WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

based on nalgae's very small well defined eye, very high dvorak estimates, and overall structure, i would place the intensity of this monster at 150 knots sustained 1 minute winds!


They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Weather_boi]

Moderate rains and winds are starting to pick up here in La union, expected exit point of Nalgae.

[lilybeth]

Please everyone be safe over there - sending positive thoughts and prayers.

[oaba09]

The wind is starting to pickup here...The circulation of this sytem is smaller than Nesat so I'm not too worried about it's effect in the capital...I'm more concerned on it's effect on the already flooded provinces in the north(bulacan, nueva ecija, isabela, aurora, etc...)....

This is a double whammy to our country...

[phwxenthusiast]

wow Nalgae does have a very small wind field.. Laoag is barely reporting Tropical Storm-force gsuts right now... compare that to last week when Nesat crossed Luzon at almost the same exact position, Laoag reported sustained of over 35kts and gusts up to 50kts IIRC...

[Chacor]

50 kt winds only extend out up to 110 km.

WTPQ22 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1119 NALGAE (1119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 16.3N 120.1E GOOD
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020900UTC 16.7N 116.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 030600UTC 16.9N 114.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 040600UTC 17.2N 110.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Weather_boi]

We are now experiencing calm weather conditions. 6 hours earlier, the eye directly passed over us here in Bauang, La Union before exiting to the South China Sea. Prior to the eyewall passage, we experienced winds building up in intensity and even came to a point when the sound became howling for 30-60 minutes. Afterwhich, winds gradually died down and no apparent shift in the wind source direction (probably due to the shattered circulation of the typhoon as a result of passage over the Sierra Madre mountains). Good thing about this typhoon is that it is much more compact and moved relatively faster than Nesat though i must admit that the winds are far stronger than the latter's. What made Nesat devastating was the fact that it became a very large-sized typhoon which crossed Luzon for 12-15 hours. Nalgae crossed Luzon by only half of Nesat's time.

[JTE50]

What do you estimate the winds were at your location?

[dexterlabio]

Seems like Nalgae has weakened considerably after crossing Luzon. It looks like a weakening Cat1 typhoon. Euro could be right in showing this system weakening considerably until it hits Vietnam.

So far, it was less destructive than Nesat here in Metro Manila. The worst of the winds and rains occurred from 12 to 4pm PH time, had the trees swaying and caused localized flooding, but now the floods subsided in my area. Tonight we are having some cool breeze, I know this is still an effect of the storm's outer bands but it feels more like the Christmas breeze. lol. Having said that, I just noticed that the wet southwest monsoon is nearing its end as the colder northeasterly windflow strengthens, could be a signal of the change in season (quite OT).

[Weather_boi]

I peg it at 140-160 kph 1-minute sustained winds. Hey dexter, what do you mean by change in season? Is it more than just a chang from summer to fall? Or are you referring to more storms tracking towards the PI? please shed some light

[JTE50]

We are now experiencing calm weather conditions. 6 hours earlier, the eye directly passed over us here in Bauang, La Union before exiting to the South China Sea. Prior to the eyewall passage, we experienced winds building up in intensity and even came to a point when the sound became howling for 30-60 minutes. Afterwhich, winds gradually died down and no apparent shift in the wind source direction (probably due to the shattered circulation of the typhoon as a result of passage over the Sierra Madre mountains). Good thing about this typhoon is that it is much more compact and moved relatively faster than Nesat though i must admit that the winds are far stronger than the latter's. What made Nesat devastating was the fact that it became a very large-sized typhoon which crossed Luzon for 12-15 hours. Nalgae crossed Luzon by only half of Nesat's time.

I sent you a PM

[dexterlabio]

I peg it at 140-160 kph 1-minute sustained winds. Hey dexter, what do you mean by change in season? Is it more than just a chang from summer to fall? Or are you referring to more storms tracking towards the PI? please shed some light

Well I don't wish to infer anything about the storms making landfall, but I'm sure many in the Philippines (especially Luzon) know that storms tend to become furious and land-threatening during "-ber" months. All I can say is that the southwest monsoon is starting to fade, and the cooler and drier Northeast monsoon is about to set in, meaning a colder season. If anyone knows Ryan Maue, the US met, he's saying that the impact of winter season (particularly in the Northern Hemisphere) this year could be greater, thus bringing colder temperature. After Nesat at Nalgae, I am now looking forward to a cooler Christmas season...ahead of the possible TC occurrences before December.

And this became more OT now.

[euro6208]

i feel for the philippines. they got hit by 2 major typhoons in just a week! what more is in store for them during the last few months of the year?

[euro6208]

very small wind field. although landfall intensity is at category 4 super typhoon strength of 130 knots 1 minute winds. i would nudge the intensity a bit higher to 150 knots 1 minute landfall category 5 based on as said earlier on nalgae's very small wind field....god bless the philippines...


They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[euro6208]

WTPN33 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 117.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 117.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.4N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.6N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.9N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.2N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.8N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.0N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.9N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 116.8E.
TYPHOON 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN





nesat made landfall in northern hainan island and northern vietnam now nalgae threatens southern hainan and central vietnam...typhoon devastated areas...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just posted a video update on Nalgae, good news is that it really is weakening out there due to the shear coming in from the North

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RzWQPYxm9Q[/youtube]

[Chacor]

WTPQ22 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1119 NALGAE (1119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 17.5N 114.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 17.6N 112.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 041800UTC 17.7N 110.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 051800UTC 18.3N 108.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[euro6208]

WTPN33 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 110.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 110.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.2N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.2N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7N 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.0N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 109.7E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 24 FEET.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TS 22W HAS TRACKED INLAND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN HAINAN. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, AIDED IN PART BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN
HAINAN, AND IS BEING SHEARED SHARPLY TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM PRESSURE REPORTS FROM SANYA,
HAINAN, WHICH WAS APPROXIMATELY 40 NM AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT 040600Z. TS 22W HAS TRACKED ABRUPTLY
POLEWARD TOWARDS A TRANSITORY WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE STORM WILL RESUME WESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHINESE COAST. THE 040000Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM HAIKOU, CHINA SHOWS STRONG EASTERLIES BEGINNING AT
THE GRADIENT LEVEL, INDICATING THE RIDGE IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AND
WILL BLOCK FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT. THE PGTW 040000Z UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TS 22W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIMETER OF THE ANTICYCLONE,
WHICH IS COMPENSATING SOME OF THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN HAINAN AND THE VIETNAMESE COAST ARE 28 TO 30
DEGREES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL STRETCHING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. BECAUSE OF THE WARM WATERS AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER
TS 22W MOVES OUT OF HAINAN AND INTO OPEN WATERS. DESPITE THE RE-
INTENSIFICATION HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO
LAST LONG ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL, AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER
LAND.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
NNNN




earlier made landfall in hainan island.

SSD OVERLAND NALGAE

very little convection...

[Chacor]

WTPQ22 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1119 NALGAE (1119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 18.4N 108.8E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 18.3N 107.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 061200UTC 17.8N 105.8E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Chacor]

WTPQ22 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1119 NALGAE (1119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 18N 108E
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA =