EPAC: JOVA - Post - Tropical

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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#121 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:42 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

...JOVA TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS A STRONG CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 106.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES
NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED BY
A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL...JOVA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

RECENT REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND
JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JOVA
FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL MAXIMUM WINDS OF 114 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT AND A BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 109 KT IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LAST DROPSONDE REPORT IN THE EYE INDICATED A
SURFACE PRESSURE OF 956 MB...BUT WITH A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 15
KT. AS A RESULT...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 955 MB.
BASED ON THE RECON INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NO CHANGES HAD TO MADE TO THE VARIOUS
WIND RADII BASED ON THE RECON WIND DATA.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/04 KT. JOVA HAS FINALLY MADE THE LONG
ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A BUILDING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD TURN
THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND TOWARD
THE NORTH BY 48 HOURS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF FORECAST TRACK HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD AND NOW LIES ALONG THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST
TRACK. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO
THE NHC HFIP TV15 AND TVCN CONSENSUS MODELS.

JOVA HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW PATTERN NOTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WITH OUTFLOW JETS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS NEAR 30C...
ESPECIALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS A
RESULT OF THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND JOVA COULD STILL BECOME A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT
INDICATE JOVA REMAINS A RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THE
CYCLONE IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...
ESPECIALLY IF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OCCUR. HOWEVER...JOVA IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...EVEN THOUGH
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AS THE
CYCLONE NEARS THE MOUNTAINOUS COASTAL TERRAIN. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WESTERLY FETCH OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF JOVA EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE IS INLAND AT 48 HOURS...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO
CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST
LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE
36-HOUR TRACK FORECAST HAS AVERAGE ERRORS OF ABOUT 75 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 16.8N 106.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 18.2N 105.2W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1800Z 21.1N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1800Z 22.7N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 14/1800Z 24.5N 105.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#122 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:44 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
500 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

...JOVA HEADED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 106.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOVA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL...JOVA IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND
JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re:

#123 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:08 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Something keeps interfering with Jova...the eye comes out clear and round, the convection deepens and expands...then suddenly the eye disappears and the convection on the western side falls apart. That is good for Mexico, though.

The NHC was saying something about possible dry/stable air interference. Could be it.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#124 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:40 pm

Jova weakens a little bit.


HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...
AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 105 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF
T- AND CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL
DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND JOVA WILL BE PASSING OVER 30
DEG C SSTS AS IT NEARS THE COAST. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
STRENGTH IS INDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE. RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY ONCE
THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE.

THE MOTION OF JOVA HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR ABOUT 030/6. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TWO OF
THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS THAT TYPICALLY PERFORM QUITE WELL...THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THEIR PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST...BUT IS EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
THIS IS STILL CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE. IF FUTURE RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD...HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE NECESSARY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 17.4N 106.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 19.1N 105.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0000Z 21.8N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/0000Z 23.5N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#125 Postby FireRat » Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:55 pm

:uarrow: Let's hope this is a good sign that the storm will not gain more strength and impact Mexico in a less disastrous manner.
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EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#126 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2011 5:26 am

Weakens a little bit more.


HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE
HAS DEGRADED WITH THE EYE NO LONGER CLOSED AND ONLY THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL INTACT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
SAB AND TAFB....AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AGAIN
DECREASED. THE WIND SPEED IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 100 KT...WHICH
IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS T- AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. JOVA
WILL BE MOVING OVER 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS WATER AND REMAIN IN
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR UNTIL LANDFALL. NEARLY ALL OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED BEFORE
THE HURRICANE REACHES MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR
A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN INTENSITY...AND JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
POWERFUL HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...AND JOVA COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED
BELOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030/5 KT. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE
UPDATED TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER TRACK THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE 00Z ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 17.5N 105.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 18.6N 105.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 19.9N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1800Z 21.3N 105.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0600Z 22.2N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/0600Z 23.5N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#127 Postby Dave C » Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:25 am

You can see after the eclipse of the sat. pics how the east side of Jova expanded east. Seems to be winning the battle presently against se shear, not good news for Mexico. :(
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#128 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:42 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF JOVA MOVING ONSHORE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 105.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR
TODAY...AND JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...
AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#129 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2011 9:47 am

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JOVA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS PRODUCING CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE EYEWALL...AND THE EYE IS OCCASIONALLY
VISIBLE IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE
A BIT GENEROUS AS THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOWER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOVA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/4. JOVA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER CROSSING
THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THAT TIME. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
DIRECTION OF MOTION AFTER LANDFALL...POSSIBLY DUE TO HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER LANDFALL.

FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...
JOVA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
JOVA CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HEAVY RAINS FROM JOVA ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 17.8N 105.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 19.0N 105.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 20.3N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0000Z 21.4N 104.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/1200Z 22.1N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/1200Z 23.5N 105.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#130 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2011 12:51 pm

Good news as Jova weakens more.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT JOVA HAS WEAKENED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 105.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND CROSS THE COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...
160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...
AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#131 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 11, 2011 2:12 pm

Not if the price for a nice trackable storm is a huge amount of lives.
Remember that infrastructure and living conditions there aren't as good as in some big cities in the US or in other highly developed countries.
If Jova comes ashore as a hurricane she will almost certainly cause the death of people which is terrible no matter how beautiful the cyclone is.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#132 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2011 3:01 pm

More good news as Jova has weakened to a low end cat 2.

EP, 10, 2011101118, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1055W, 85, 973, HU
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#133 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2011 3:47 pm

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED JOVA AND
REPORTED THAT THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE FLIGHT
YESTERDAY. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 95 KT...AND
THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WERE 78 KT. THE LAST REPORTED CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 973 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 85 KT. ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 10-15 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...WHICH MIGHT BE THE CAUSE OF THE OBSERVED WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 030/5...AND IN THE SHORT-TERM THE CENTER
MAY BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN 5 KT. JOVA IS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER CROSSING
THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
DIRECTION OF MOTION AFTER LANDFALL...POSSIBLY DUE TO HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN
A UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER LANDFALL.

SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER
THAT...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOVA CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST TIME OF DISSIPATION IS NOW JUST AFTER
48 HOURS...WHICH IS 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT JOVA COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN THIS
TIME.

HEAVY RAINS FROM JOVA ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 18.3N 105.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 19.3N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 20.4N 104.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0600Z 21.4N 104.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/1800Z 22.2N 104.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#134 Postby Caribwxgirl » Tue Oct 11, 2011 3:53 pm

I wish all the folk who may be impacted by this system all the best. At least it weakened a bit so hopefully the impact will not be so bad. :(
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#135 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Oct 11, 2011 4:53 pm

Usually, hurricanes landfalling on the EPAC side of Mexico produce low death tolls.

However, the heavy rainmakers are the ones that usually are disastrous.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#136 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:38 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE JOVA NEARING THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 105.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THIS EVENING.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL CROSS THE
COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER WESTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ONTO THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE EVENING.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...
AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#137 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2011 9:36 pm

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

JOVA IS MAINTAINING A VERY COLD-TOPPED CDO FEATURE...BUT NO EYE IS
APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. SSM/I IMAGERY DID
DEPICT AT LEAST A PARTIAL EYEWALL STRUCTURE...HOWEVER.
DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85 KT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND THE HURRICANE IS OVER VERY
WARM WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
OF JOVA CROSSES THE COASTLINE. ONCE INLAND...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE
WHICH INCLUDES AN INLAND DECAY MODEL. HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAINOUS
LAND MASS MAY CAUSE AN EVEN MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN THE TYPICAL
INLAND DECAY...SO JOVA COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN
HERE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE AND THE MOTION IS NOW 020/7. JOVA IS MOVING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE MOSTLY DISSIPATED IN A DAY OR SO...AS
ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF JOVA. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED TO A CRAWL
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH WIND AND SURGE ARE OBVIOUSLY A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD ALONG THE
COAST...INLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO IS ALSO A BIG CONCERN. HEAVY
RAINS FROM JOVA ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 19.0N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 19.9N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 13/0000Z 20.4N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/1200Z 20.7N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/0000Z 21.0N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#138 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:05 am

Landfall.

Image
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#139 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2011 5:24 am

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

BEFORE THE CENTER OF JOVA MOVED INLAND...AN EYE WAS BRIEFLY APPARENT
IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN
0000 AND 0300 UTC SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE. THEREFORE IT
IS ESTIMATED THAT JOVA MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT UNTIL
LANDFALL AROUND 0500 UTC. SINCE LANDFALL THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED IN
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME
ELONGATED...WITH MOST OF THE COLD TOPS NOW LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
75 KT. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOVA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND
AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO. THE
NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS AND THE LGEM...MAKING JOVA A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND SHOWING DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JOVA COULD WEAKEN FASTER AND
DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

JOVA ACCELERATED A LITTLE AND TURNED NORTHWARD AS IT MADE
LANDFALL...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/8. AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF JOVA WEAKENS...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DRAMATICALLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A
SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ADJUSTED FOR THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION.

EVEN AS JOVA WEAKENS AND THE WIND AND SURGE THREATS DECREASE...
INLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO JOVA ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MEXICO DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 19.9N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 20.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 13/0600Z 21.0N 105.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/1800Z 21.2N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Yet another hurricane that ends up weaker then forecast at L

#140 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Oct 12, 2011 6:40 am

Caribwxgirl wrote:I wish all the folk who may be impacted by this system all the best. At least it weakened a bit so hopefully the impact will not be so bad. :(

It probably made no difference at all. Even if this was a category 5 landfall, I bet 99% of the deaths would be from flooding/storm surge still. In other words, it's irreverent in this scenario since a major city is not directly in the eye and hurricane force winds only extend outwards of 15 miles.

dwsqos2 wrote:Hopefully, this doesn't collaspse as the globals suggest. There are some hurricane chasers there; they could use a halfway decent storm.

I pray that it at least maintains its intensity.

*Does healthy hurricane dance*

I'm starting to feel bad for the hurricane chasers now, another stinker. They would have to be at exactly the right place at the right time to even feel low end CAT2 winds.
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