EPAC: JOVA - Post - Tropical

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EPAC: JOVA - Post - Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:57 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110051650
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011100512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982011
EP, 98, 2011100418, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1001W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2011100500, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1011W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2011100506, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1024W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2011100512, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1033W, 25, 1009, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2011 12:01 pm

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 051652
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1652 UTC WED OCT 5 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982011) 20111005 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111005  1200   111006  0000   111006  1200   111007  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.8N 103.3W   10.0N 104.8W   10.4N 106.1W   10.9N 107.2W
BAMD     9.8N 103.3W   10.0N 105.1W   10.3N 106.8W   10.9N 108.3W
BAMM     9.8N 103.3W   10.1N 105.0W   10.6N 106.8W   11.4N 108.4W
LBAR     9.8N 103.3W   10.0N 105.4W   10.7N 107.8W   11.3N 110.0W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          31KTS          38KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          31KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111007  1200   111008  1200   111009  1200   111010  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.7N 108.2W   14.0N 109.6W   16.0N 110.1W   18.1N 110.5W
BAMD    11.6N 109.7W   13.0N 111.3W   14.3N 111.5W   16.4N 110.3W
BAMM    12.2N 109.9W   14.2N 111.7W   15.9N 112.0W   17.9N 111.5W
LBAR    12.6N 112.2W   14.8N 115.8W   16.3N 117.1W   18.5N 116.2W
SHIP        43KTS          49KTS          50KTS          53KTS
DSHP        43KTS          49KTS          50KTS          53KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.8N LONCUR = 103.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =   9.7N LONM12 = 101.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =   9.6N LONM24 =  97.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
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#3 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 05, 2011 12:03 pm

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2011 12:19 pm

Image

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2011 12:50 pm

50%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2011 5:56 pm

It looks like this area of interest 98E is organizing on a good pace.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#7 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Oct 05, 2011 6:17 pm

:uarrow: And to think most of us closed off the season in September. I guess thats why it runs to November 30th :)
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2011 6:55 pm

Up to 80%


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:19 pm

Models have Mexico on their tracks with GFDL and HWRF having it as a hurricane before landfall.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#10 Postby HurricaneRobert » Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:01 pm

Image

lol four cyclones
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#11 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:49 pm

NRL showing 10E.TEN.
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#12 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:50 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep982011_ep102011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110060232
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 10, 2011, DB, O, 2011100512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP102011
EP, 10, 2011100418, , BEST, 0, 93N, 1001W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 10, 2011100500, , BEST, 0, 94N, 1011W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 10, 2011100506, , BEST, 0, 94N, 1021W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 10, 2011100512, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1029W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 10, 2011100518, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1037W, 30, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 210, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 10, 2011100600, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1047W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 50, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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#13 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:57 pm

Image

Waiting to see if NHC do an advisory now or hold it off another hour as a special.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:02 pm

It passed 8 PM PDT so probably they will have a special advisory.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:11 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT WED OCT 05 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 105.1W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT WED OCT 05 2011

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO HAS INCREASED. A CDO-LIKE FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES TO -90C HAS RECENTLY FORMED...WITH MICROWAVE DATA
SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC BUT
THIS WAS BEFORE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE MASS DEVELOPED. BASED ON THE
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/09. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS...AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD ERODE THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE
TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD. THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 72 HOURS AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER OF WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE
REGION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF ALL OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE BAMS AND
ECMWF MODELS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE
INITIAL MOTION AND LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION...SO THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS OF RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE.

SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES CURRENTLY DIAGNOSE MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT SHEAR OF ABOUT THIS MAGNITUDE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS BY SHOWING ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS
TIME. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN STRENGTH AROUND THE POINT
OF RECURVATURE AND JUST PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASE IN
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 10.0N 105.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 10.2N 106.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 10.6N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 11.1N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 11.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 13.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 15.6N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 17.4N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC: TEN - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby Macrocane » Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:18 pm

According to the models it will be a very wet trouble for Mexico, and could be a wind problem if it intensifies more than forecasted.
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:26 pm

Image
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#18 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:45 pm

Next name is Irwin.
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby bexar » Thu Oct 06, 2011 3:53 am

Now forecasted to make landfall at 65 KTs, this could spell trouble for Western Mexico. :eek:
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2011 5:17 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 105.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011

VERY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT
KEEPING THE WIND SPEED AT 30 KT AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST
UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 36
HOURS...ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN BY DAY 3 AS A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...CAUSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN EARLIER...AND GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN...THE NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS STILL FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 10.3N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 10.7N 106.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 11.5N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 12.4N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 13.6N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 15.1N 109.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 18.3N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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