EPAC: JOVA - Post - Tropical

[cycloneye]

Still a TD.

EP, 10, 2011100612, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1064W, 30, 1006, TD

[CrazyC83]

Since 11E was just declared, this will be Jova if named even if it gets upgraded at 8?

[Chacor]

Yes, I would assume that this gets Jova even if both are upgraded at the same time.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011

IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EARLIER 85-GHZ SSM/I
MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM FNMOC SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE THE DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE
LOW-LEVEL 37-GHZ CHANNEL WAS LESS CONCLUSIVE. THE CENTER HAS BEEN
REPOSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IT IS LOCATED EVEN FARTHER EAST. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 30 KT AND...GIVEN THE LACK OF BANDING
FEATURES IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A
RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL DURING
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE HFIP INTENSITY
CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.

THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7. THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERLY PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
RECURVE AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE NORTHEASTWARD
TURN AND HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES AS IT NEARS MEXICO. THE
GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL SHOW A MORE GRADUAL RECURVATURE THAN THE
UKMET AND ECMWF. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE
AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE
TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER. THEREAFTER IT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE TVCE CONSENSUS
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4
AND 5 AS THE AVERAGE TRACK ERROR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AT
THAT TIME FRAME IS ABOUT 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 11.5N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 12.2N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 13.1N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 14.2N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 15.2N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 18.8N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 20.0N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HurricaneRobert]

Could the moisture from one of these storms make it to the Gulf Coast?

[cycloneye]

Could the moisture from one of these storms make it to the Gulf Coast?

Is entierly possible that moisture from both Irwin and future Jova invade Texas that needs it badly.

[bexar]

GFDL has this at 110 KTs at landfall.

[Chacor]

GFDL isn't strictly a surface model though is it? IIRC they carry a disclaimer that its forecast winds differ from surface.

[cycloneye]

Jova at 2 PM PDT.

06/1800 UTC 11.8N 106.9W T2.5/2.5 10E -- East Pacific

[Extratropical94]

Jup, BT at TS strength
EP, 10, 2011100618, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1072W, 35, 1004, TS

[cycloneye]

Oh boy,it looks like the Mexican Riviera will get a double wallop of landfalling hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

Now they forecast Cat 2 strengh landfall.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
2011 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 107.5W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST. JOVA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND THE
SHEAR PATTERN APPEARS TO BE STEADILY EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A
BANDING PATTERN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.6/37 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. THESE ESTIMATES
ARE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 06/1654Z ASCAT OVERPASS THAT INDICATED
30-KT WINDS EXISTED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OUTSIDE OF DEEP
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...TD-10E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM JOVA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/09 KT...BASED MOSTLY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIXES. JOVA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 650 NMI EAST OF
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM IRWIN. ALTHOUGH IRWIN PRESENTLY HAS
BETTER BANDING FEATURES...THE TWO CYCLONES ARE COMPARABLE IN SIZE.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER...SOME BINARY/FUJIWHARA
INTERACTION IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD
BRING THE TWO CYCLONES CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND ALSO SLOW DOWN THE
FORWARD SPEED OF BOTH SYSTEMS. BY 72 HOURS...A BROAD MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE
WESTERN PORTION OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH
OF JOVA. THE RESULT SHOULD BE FOR JOVA TO GRADUALLY RECURVE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS
FAR SOUTH AND AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. GIVEN THAT AT
LEAST HALF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LIES TO THE
WEST OF AND...THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER-AIR
OBSERVING NETWORK...IT WOULD PRUDENT NOT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
TRACK CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C... IN A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REGIME...AND IN A VERY MOIST MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HUMIDITY VALUES OF 70-80 PERCENT. THIS WOULD
USUALLY EQUATES TO A PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR STEADY OR EVEN RAPID
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT
REFLECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKE JOVA A
HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...WITH STEADY WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER THAT.
IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS STEADILY STRENGTHEN JOVA TO
85 KT AND 100 KT...RESPECTIVELY...BY 96 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN INCREASED ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE HWRF MODEL SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH JOVA IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND
OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY 120 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IS
BEING INDICATED AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE OUTER WIND FIELD...WHICH
COULD STILL CONTAIN TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE AT THAT TIME.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4
AND 5 SINCE THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AT
THAT THOSE TIME PERIODS ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 12.5N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 13.4N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 14.3N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 15.0N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 16.2N 109.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 18.0N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 20.5N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Kingarabian]

I really do believe moisture is on its way to Texas in the upcoming week. Also, don't forget about RI .

[cycloneye]

brunota, do you see RI occuring with Jova,Irwin or both?

[HurricaneRobert]

RI is tricky since they are already having the Fujiwhara effect. The strong one tends to shear the weaker one. In this case I would bet that Jova will be the stronger one.

[somethingfunny]

This is a FASCINATING setup. Twin tropical cyclones, first we get Fujiwhara, rapid intensification, and then they both recurve south of the 26C isotherm (south of the 28C isotherm if you believe the current NHC tracks verbatim) and hit Jalisco state between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta within a few days of each other, both possibly being major hurricanes. AND this is the situation I've been praying for all year here in Texas, at least since Don proved we couldn't rely on the Atlantic to bring us any rain. Hopefully, the moisture won't be shunted too far south to help us out here.

[bg1]

So now the craziness shifts to the Eastern Pacific. If Irwin and Jova both become hurricanes, that will put the season at 10/9/4. There has only been one season since 1998 with 9 or more hurricanes: 2006, and that was an El Nino.

Is there a possibility that they may combine into one storm?

[cycloneye]

Fujiwhara is a big possibility with these two cyclones.



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[cycloneye]

From EPAC 2205 UTC TWD:

TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON
TROUGH HIGHLIGHT THE MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. T.S. JOVA AND T.S. IRWIN ARE SEPARATED AROUND 600 NM
FROM EACH OTHER AND SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
IS PROBABLE. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR IRWIN
TO TRAIL THE NEIGHBORING CYCLONE AS THE LATTER SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT
THE TWO CYCLONES WILL MOVE MORE IN TANDEM TOWARD THE COAST...AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
MONSOON TROUGH WILL ALLOW BOTH TROPICAL CYCLONES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. JOVA IS FORECAST TO BE A
HURRICANE BY SATURDAY WHILE IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2300.shtml?

[cycloneye]

Up to 40kts.

EP, 10, 2011100700, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1080W, 40, 1002, TS