SWIO: INVEST 90S

[Chacor]

Just south of the Equator at 3.2S, 57.9E.

[Chacor]

Now medium:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7S 57.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.5S 57.8E, APPROXIMATELY 795 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MOGADISHU, SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATTELITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
FEEDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041425Z
CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED BAND WRAPPING INTO A CLEARLY
DEFINED LLCC, AND CONFIRMS THE FEEDER BAND ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LAY
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WITH WEAK
DIVERGENCE AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 140552Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, YET WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 20
KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND 10 KNOTS IN ALL OTHER
QUADRANTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17
TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION, AND LACK OF VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Chacor]

Down to low...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.5S 57.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8S 58.0E, APPROXIMATELY 880 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATTELITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND DISPLACED ABOUT 2 DEGREES TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A
051114Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. VWS APPEARS TO BE
OFFSETTING THE GOOD OUTFLOW, CAUSING THE SYSTEM'S DETERIORATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.