EPAC: JOVA - Post - Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#61 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 08, 2011 1:03 am

Appears to be going through an RI phase. Could be a hurricane in the next advisory.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby Teddyfred » Sat Oct 08, 2011 4:14 am

Is that a developing pinhole eye?

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#63 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 08, 2011 5:01 am

That convection is really intense.
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Jova the Ova

#64 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Oct 08, 2011 5:37 am

The Epac is becoming very active now in October...during a La Nina no less. I don't recall a time when so many TC's were making such sharp U-turns like this (Ophelia, Philippe, Jova, Irwin) and the U-turn itself is uncommon. Irwin and Jova are like journeying out to sea and then all of a sudden decide to turn right around and visit Mexico!

Jova is obviously going to pose the greatest threat of the season to landmass in the Epac and I'm glad recon this time is going to be on top of it instead of waiting until it's a TD. For this one I have no idea how strong it will be by the time it reaches Mexico, it could be anywhere from a TD to a category 4 hurricane. It's a much larger than normal system for the Epac and I think the largest of the season.

Kingarabian wrote:Appears to be going through an RI phase. Could be a hurricane in the next advisory.

Just looks like quick strengthening right now.

Teddyfred wrote:Is that a developing pinhole eye?

*Image Removed*

What aspect of that image made you think of a pinhole eye? If that is a warm spot precluding an actual eye then it would be a medium to large size eye.

Kingarabian wrote:That convection is really intense.

The whole time, bursting type TS's in the Epac do this. Why does it seem like TS's in October in both the Epac and Atlantic sport very cold cloud tops in developing TS's? I've just noticed this since 2007.
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#65 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:36 am

ATCF says 55 kt at 12Z.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:37 am

Mexico has gotten away with the past 6 hurricanes this year. I thought the land mass would keep that kind of luck until this season ends, but it seems I was wrong.



I don't know if I could introduce this topic in here, but in WPAC we are used to see 2 storms having DCI with each other given the distance between them is quite close. I never heard of a DCI occurring in EPAC and ATL, so I'm not sure if it something like that is possible in the case of Jova and Irwin.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:21 am

Up to 60kts.


TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE JOVA HAS BEEN
DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST 9 HOURS OR SO. NOW THAT THE
NOCTURNAL BURSTING PATTERN HAS SUBSIDED...THE CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLE INTO A CDO PATTERN...WITH A
SMALL RING OF OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS ENCIRCLING THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. ALTHOUGH A 08/0947Z AMSU OVERPASS DID NOT SHOW MUCH MEAT ON
THE BONES IN TERMS OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...THE CONVECTION
SINCE THAT TIME APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...AND A
2-HR UW-CIMSS ADT AVERAGE OF T3.7/59 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/03 KT. JOVA IS LOCATED ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHOSE AXIS LIES ALONG 16N LATITUDE. AS A RESULT
OF THE WEAK STEERING FLOW IN THIS AREA...PLUS SOME BINARY
INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE IRWIN LOCATED TO THE WEST...JOVA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...NOTED JUST NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...A
SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FIRST
TROUGH AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT JOVA TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATTER FORECAST
PERIODS...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO
CONVERGE ON LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE 84 TO 96
HOUR TIME FRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A
LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT STILL LIES TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME FOR
ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY EVEN FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CONTAMINATED BY UPPER-LEVEL WARMING CREATED
IN THE MODEL AS IT STRENGTHENS JOVA. LIKEWISE...THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOWN IN THE MODEL IS LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW THAT
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS MAKE JOVA A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS WELL ABOVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.8N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.0N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.1N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.2N 107.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 18.3N 105.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 21.5N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#68 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:28 am

DCI/Fujiwhara interaction is actually fairly common in the EPAC, I think (unscientific estimate) it happens probably once every season.
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#69 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:56 am

The two cyclones are causing shear on each other that caused both my forecasts for Irwin and Jova to bust...frustrating, but glad I was wrong for the moment.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2011 3:15 pm

18z Best Track came out very late and it goes to hurricane intensity.

EP, 10, 2011100818, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1103W, 65, 989, HU
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#71 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2011 3:47 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011

...JOVA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT DRIFTS TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 110.2W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOVA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN


HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT JOVA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPED ALL
THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS
SHOWS AN EYE AND EYEWALL FORMING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO JOVA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON
THIS ADVISORY.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 075/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE PACIFIC NORTH
OF JOVA AND IRWIN EAST OF 130W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER
JOVA SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK
BRINGS JOVA NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS AND
OVER MEXICO BY 96 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE TRACK
LIES SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST JOVA TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CALL FOR THE
CYCLONE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90
KT WHILE THE LGEM MODEL SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 70-75 KT.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE
GFDL/HWRF AND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.0N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.1N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 16.3N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 17.4N 105.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 18.4N 105.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 22.0N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 08, 2011 7:46 pm

dexterlabio wrote:Mexico has gotten away with the past 6 hurricanes this year. I thought the land mass would keep that kind of luck until this season ends, but it seems I was wrong.



I don't know if I could introduce this topic in here, but in WPAC we are used to see 2 storms having DCI with each other given the distance between them is quite close. I never heard of a DCI occurring in EPAC and ATL, so I'm not sure if it something like that is possible in the case of Jova and Irwin.



DCI is very common in the west pacific. they do happen once in a while in the atlantic and east pacific...
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#73 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:47 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011

...JOVA MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 109.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOVA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOVA HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND IS
PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS
CURRENTLY GOOD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

JOVA IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/4. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS
AS A SECOND TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
WEST OF MEXICO BY 120 HOURS. THE FIRST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER
JOVA SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION AS THE SECOND TROUGH BECOMES THE
MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. MOST OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS JOVA
MAKING LANDFALL IN 72-96 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AFTER 48
HOURS AND TAKE THE CENTER OVER OR WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS SHARP OF A TURN...AND IT CALLS
FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72
HOURS. THE NEW TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST JOVA TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION...
AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS
MODEL STILL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KT WHILE THE LGEM
MODEL STILL SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 70-75 KT. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE
GFDL/HWRF AND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.0N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 15.9N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 16.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 16.7N 105.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 19.0N 104.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 23.0N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#74 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 5:30 am

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT JOVA HAS STRENGTHENED. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING INNER-CORE STRUCTURE WITH
A CLOSED EYEWALL...WHILE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS IS NOTED IN INFRARED PICTURES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE AROUND T4.5...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT THAT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOVA SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
GROUND TRUTH DATA THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD
ABOUT ABOUT 5 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JOVA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN JOVA
NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4...AND
SHOWS LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE
DAYS. SINCE THE AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR AT 72 HOURS IS ABOUT 120 N
MI...USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK.

JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS MAKE JOVA A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...WHILE
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND BRINGS JOVA TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 16.0N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 15.9N 108.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 15.9N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 16.2N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 16.6N 105.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#75 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:36 am

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE JOVA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. ALTHOUGH
A 09/0936Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALED THE EYE WAS OPEN TO THE
NORTHEAST...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME INDICATES
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND HAVE WRAPPED AROUND WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A DEVELOPING WARM SPOT OR EYE IN THE CENTER OF THE SMALL CDO.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.5/77
KT...AND UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.6/79 KT. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOVA AND SHOULD PROVIDE
A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT JOVA IS
MOVING EASTWARD...OR 090/05 KT...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
RATIONALE. JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO IN WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A BROAD
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS SOUTH. BY 48 HOURS...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CAUSE JOVA TO
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN SPEED DIFFERENCES...
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING
SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS INDICATED ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 60-72 HOURS...USERS SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR
AT 72 HOURS IS ABOUT 120 NMI.

THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM STILL APPEAR TO BE
SUFFERING FROM NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE GFS MODEL DUE TO WARMING
THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALSO CREATING EXCESSIVE SHEAR OWING TO ENHANCED
OUTFLOW THAT DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF JOVA BY 48 HOURS. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS GENERATE A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE BY 48
HOURS...AS DO THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CONSISTENT FORECASTS OF MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BY THE LATTER TWO MODELS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...
COUPLED WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FROM NOW UNTIL LANDFALL. JOVA
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...AND THEN WEAKEN
QUICKLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

BASED ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.2N 108.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 16.2N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 16.2N 106.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 16.6N 105.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 17.5N 105.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 20.3N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1200Z 23.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#76 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:56 am

Two more missions by Recon for Jova on Monday and Tuesday.

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS.
1. HURRICANE JOVA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0210E JOVA
C. 10/1230Z
D. 16.4N 106.2W
E. 10/1700Z TO 10/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE JOVA AT
11/1800Z NEAR 18.5N 104.9W
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#77 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:56 am

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Okay...now that Jova and Irwin are not throwing fits of shear at each other, lets try the RI forecast again. Conditions are once again near perfect, and Irwin won't be shearing Jova every time there is an increase in organization. The indicator first popped up around 10 UTC (6 am EDT) and became well defined by 13 UTC (9 am EDT). That would put the start of a potential RI cycle at around 16 UTC to 18 UTC (2 pm to 4 pm EDT). No forecast right now.

Sorry I haven't been around, I had 24 hour duty yesterday into this morning.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#78 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:05 pm

Plane has decended to operational altitud.Now let's see how strong she is.
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#79 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:34 pm

Based on Recon data - pressure 980mb, winds likely about 75 kt.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#80 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:42 pm

80kts at 18z Best Track.

EP, 10, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1083W, 80, 978, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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