WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Depression

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oaba09
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#61 Postby oaba09 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:05 am

LATEST FROM JMA:

Image

TY 1119 (NALGAE)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 September 2011
<Analyses at 30/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N17°40'(17.7°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 30/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 01/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E120°20'(120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E116°55'(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Typhoon

#62 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:12 am

I actually think it its now getting there...if you know what I mean...

Image
saved

Image
from PAGASA sat image
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Typhoon

#63 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:32 am

Image

I bet this one is going to be stronger than Nesat (Nesat peaked as a Cat3, right?)

Well I don't know if it's bad to be fascinated by this storm when people in the northern provinces might get pounded again. But the beauty of this storm right now is undeniable. I guess I'm the only one seeing these things happen at this very moment.
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#64 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:12 am

30/0901 UTC 17.7N 126.3E T5.5/5.5 NALGAE -- West Pacific
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#65 Postby phwxenthusiast » Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:18 am

now a Cat 4 from 12z JTWC...
115G140

could peak at 125kt later this morning just before landfall (Philippine Time)...
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#66 Postby Chacor » Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:28 am

90 kt from JMA at 12z. 15z warning due in about 15 minutes.

WTPQ22 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1119 NALGAE (1119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 17.5N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 190NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 17.2N 119.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 021200UTC 17.3N 115.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 031200UTC 17.4N 111.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
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#67 Postby oaba09 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:35 am

15Z update from PAGASA:
Image

Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "QUIEL"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 30 September 2011 Typhoon "QUIEL" has intensified further and seriously threatens Cagayan-Isabela as it moves closer.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 340 kms East of Tuguegarao City

Coordinates: 17.3°N, 125.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
Gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: Forecast to move West at 26 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday evening:
120 kms West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
Sunday evening:
720 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur

Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Cagayan
Isabela
Northern Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Vizcaya
Ifugao
Mt. Province
Kalinga
Apayao
Abra

Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Rest of Aurora
Nueva Ecija
Pangasinan
Benguet
La Union
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Calayan Group of Is.
Babuyan Group of Is.

Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds)
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island
Bulacan
Pampanga
Tarlac
Zambales
Batanes
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#68 Postby oaba09 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:53 am

15Z update from JMA:
Image

TY 1119 (NALGAE)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 30 September 2011
<Analyses at 30/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N17°25'(17.4°)
E124°55'(124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N350km(190NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 01/03 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 01/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°05'(17.1°)
E119°00'(119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E115°00'(115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E111°25'(111.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
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#69 Postby Chacor » Fri Sep 30, 2011 1:09 pm

Just waiting for JMA to issue their 1800 SAREP.
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#70 Postby Chacor » Fri Sep 30, 2011 1:11 pm

Nalgae down to T5.5 from JMA from previous T6.0.
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#71 Postby Dave C » Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:41 pm

Lastest sat pic. shows very impressive CDO and eye. Still tracking SW. Sorry can't get cut and paste. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
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Re:

#72 Postby Fyzn94 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:52 pm

Dave C wrote:Lastest sat pic. shows very impressive CDO and eye. Still tracking SW. Sorry can't get cut and paste. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

I've got you covered.

Image
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#73 Postby Dave C » Fri Sep 30, 2011 4:10 pm

It also seems the eye is larger than the pinhole size one earlier. Worse case scenerio, a completed EWRC just 6 or so hrs before landfall. :double:
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#74 Postby oaba09 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:54 pm

we just can't get a break..

metro manila now under signal #1....The only good thing is the fact that this is a fast moving system and relatively small compared to Nesat...
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Re:

#75 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:01 pm

oaba09 wrote:we just can't get a break..

metro manila now under signal #1....The only good thing is the fact that this is a fast moving system and relatively small compared to Nesat...


Signal #1 is highest or lowest signal?
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#76 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:45 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2011 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 16:49:55 N Lon : 122:50:17 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 934.2mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -54.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.1 degrees
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#77 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:01 pm

30/2032 UTC 16.9N 123.5E T6.0/6.0 NALGAE -- West Pacific

From a while ago. The ADT has risen considerably since then. Looks like about 125 kt.
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Typhoon

#78 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:03 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Signal #1 is highest or lowest signal?


Lowest storm warning signal, at least TD-force winds are expected. As of now the sky is dark but no rains yet.
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#79 Postby yulou » Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:41 pm

Image
we can see the eye from vis,it's very small and dim
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#80 Postby yulou » Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:51 pm

nasat made SST so low,it's unfavorable for nalgae
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