ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[HurrMark]

I mean for the foreseeable future...seeing that we have gone 3 weeks since the last US landfall of any class (which is far below normal this time of year)...and the fact that it is very unlikely that anything will hit the US for the next week or two at least), this might be the biggest "impact", although a TD or maybe a weak TS is probably as strong as it will get.

[wxman57]

30% chance of development looks quite generous, like about 30% too generous. Wind shear is increasing steadily as the moisture is drawn northward up the cold front.

[GCANE]

From JB:

TPC now moderate risk with area I have been yapping about east of Fla. WRF rain swath shows track

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%

Nothing to see here.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. INSTEAD...THERE IS A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[CrazyC83]

24/2345 UTC 29.5N 78.1W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic

Stick a fork in it.

[sandyb]

[quote="HurrMark"]This could be the biggest tropical "threat" to the US in quite a while (notice I use quotes)...although there is a concern that the remnants could result in flooding in areas that are already waterlogged (just my opinion).[/qu
not so long ago we had Irene here in NC so its not been quite a while and with all the rain we are having right now we dont need much wind or we wont have any trees left here!

[HurrMark]

By quite a while, I mean that this is probably would have been the only tropical threat for the US from now into the future for at least an extended period of time...at least based on model data. I am not downplaying Irene, and people are still struggling with the after effects of it. But if anyone wanted "tropical action" in the US...this is probably it until sometime in October, when it may be too late. That said, it looks like the window for this one has closed.

[fci]

By quite a while, I mean that this is probably would have been the only tropical threat for the US from now into the future for at least an extended period of time...at least based on model data. I am not downplaying Irene, and people are still struggling with the after effects of it. But if anyone wanted "tropical action" in the US...this is probably it until sometime in October, when it may be too late. That said, it looks like the window for this one has closed.

I think East coast tropical action may be done as it relates strikes from the east or southeast but the NW Carib will be open for business very soon and the East coast can certainly get drenched on from a storm hitting Florida and heading up the coast or up the Appie Trail.

My eyes are tuned to that boiling pot down there for the next 6 weeks......

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Hasta la vista!

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[HurrMark]

By quite a while, I mean that this is probably would have been the only tropical threat for the US from now into the future for at least an extended period of time...at least based on model data. I am not downplaying Irene, and people are still struggling with the after effects of it. But if anyone wanted "tropical action" in the US...this is probably it until sometime in October, when it may be too late. That said, it looks like the window for this one has closed.

I think East coast tropical action may be done as it relates strikes from the east or southeast but the NW Carib will be open for business very soon and the East coast can certainly get drenched on from a storm hitting Florida and heading up the coast or up the Appie Trail.

My eyes are tuned to that boiling pot down there for the next 6 weeks......

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is just my guess, and should not be taken as gospel....but I think that given the pattern this year, anything forming in the western Caribbean will probably be shunted south of the US, just like last year. I am starting to think that the US will be more likely than not be spared another direct hit this year. Again, this is not official, so please don't take this seriously.

[Dave]

Cancel this one..

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[brunota2003]

3. REMARKS:
A. INVEST MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 25/1800Z FOR SUSPECT AREA IN
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 25/1245Z.

However, I did not see a cancellation of today's flight into Ophelia.

[jimvb]

I can't see any reason for getting concerned about Invest 91L. None of the most recent GFS runs show anything except for the wet weather this pinwheel storm out in the Midwest is generating on the Atlantic coast. No Richmond TV meteorologist is mentioning it in their forecasts. The NHC is not talking about it - the latest TWO talks about Ophelia, then says, "Elsewhere ... tropical storm development is not expected...". Even this board - Storm2k - does not show it in its map. So to me it's a non-storm.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneWarning92]

IMO, since this season has clearly been quantity over quality, if anything forms in the western Caribbean in the next 6 weeks, it will likely not be a strong one. I mean, its not a guarantee there will not be any majors, but i think the odds of one this year are pretty slim due to the hostile conditions in the basin. I just dont see only one small part of the basin spin up a cat 3 or 4, when throughout the season, practically the entire Atlantic Ocean was dead in terms of development.

[jimvb]

Hurricanes Irene, Katia, and Maria have pretty much raked up the Atlantic and dredged up cold water from the depths, so future storms there will be weak.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.