EPAC: JOVA - Post - Tropical

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dwsqos2

Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#101 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 1:53 am

10/0600 UTC 16.3N 107.2W T6.0/6.0 JOVA -- East Pacific

Based on earlier recon data, Jova was lagging satellite intensity estimates by about 0.5T. But regardless Jova is much better organized.
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#102 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:07 am

Has to be a Major Hurricane by now. Trouble for Mexico.........
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#103 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 10, 2011 4:08 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100901
TCDEP5

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JOVA HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SMALL EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 105 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY FROM EYEWALL CYCLES COULD
OCCUR...BUT JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL IN MEXICO. GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS...THE UPDATE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS NEAR THE
UPPER-END OF THE GUIDANCE.

JOVA HAS SLOWED DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 085/4 KT. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. A SECOND TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WEST
OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD...AND
NORTHWARD IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND SHOW JOVA APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST
LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE
36- AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AN AVERAGE ERROR OF ABOUT 75
AND 100 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 16.3N 107.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 16.6N 106.4W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 17.3N 105.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 18.1N 105.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 14/0600Z 24.5N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#104 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 10, 2011 4:09 am

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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 100855
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

...JOVA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS...BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 107.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND
JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#105 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:48 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
500 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

...JOVA WOBBLING EASTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 107.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST. JOVA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND
JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re:

#106 Postby hipshot » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:21 am

Kingarabian wrote:Has to be a Major Hurricane by now. Trouble for Mexico.........


If this holds together over Mexico, it looks like we could get some much needed rain here in Texas. It
is forecasted to move in the right direction so I have my fingers crossed.
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Re: Re:

#107 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:24 am

hipshot wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Has to be a Major Hurricane by now. Trouble for Mexico.........


If this holds together over Mexico, it looks like we could get some much needed rain here in Texas. It
is forecasted to move in the right direction so I have my fingers crossed.


Don't hold your breath. Usually not much survives Central Mexico. Its like Hispaniola except 50 times bigger.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#108 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:38 am

12z Best Track increase intensity to 110kts. The recon data will be very interesting later today.

EP, 10, 2011101012, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1070W, 110, 957, HU
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#109 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:51 am

very interesting. 2 major typhoons including a category 4 made landfall in the philippines and now a 3rd one expected to make landfall in the PI...and now it's the east pacific's turn on mexico...
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#110 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:44 am

cycloneye wrote:12z Best Track increase intensity to 110kts. The recon data will be very interesting later today.

EP, 10, 2011101012, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1070W, 110, 957, HU

It jumped 30 knots in 18 hours...it was 80 knots at 18 UTC (2 pm EDT) yesterday, and now it is 110 knots at 12 UTC (8 am EDT). That easily meets RI standards, and falls dead in my window. Looks like it may get to 125 or 130 knots before all is said and done, sadly.

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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#111 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:48 am

Up to 125 mph

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

...JOVA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 106.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOVA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND
JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOVA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND A
WELL-DEFINED 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE IS APPARENT IN THE FIRST FEW
VISIBLE IMAGES. CLOUDS TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL AND THE EYE HAS
WARMED BY MORE THAN 30C IN INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY
AS THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT. HOWEVER...THE SURROUNDING RING OF
COLDEST TEMPERATURES HAS HAD INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN IT. ALTHOUGH
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 110 KT...JUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO RECONNOITER JOVA...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/04 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF JOVA IS BEGINNING TO
IMPINGE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. FARTHER
EAST...12Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO HAVE
INCREASED BY 30-50 METERS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH MEANS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST OF JOVA. THE RESULT
IS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FAIRLY SOON.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SHORT-RANGE
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE MODELS
BEING IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS...RECENT
MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW A MUCH WIDER VARIATION IN THE MODEL TRACKS. THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE JOVA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INLAND
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND IN CONTRAST...THE GFS
AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION AND KEEP THE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE. THE HWRF...
ECMWF...AND TVCN AND HFIP CONSENSUS MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES AND ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. AS A RESULT...
A BLEND OF THOSE MODELS WERE USED IN CONSTRUCTING THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK...WHICH LIES JUST A TAD EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK.

JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND OVER SSTS WARMER THAN 29C UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND JOVA COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TODAY. JOVA IS A RELATIVELY SMALL
CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THE CYCLONE CAN EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH UP AND DOWN...IN RELATIVELY SHORT TIME
PERIODS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BE AT LEAST
A MAJOR HURRICANE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...
GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH HAVE THUS FAR PERFORMED QUITE WELL
WITH JOVA.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST
LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE
36- AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AVERAGE ERRORS OF ABOUT 75
AND 100 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 16.3N 106.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 16.6N 106.2W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 17.3N 105.5W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 18.5N 104.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 20.1N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1200Z 22.0N 104.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 14/1200Z 24.5N 105.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#112 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:52 am

This morning's discussion by Dr Jeff Masters:

In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye with very cold cloud tops. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models are in good agreement that Jova will turn northeast and then north on Tuesday, with storm expected to hit near Manzanillo on Mexico's southwest coast Tuesday afternoon. The intensity forecast also appears relatively straightforward. Jova is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and Jova is now approaching a region where these warm waters extend to great depth, which should allow the storm to maintain major hurricane strength until landfall. The GFDL model predicts Jova will be a Category 3 at landfall on Tuesday afternoon, while the HWRF model predicts Category 4 strength. The hurricane is likely to undergo the usual fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles major hurricanes typically experience at this stage of their lifetimes, so Mexico will have to hope it catches Jova on one of the downswings of this cycle. If Jova maintains its current central pressure of 960 mb until landfall, it will rank as one of the ten most intense Pacific hurricanes to hit Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. According to a comprehensive list of Eastern Pacific hurricane landfalls at Wikipedia, only seven hurricanes with a central pressure of 960 mb or lower have hit Mexico's Pacific coast since 1949. Jova is a modest-sized hurricane, with hurricane-force winds that extend out only 15 miles from the center. A relatively small stretch of moderately to lightly-populated coast will see Jova's high eyewall winds and very dangerous storm surge. A much larger swath of Mexico will see very heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches, and these rains are capable of causing high loss of life due to heavy flooding and mudslides.

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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#113 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:53 am

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Looking at the sat images, Jova looks closer to 120 or 125 knots right now...small, circular, well defined eye...you can actually see the low level clouds inside of it! Cloud tops are cooling and expanding, everything we've seen in the other 120+ knot hurricanes in the EPAC this year. Recon will be very, very interesting.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#114 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 12:16 pm

Recon has not transmitted for a couple of hours. Hopefully,all is fine up there and they let us know how strong is Jova.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#115 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 12:46 pm

Jova still appears to be lagging satellite intensity estimates based on recon data. Peak 700 mb wind was 114 knots in SE quad. The SE quad is actually the RFQ.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#116 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 1:04 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

...JOVA TURNS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED A
UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL...JOVA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.

RECENT REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND
JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#117 Postby Dave C » Mon Oct 10, 2011 1:06 pm

just my thoughts but Jova may have just finished EWRC as eye this am seems larger than last nite and yesterday. Winds may be catching up as afternoon progesses. 957 mb pressure first pass.
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#118 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 1:50 pm

Something keeps interfering with Jova...the eye comes out clear and round, the convection deepens and expands...then suddenly the eye disappears and the convection on the western side falls apart. That is good for Mexico, though.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#119 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 2:59 pm

Nice loop.

Image
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#120 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:03 pm

From earlier (dropsonde at 1733 UTC or 1:33 pm EDT):

brunota2003 wrote:Here's a dropsonde from earlier that I missed (the eye splash was already in NHC link). Eyewall splash, surface pressure 975 millibars and winds of 91 knots at the surface.

UZPN13 KNHC 101758
XXAA 60187 99164 71064 04766 99975 25409 15591 00728 ///// /////
92459 22806 20128 85198 21418 20611 70865 09858 22107 88999 77999
31313 09608 81733
61616 AF305 0210E JOVA OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1651N10630W 1737 MBL WND 18621 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 20608 974698 WL150 17611 077 REL 1641N10635W 173328 SPG 165
1N10630W 173710 =
XXBB 60188 99164 71064 04766 00975 25409 11917 22406 22850 21418
33775 16407 44755 17650 55740 16850 66718 17858 77698 08858
21212 00975 15591 11973 15593 22972 16607 33971 17111 44963 18612
55956 18623 66946 18632 77934 19123 88922 20128 99903 20604 11885
21104 22880 21097 33863 21115 44856 21108 55850 20611 66839 20619
77820 21101 88773 22120 99742 22100 11698 22107
31313 09608 81733
61616 AF305 0210E JOVA OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1651N10630W 1737 MBL WND 18621 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 20608 974698 WL150 17611 077 REL 1641N10635W 173328 SPG 165
1N10630W 173710 =
;

Per that dropsonde, there are 111 knot winds literally JUST off the surface (about 120 feet up). Winds of 132 knots are about 870 feet off the surface.
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