EPAC: IRWIN - Post - Tropical

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Re: EPAC: IRWIN - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2011 3:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2011

THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF IRWIN INCREASED AGAIN OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH TOPS COOLING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN TAKING ON A MORE BANDED STRUCTURE. BASED ON A SHIP
OBSERVATION OF 37-KT WINDS AND THE 18Z TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE...THE
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. IRWIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CHARACTERIZED BY
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...THE COOL WAKE LEFT FROM HURRICANE JOVA...AND
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. DESPITE THIS...MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE
SPORADIC NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE FOR THE
FIRST 72 HOURS. GRADUAL DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5 IS EXPECTED
AS THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
VORTEX WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING BY THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/4...AS IRWIN IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MEXICO. THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH BUILDS WESTWARD AND TAKES ON A MORE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. AFTER THAT TIME THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A SLOW AND/OR ERRATIC MOTION...AS INDICATED BY THE LARGE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
TRENDED TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME THE NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING LITTLE OR NO MOTION AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 DUE
TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.0N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.2N 107.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.1N 107.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 14.7N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 15.0N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 15.0N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 15.0N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: IRWIN - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2011 9:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2011

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF IRWIN MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MEXICAN
COAST...INSTEAD OF TURNING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER. THIS
FLOW PATTERN IS LIKELY PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH BY
ITSELF WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS A
POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCE...MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
WITH IRWIN EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS EVAPORATED. CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT RANGE FROM 30 TO
50 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME A LITTLE MORE APPARENT JUST BEFORE
SUNSET...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF MICROWAVE DATA...IRWIN IS
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A 12-HR MOTION OF
165/6 KT. A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOULD CAUSE IRWIN
TO TURN SOUTHWARD SOON AND WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BROAD
LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT WESTWARD JUST FAR ENOUGH TO CAUSE IRWIN TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE
ERRATICALLY. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO
AND EVEN SUGGEST THAT IRWIN COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON DAY 4
AND TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DAY 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT
IS OTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IRWIN THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...THE COLD OCEANIC WAKE LEFT BY HURRICANE
JOVA...A DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR MASS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER AS IRWIN MOVES SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM
MEXICO...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A MOISTER AIR MASS...AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE. THESE FACTORS COULD FOSTER
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CONFLICTING
SIGNALS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO HOLD THE INTENSITY
STEADY FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
TRANSITION TO A REMNANT LOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF
THE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS ANOTHER REASON TO NOT SHOW WEAKENING DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.7N 106.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 16.8N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.6N 107.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 14.5N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 15.0N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 15.0N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 14.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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#63 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 15, 2011 3:25 am

Someone put Irwin out of his misery.
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Re: EPAC: IRWIN - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2011 3:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2011

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IRWIN BECAME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
IT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SEPARATED SINCE THAT TIME. THIS
ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...BUT THIS
COULD BE GENEROUS. IRWIN LIES OVER THE COOL WATER WAKE OF
JOVA...AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IRWIN IS
CURRENTLY OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 23C. THESE COOL WATERS...STABLE
AIR...AND AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRWIN TO
WEAKEN SOME AND EVENTUALLY DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN TWO TO
THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER AND IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

IRWIN IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. A TURN TO THE
WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
IRWIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...COULD COME TO A HALT...PERHAPS REVERSING
EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES SHALLOW IN NATURE AND IS
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.6N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 14.8N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.3N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 14.2N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 14.1N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 14.0N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z 14.0N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: IRWIN - Tropical Depression

#65 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:38 pm

Downgraded to Tropical Depression

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2011

THE STRUCTURE OF IRWIN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER RE-FORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING...
BUT THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHRINKING WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
-50C CLOUD TOPS REMAINING. A DELAYED 1708 UTC ASCAT PASS RECEIVED
JUST A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ONLY 20-25 KT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THE INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED
TO 30 KT. IRWIN IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND
FROM JOVA TOWARD WARMER WATER...BUT THE DAMAGE MAY ALREADY BE DONE.
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST NOW MAKES IRWIN A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS...BUT THIS
COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY IF SUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION DOES
NOT RE-DEVELOP. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM...WHICH IT DOES BY DAY 3...SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HOLD
OFF DISSIPATION UNTIL DAY 5.

IRWIN IS MOVING 200 DEGREES AT 8 KT...CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC...AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING IS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IRWIN IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
BY 48 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW COULD THEN BEGIN TO MOVE A LITTLE
FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY DAY 4 AS IT BECOMES INFLUENCED BY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT THEN IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST ON DAYS 3
AND 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 14.8N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 14.2N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 14.0N 108.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 14.1N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 14.2N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 13.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z 13.0N 108.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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#66 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 16, 2011 9:03 am

Irwin is being very stubborn, while just barely clinging onto life. So far, everyone has underestimated this system.
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Re: EPAC: IRWIN - Tropical Depression

#67 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2011 9:41 am

Still hanging around.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011

DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED...AGAIN...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 0600 UTC...AND IT HAS EXPANDED SINCE THAT
TIME. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE. IRWIN COULD
BE NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AGAIN...AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. HOWEVER...THE LONG-TERM TREND
SHOULD BE FOR IRWIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AND
DRY AIR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED
FROM EARLIER...SHOWING IRWIN DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36
TO 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRWIN IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...
AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 230/4. THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW IRWIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...TO MEANDER
IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT FIRST WESTWARD
AND THEN BACK SOUTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 14.1N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.1N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 14.2N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 14.2N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 14.1N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 13.7N 108.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z 13.5N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: IRWIN - Tropical Depression

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:41 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011

ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN VANISHED...LEAVING IRWIN
AS A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. GIVEN THE CURRENT PRESENTATION OF THE
CYCLONE AND THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND AN
INCREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRWIN TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NOW SHOWS IRWIN DISSIPATING IN THREE TO
FOUR DAYS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EASY TO LOCATE...THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 225/4.
HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IRWIN MAY BE
MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
UNCHANGED. IRWIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE WEAK SYSTEM COULD CURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 13.6N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 13.8N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 14.1N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 14.2N 109.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 14.0N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z 13.4N 108.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: IRWIN - Tropical Depression

#69 Postby Shuriken » Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:14 pm

Irwin is being very stubborn, while just barely clinging onto life. So far, everyone has underestimated this system.
EPAC systems are notoriously hard to kill until they run over cold water. The remnant low could meander for days without dissipating. waiting for another chance.
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Re: EPAC: IRWIN - Post - Tropical

#70 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2011 9:43 pm

Finnally,is over for Irwin!

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IRWIN HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME
LESS DEFINED. FOR THESE REASONS...IRWIN NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE SYSTEM
COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER BURST OR TWO OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE
LOW IT SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THE
UPDATED NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION WITHIN 72 HOURS.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH
BOTH SHOW DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON IRWIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 14.1N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 17/1200Z 14.5N 108.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z 14.6N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 14.4N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 14.1N 109.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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