EPAC: JOVA - Post - Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#141 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2011 6:55 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
500 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

...JOVA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A MAJOR THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 105.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF JOVA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOVA
CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...AND JOVA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR
THE CENTER OF JOVA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MADE LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...
AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Yet another hurricane that ends up weaker then forecast at L

#142 Postby beoumont » Wed Oct 12, 2011 7:23 am

Cyclenall wrote: I'm starting to feel bad for the hurricane chasers now, another stinker. They would have to be at exactly the right place at the right time to even feel low end CAT2 winds.

It probably made no difference at all. Even if this was a category 5 landfall, I bet 99% of the deaths would be from flooding/storm surge still. In other words, it's irreverent in this scenario since a major city is not directly in the eye and hurricane force winds only extend outwards of 15 miles.


There is one, and his wife, in either Careyes or Chamala, and two at or within 20 miles of Careyes to the south (not sure where they ended up. - last I heard (10 pm EDT.).

From 45 years of chasing, the general "rule" is: if you get to the exact right spot right on the shoreline you will experience a few gusts equal to what the last advisory stated was the maximum sustained winds in the storm.
-------

In general, historically, about 90% of deaths in a hurricane are from drowning.

I would venture a guess that if Jova was a cat. 5 (or even a four or high end 3) and hit in the area it hit, the % of deaths from drowning would be very much less than 90%. Reasons why:

A. The area has a small % of dwellings in low lying areas - as it is generally mountainous, and hilly right up to the coast.

B. Other than the beach-side resort areas, the housing is almost all quite dismal; thatched huts, bricks with no mortar, wooden and stick structures, etc - a very poor part of a poor country. The result would be many, many people would die as almost every structure would be flattened by the wind.
--------

In cat 5 Hurricane Andrew, which hit an area of nearly 1/2 million residents with 130+ mph winds, there was amazingly only 19 deaths - and only one was from drowning. Some areas had gusts of 175+; one anemometer 2 miles from the water measured 186 mph. (actually measured 212mph, but upon checking by scientists reduced it to 186.)
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List of 78 tropical cyclones intercepted :
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm

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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Tropical Depression

#143 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2011 3:40 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

JOVA HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED...THERE ARE NO SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...AND A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS SHOWED NO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER WATER WEST OF
THE CENTER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. JOVE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERLAND UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS OR
LESS.

THE CENTER OF JOVA HAS BECOME A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TRACK...AS IT IS
UNCLEAR WHETHER THE UPPER AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION ARE
STILL VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THE INITIAL POSITION...BASED ON A BLEND
OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA...YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 005/5. A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS FORECAST UNTIL THE
CYCLONE DISSIPATES.

ALTHOUGH JOVA HAS WEAKENED...INLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO WILL REMAIN
A MAJOR CONCERN. HEAVY RAINS DUE TO JOVA ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 21.4N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 21.8N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 13/1800Z 22.1N 104.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Tropical Depression

#144 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:35 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOVA LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...IT MAY
NO LONGER HAVE A SURFACE CIRCULATION SINCE THE ROTATION SEEN ON THE
SATELLITE ANIMATIONS MIGHT BE ONLY THAT OF A VORTEX ALOFT.
ADVISORIES ON JOVA ARE BEING TERMINATED AT THIS TIME.

THE REMNANT OF JOVA SHOULD DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION
WITHIN A DAY OR LESS...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 21.7N 104.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.0N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#145 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:35 pm

"You are the weakest link, goodbye!"
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Post - Tropical

#146 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Oct 13, 2011 3:44 am

Reports of 5 dead from Jova.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Post - Tropical

#147 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 13, 2011 9:24 am

8 DEATHS AND 9000 PEOPLE AFFECTE BY JOVA IN MEXICO

This link is the translation from a newspaper page and has a gallery of the damages: Eight deaths by Jova in Jalisco and Colima

And this link has more info about the damages: Jova causes floods and mudslides
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