to luzon again!


TXPQ24 KNES 270928
TCSWNP

A. 22W (NONAME)

B. 27/0832Z

C. 19.0N

D. 137.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS A LITTLE MORE THAN .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET = 1.5 AND PT = 2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/0817Z 18.6N 137.8E SSMIS


...KIBLER


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.6 /1007.5mb/ 26.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.6 1.7 2.3

[euro6208]

gfs has this making landfall on luzon!



it gets warmer along the track

[bexar]

what are the models currenly sniffing on the future Nalgae?

[dexterlabio]

How can they say that the ridge will be too strong for a certain day? Just curious. I'll wait until Thursday to see if there is something to watch out from this one. The ECM latest run is a bit relieving, though they show it tracking just off the coast of Northern Luzon, the size is relatively small that could mean less scope of damaging winds.

But dang, the end of September is really something.

[Chacor]

WTPQ22 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 19.0N 137.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 281500UTC 18.9N 136.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Extratropical94]

TS 1119 (NALGAE)
Issued at 19:15 UTC, 27 September 2011
<Analyses at 27/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°00'(19.0°)
E137°35'(137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E136°20'(136.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E132°35'(132.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

[Chacor]

WTPQ22 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1119 NALGAE (1119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 19.0N 137.2E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 282100UTC 19.0N 135.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 291800UTC 19.0N 132.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 301800UTC 19.0N 128.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =