EPAC: JOVA - Post - Tropical

[cycloneye]

SHIP intensity goes way up to cat 2 after being not as agressive in past runs.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 070056
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC FRI OCT 7 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA (EP102011) 20111007 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111007  0000   111007  1200   111008  0000   111008  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N 108.0W   13.8N 109.6W   14.8N 110.8W   15.9N 111.8W
BAMD    12.8N 108.0W   13.7N 109.6W   14.8N 110.5W   15.9N 111.0W
BAMM    12.8N 108.0W   14.0N 109.6W   15.3N 110.5W   16.4N 110.8W
LBAR    12.8N 108.0W   13.7N 109.3W   15.0N 110.6W   15.9N 111.4W
SHIP        40KTS          48KTS          60KTS          71KTS
DSHP        40KTS          48KTS          60KTS          71KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111009  0000   111010  0000   111011  0000   111012  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N 112.6W   17.1N 112.1W   19.7N 106.1W   21.5N 105.0W
BAMD    17.1N 111.0W   19.3N 110.0W   21.8N 106.3W   24.3N  99.3W
BAMM    17.5N 110.7W   19.1N 109.0W   21.2N 105.0W   22.2N 100.4W
LBAR    16.8N 111.6W   18.9N 110.7W   21.9N 108.6W   26.3N 104.6W
SHIP        80KTS          88KTS          61KTS          57KTS
DSHP        80KTS          88KTS          61KTS          33KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR = 108.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  11.8N LONM12 = 106.3W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  10.0N LONM24 = 104.6W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =   40NM RD34NW =  40NM
 


[brunota2003]

brunota, do you see RI occuring with Jova,Irwin or both?

As of right now, I do not see anything with Jova to indicate RI. RI is pretty tricky with systems that are not yet well established. Usually it works better with strong TS'/hurricanes, where the inner core is present. I think Jova is, currently, the less likely of the two to possibly go through RI. Jova's inner core isn't there yet, whereas Irwin is pulling together pretty quick. Irwin is hard too, as the last pass that was morphed into MIMIC-TC only caught half the circulation, so there's a nice line going right through the middle of the storm But honestly, it would not shock me if both ended up RIing at some point in their lifetimes.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bexar]

Jova's track eerily reminds me of 2002's Kenna, hopefully she will not explode though.

[brunota2003]

Just so that y'all can see what I mean about a line, here is a screen shot from CIMSS (this is for Irwin, but related to my post above):

[Florida1118]

Well thats pretty

[cycloneye]

This is a FASCINATING setup. Twin tropical cyclones, first we get Fujiwhara, rapid intensification, and then they both recurve south of the 26C isotherm (south of the 28C isotherm if you believe the current NHC tracks verbatim) and hit Jalisco state between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta within a few days of each other, both possibly being major hurricanes. AND this is the situation I've been praying for all year here in Texas, at least since Don proved we couldn't rely on the Atlantic to bring us any rain. Hopefully, the moisture won't be shunted too far south to help us out here.

Good analysis of this complex situation. Now you can add 99E to the mix,although with the two stronger cyclones to its west,I dont see that one doing much developing.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011

JOVA IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS HAS DISPLACED THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/9. JOVA IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNIDTED STATES DIGS SOUTHWARD. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN TO THE WEST...SHOULD STEER JOVA
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/09 KT...BASED MOSTLY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIXES. JOVA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 650 NMI EAST OF
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM IRWIN. ALTHOUGH IRWIN PRESENTLY HAS
BETTER BANDING FEATURES...THE TWO CYCLONES ARE COMPARABLE IN SIZE.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER...SOME BINARY/FUJIWHARA
INTERACTION IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD
BRING THE TWO CYCLONES CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND ALSO SLOW DOWN THE
FORWARD SPEED OF BOTH SYSTEMS. BY 72 HOURS...A BROAD MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE
WESTERN PORTION OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH
OF JOVA. THE RESULT SHOULD BE FOR JOVA TO GRADUALLY RECURVE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS
FAR SOUTH AND AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. GIVEN THAT AT
LEAST HALF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LIES TO THE
WEST OF AND...THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER-AIR
OBSERVING NETWORK...IT WOULD PRUDENT NOT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
TRACK CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C... IN A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REGIME...AND IN A VERY MOIST MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HUMIDITY VALUES OF 70-80 PERCENT. THIS WOULD
USUALLY EQUATES TO A PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR STEADY OR EVEN RAPID
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT
REFLECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKE JOVA A
HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...WITH STEADY WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER THAT.
IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS STEADILY STRENGTHEN JOVA TO
85 KT AND 100 KT...RESPECTIVELY...BY 96 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN INCREASED ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE HWRF MODEL SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH JOVA IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND
OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY 120 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IS
BEING INDICATED AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE OUTER WIND FIELD...WHICH
COULD STILL CONTAIN TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE AT THAT TIME.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4
AND 5 SINCE THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AT
THAT THOSE TIME PERIODS ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 13.0N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 13.9N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.8N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.7N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 16.6N 109.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 18.0N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 20.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 21.5N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

This is the corrected discussion from the 8 PM PDT advisory.


TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011

CORRECTED INCORRECTLY TRANSMITTED DISCUSSION

JOVA IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS HAS DISPLACED THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/9. JOVA IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES DIGS SOUTHWARD. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN TO THE WEST...SHOULD STEER JOVA
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING JOVA
TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 4-5 DAYS TIME. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IN
MEXICO. TWO OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH BOTH SHOW
A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE AND THUS CALL FOR
LANDFALL FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHILE THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN JOVA AND IRWIN MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
STILL POSSIBLE....CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SYSTEMS WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIRECT
INTERACTION.

WHILE JOVA REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...THE CURRENT SHEAR IS NOT INITIALIZED PROPERLY BY ANY
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THAT MAKES IT A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN IT MAY DIMINISH. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE
SHEAR WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AFTER
24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITIES BEFORE LANDFALL BASED
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS...WHICH FORECAST MORE TIME OVER WATER...SHOW JOVA
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING MEXICO.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4
AND 5 SINCE THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AT
THAT THOSE TIME PERIODS ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 13.0N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 13.9N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.8N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.7N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 16.6N 109.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 18.0N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 20.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 21.5N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011

AN 0414 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOVA IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...AND ABOUT 50 KT
FROM THE OBJECTIVE ADT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45
KT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING JOVA
IS FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS JOVA MOVES
BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THEREFORE...CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS INDICATING
ABOUT A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES VERY NEAR THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY NOT HAVE
BEEN RAISED ENOUGH. THE FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AFTER 48 HOURS AND IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE...WHICH APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO
STABLE AND TOO WARM IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE
FORECAST...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER 72 HOURS
BEFORE JOVA REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10 KT. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS TURN...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS JOVA TO THE MEXICAN COAST ALMOST A
DAY EARLIER THAN THE REST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
MAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS AND SHOWS JOVA REACHING THE COAST JUST
BEFORE 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 13.4N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 14.1N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 14.9N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.8N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 16.6N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 20.5N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

Disc 7 still not out.

[brunota2003]

Waiting for CIMSS to update to see if there are any signs of RI.

[Extratropical94]

Forecast to become a MH:

TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011

JOVA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
CURVED BAND FEATURES FORMING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
SOME OVERSHOOTING TOPS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE A RATHER WIDE SPREAD THIS MORNING...
RANGING FROM ABOUT 40 KT FROM CIMSS AMSU TO 65 KT FROM TAFB. THE
OVERALL MICROWAVE STRUCTURE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS ONLY RAISED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. JOVA SHOULD
HAVE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER...ALONG WITH WARM
SSTS ALONG ITS PATH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS RAISED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS BETWEEN THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. THIS FORECAST COULD BE STILL
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE GFDL/HWRF MAKE JOVA A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 KT. JOVA IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWING
DOWN AND TURNING TO THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND AN
ERODING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER JOVA TOWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS... THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH THE GFS
MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL...RESULTING IN A SPREAD OF 500 N MI
BY DAY 4. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASING...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE
FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 13.7N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.4N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.2N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.8N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.6N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 18.2N 107.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

CIMSS finally updated, and the indicator first appeared diffusely around 07 UTC...usually this would equate to RI starting around the 14 to 16 UTC time frame (10 am to 12 pm EDT). However, since that time, the area has gotten better defined, and I'd like to use 13 UTC as the time...which would put RI starting around 19 to 21 UTC (3 to 5 pm EDT). Perhaps there will be "two" bursts of RI...running through the afternoon at a slower rate and then ramping up tonight. That would not be the first time I've seen that with a system...there is no defined period between the two sets of RI, it's just the first one is usually around 30 knots or so, and the second is much more rapid and occurs within the span of several hours usually.

As far as a forecast goes? 30 knot minimum would put Jova at 80 knots by 11 am tomorrow (8 am BT/11 am EDT NHC advisory has Jova at 50 knots). However, if there is the 1-2 punch...Jova could strengthen up to 65 or 70 knots by this evening...then overnight possibly jump to 100 or 110 knots. Obviously, actually pinning down the amount of RI is extremely difficult at best. In this case, conditions seem almost perfect...but am not sure about what effects Irwin might have on Jova trying to RI, as well as just how solid the inner core is and how long it'll take to finish pulling together.

[cycloneye]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

CIMSS finally updated, and the indicator first appeared diffusely around 07 UTC...usually this would equate to RI starting around the 14 to 16 UTC time frame (10 am to 12 pm EDT). However, since that time, the area has gotten better defined, and I'd like to use 13 UTC as the time...which would put RI starting around 19 to 21 UTC (3 to 5 pm EDT). Perhaps there will be "two" bursts of RI...running through the afternoon at a slower rate and then ramping up tonight. That would not be the first time I've seen that with a system...there is no defined period between the two sets of RI, it's just the first one is usually around 30 knots or so, and the second is much more rapid and occurs within the span of several hours usually.

As far as a forecast goes? 30 knot minimum would put Jova at 80 knots by 11 am tomorrow (8 am BT/11 am EDT NHC advisory has Jova at 50 knots). However, if there is the 1-2 punch...Jova could strengthen up to 65 or 70 knots by this evening...then overnight possibly jump to 100 or 110 knots. Obviously, actually pinning down the amount of RI is extremely difficult at best. In this case, conditions seem almost perfect...but am not sure about what effects Irwin might have on Jova trying to RI, as well as just how solid the inner core is and how long it'll take to finish pulling together.

Oh boy,if your forecast pans out,the folks in Mexico would have to deal with a monster cane,but hopefully you are wrong.

[Extratropical94]

What always makes me worried is the fact that they gave her a percent chance for becoming Cat. 5 so far out.
That's usually not a very good sign, especially for a landfaller.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

Yes! recon for Jova with first mission on Sunday afternoon with another one on Monday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 07 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-129

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX TROPICAL STORM
JOVA AT 9/1800Z NEAR 17.0N 108.8W
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX TROPICAL STORM
JOVA AT 10/1800Z NEAR 18.7N 106.7W.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Up to 55kts.

EP, 10, 2011100718, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1104W, 55, 997, TS

[Dave C]

I may be wrong but looking at the visable loop the northern part of the LLC is exposed as the outflow from the western system is moving in from the north. The LLC itself seems just tucked under the north edge of the convection. Just my observation.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011

THE STRUCTURE OF JOVA CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY SHEAR. VERY DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 55 KT AND 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB...AND A
LARGE AREA OF 45 KT WIND VECTORS WERE NOTED IN A RECENT ASCAT PASS.
THE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATE APPEARS TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE GIVEN
THE SHEAR PATTERN AND THE ASCAT DATA... SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS SET TO 55 KT. THE CURRENT NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD ABATE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS JOVA MOVES CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL SHOW A SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION BY LATE SATURDAY.
THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION REMAINS BETWEEN THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS AND
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/7. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO. BY LATE SATURDAY...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS LIKELY DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
REMAIN RATHER NOTABLE...ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER HUGE DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT REDUCED. THIS TYPE OF SITUATION USUALLY WARRANTS A
FORECAST CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL
SOUTHEASTWARD TREND IN THAT GUIDANCE...THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED
IN THAT DIRECTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 14.6N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 15.3N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 15.9N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 16.5N 109.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 18.2N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 20.5N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

8 PM PDT Advisory.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011

...JOVA NOW MOVING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER
THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 110.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOVA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST. JOVA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A SHEARED
SYSTEM...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MASS. ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE SHOWING ABOUT 10 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE
ORGANIZATION ARE UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

JOVA IS GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW
350/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
COVERING THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 130W. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE AREA TO
SLOWLY STEER JOVA IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO IN 3-4 DAYS TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE
FORWARD SPEED AND LANDFALL TIME BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS-BASED
GUIDANCE AND THE SLOWER ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS MODELS. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE CENTER
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 72 HOURS AND WELL INLAND AT 96 HOURS.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR TO ABATE DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. IF THIS VERIFIES...JOVA SHOULD START TO
STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
FORECAST JOVA TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65-75 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL...WHILE THE HWRF AND GFDL FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW LIGHT SHEAR FROM
24-72 HOURS...SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHY SHIPS AND LGEM DO NOT SHOW MORE
STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 15.3N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.9N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.4N 109.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.9N 108.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.4N 107.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 19.0N 105.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 21.5N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN