WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Depression

[dexterlabio]

^Euro shows the storm to get weaker as it tracks towards Vietnam. Maybe they see that as one of the factors to keep Nalgae not as strong as it is now in Luzon.

Landfall may be starting over Southern Isabela as I type this.

[JTE50]

nasat made SST so low,it's unfavorable for nalgae

Doesn't appear that way to me.

[phwxenthusiast]

NRLMRY up at 130kts... It's possible JTWC upgrades this to Super Typhoon, depends on landfall which is already happening...

[dexterlabio]

^Maybe they would... seems like we have a last-minute supertyphoon out here...

JMA now up to 95knots with the eye almost over land.

[dexterlabio]

quite breezy now in Katipunan, Quezon City but no rains yet. Searching through Facebook statuses, many people from Northern Luzon saying that the winds are becoming very strong.

[phwxenthusiast]

Hmm why isnt JTWC classfying this as a STY when it's already 130kt?? Is it a different wind speed or have they dropped he STY classification altogether???

[CrazyC83]

Hmm why isnt JTWC classfying this as a STY when it's already 130kt?? Is it a different wind speed or have they dropped he STY classification altogether???

Not updated yet on the advisories?

[oaba09]

we just can't get a break..

metro manila now under signal #1....The only good thing is the fact that this is a fast moving system and relatively small compared to Nesat...

Signal #1 is highest or lowest signal?

Lowest signal...The highest is signal 4

[Infdidoll]

Wow! Never underestimate the power of typhoons that grow in the warm waters of the Philippines! You guys really aren't catching a break!

Guess it's that time of year, eh?

[phwxenthusiast]

Hmm why isnt JTWC classfying this as a STY when it's already 130kt?? Is it a different wind speed or have they dropped he STY classification altogether???

Not updated yet on the advisories?

yeah i see now, the Graphic Forecast has the "Super Typhoon" wording while the Text Advisories, doesn't...

[euro6208]

wow!!!

online for the 1st time in 2 days and i see a Super Typhoon with 130 knots 1 minute winds landfall on the island of luzon! the west pacific is a monster!!!

[dexterlabio]

It's weird that there's no STY tag yet on the text advisory. Could mean that the status will be down immediately as Nalgae crosses the rugged terrain of Luzon.

[dexterlabio]

They have it also here.

[euro6208]

very strong typhoon at landfall

second straight typhoon which had both CI and Adj# peaked between 127 to 140 knots! nalgae had a well defined pinhole eye earlier so who knows how strong both nesat and nalgae got, we don't have any recon. makes me wonder if we did, i bet they would have found something INCREDIBLE!!

[euro6208]

WTPN33 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 122.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.8N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.9N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.1N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.3N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.6N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.8N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.7N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 122.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (NESAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

WTPN33 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 122.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.8N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.9N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.1N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.3N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.6N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.8N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.7N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 122.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (NESAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
***************************************************************
WDPN33 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPERTYPHOON 22W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPERTYPHOON (STY) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND FEEDER
BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A
WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT ELONGATED 20-NM EYE. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A
302155Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE
WITH TWO CONCENTRIC WALLS OF INTENSELY DEEP CONVECTIION. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
5 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TYPHOON'S PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE IS
ENHANCING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS - THIS IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION.
3. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. STY 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE WHOLE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST. NALGAE IS POISED TO MAKE IMMEDIATE LANDFALL INTO
NORTHERN LUZON, AFTERWHICH, IT WILL SIGNIFICANLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE BUT WITH
MINIMAL SLOWDOWN. BY TAU 12, IT WILL EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
AND MAINTAIN TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS ALONG WARM WATERS
(28 CELSIUS).
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 22W WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN
JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN, SLOWY WEAKENING DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL INTO
NORTHERN VIETNAM BY END OF FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING AT THE EXTENDED
TAUS. WBAR IS ON THE RIGHT AND EGRR IS TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE.
THIS TRACK FORECAST COINCIDES WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[bexar]

Keep safe guys.

I can't understand why Ophelia made headlines on CNN while this didn't
This storm is much more newsworthy.

[dexterlabio]

DOST: Heavy rain pounds Isabela, Cagayan as 'Quiel' makes landfall
10/01/2011 | 10:02 AM

"Extremely heavy" rain is now falling over Isabela and Cagayan provinces as Typhoon Quiel (Nalgae) made landfall over Isabela at 9 a.m. Saturday.

Science Undersecretary Graciano Yumul Jr. said Quiel was still over Dinapigue town, nearly an hour after making landfall over the area.

"Heavy ang bagsak ng ulan sa lugar na ito, mga 10 to 18 mm. Ang classification natin dito, extremely heavy (The rainfall in this area is extremely heavy, at 10 to 18 mm)," Yumul said in an interview on dzBB radio.

Yumul said Quiel is expected to go through Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, and exit via La Union between 4 and 6 p.m.

He said that between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., the Northern Luzon area will likely get 15 to 25 mm rainfall.

"This will add to the water level in rivers and dams," he added.

But Yumul warned several areas in Northern Luzon may be "super-saturated" due to the heavy rain.

This may cause flash floods and landslides in those areas, he said. — LBG, GMA News

[euro6208]

Keep safe guys.

I can't understand why Ophelia made headlines on CNN while this didn't
This storm is much more newsworthy.

lol! it's hilarious! i remember back when i was a kid, i would always tune in to CNN to see if they will mention our storms over here but instead they don't but instead mentions something in europe or a storm in the atlantic. . i would laugh so hard!

[euro6208]

take care to all in the philippines after a devastating monster category 4 landfall...