EPAC: JOVA - Post - Tropical

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Dave C
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#81 Postby Dave C » Sun Oct 09, 2011 2:43 pm

Eye feature forming with pulsing convection around it. Should see decresing pressure in recons next eye passes.Wonder how many vortex passes they can get after long trip to reach storm?
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#82 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 2:45 pm

Lowest pressure reading on second pass was 9757.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#83 Postby Macrocane » Sun Oct 09, 2011 2:49 pm

000
URPN12 KNHC 091946
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP102011
A. 09/19:16:00Z
B. 16 deg 11 min N
108 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2903 m
D. 81 kt
E. 213 deg 11 nm
F. 299 deg 82 kt
G. 215 deg 14 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 5 C / 3043 m
J. 15 C / 3041 m
K. 4 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0110E JOVA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 82 KT SW QUAD 19:12:00Z
;
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#84 Postby Dave C » Sun Oct 09, 2011 2:52 pm

And the 82 knot max wind was in the sw quad. Definately ramping up! :eek: Also closed eyewall.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#85 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 3:00 pm

Plane is acending so the mission is over.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#86 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 3:03 pm

A textbook structure with that small eye that is very scary for the folks in the Mexican Riviera.

Image
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#87 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 3:44 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

...JOVA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 107.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

AN EYE APPEARED IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR MOST OF THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LAST HOUR WHEN IT BECAME
CLOUD-COVERED DUE TO A BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
EYEWALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY ABERRATION. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JOVA
FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 976 MB ON ITS LAST PASS THROUGH THE
CENTER...DOWN 3 MB FROM ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH AN HOUR PRIOR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY MAINTAINED AT 80 KT BASED
ON PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 79 KT AND 81 KT...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY A
DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND OF 77 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/07 KT. JOVA IS ON TRACK AND THERE IS
NOTHING NEW TO DISCUSS CONCERNING THE TRACK FORECAST. OTHER THAN
SPEED DIFFERENCES...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE MOVING EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...
AND THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AFTER
THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS...
WHICH HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF
MANZANILLO FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS INDICATED
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...USERS
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE AVERAGE
FORECAST ERROR AT THAT TIME PERIOD IS ABOUT 100 NMI.

JOVA HAS A ROUGHLY 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE BASED ON RECON DATA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A
WELL-DEFINED CDO FEATURE...WHICH IS FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER
OF A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. JOVA HAS ALL THE CLASSIC SIGNS OF
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR ABOUT HALF OF
ALL THE HURRICANES THAT HAVE FORMED SO FAR THIS YEAR IN THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC BASIN. BASED ON THE VERY FAVORABLE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS
SURROUNDING JOVA...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON.

BASED ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 16.2N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 16.2N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 16.4N 106.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 17.1N 105.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 18.2N 104.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 21.1N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1800Z 23.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#88 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 4:39 pm

Brunota,looking at this image,you think RI is occuring?

Image
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#89 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 4:46 pm

Not sure about RI, but definitely significant strengthening is going on this afternoon...though it looks like it might be fighting some dry air or a little bit of shear...all the heaviest convection is on the eastern half of the circulation.
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#90 Postby Dave C » Sun Oct 09, 2011 4:48 pm

too bad recons gone. Just incredible outflow :eek:
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Re:

#91 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 4:54 pm

Dave C wrote:too bad recons gone. Just incredible outflow :eek:



Tommorow's recon will be very interesting with the data,but that same data will be very worrisome for those folks on the coast.
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#92 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 09, 2011 5:03 pm

Mexico has a lot on its plate this upcoming week. After Jova, they have Irwin and 99E to worry about.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#93 Postby Macrocane » Sun Oct 09, 2011 5:48 pm

Jova will be the biggest threat for the Pacific coast of Mexico since 2002 Kenna, fortunately the death toll from Kenna was low but the damages were severe, on the other hand there's 1998 Pauline with a very high death toll but I think that Mexico is better prepared now.
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#94 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:16 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

...JOVA MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 107.6W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE-WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#95 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:53 pm

00z Best Track

Up to 85kts.

EP, 10, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1076W, 85, 975, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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#96 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:56 pm

If CIMSS ADT uses the scene type EYE, the raw #s are 5.3
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#97 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:59 pm

And SSD dvorak goes up to cat 2 numbers of 5.0.

10/0000 UTC 16.4N 107.6W T5.0/5.0 JOVA -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#98 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:43 pm

8 PM PDT Advisory up to Cat 2-100 mph

Hurricane Warning issued.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

...JOVA STRENGTHENS...NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...HURRICANE
WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 107.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO...AND CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO
MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
BY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO ON MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

JOVA REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
COLD-TOPPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET
TO 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW CIMSS. HIGH CLOUD AND
WATER VAPOR MOTIONS SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL
DEFINED OVER MOST OF THE CIRCULATION. JOVA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW SHEAR AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND OVER SSTS NEAR 29 DEG C. AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
PACKAGE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH
CATEGORY 3 STATUS BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST. THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BUT FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.

JOVA CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK...OR 080/6. THE
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A BROAD BUT WEAK DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL SOON BUILD NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO...AND THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENT SHOULD CAUSE JOVA
TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT
PROJECT MODEL CONSENSUS.

SINCE THIS FORECAST SHOWS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
JOVA REACHING THE COAST IN 36 HOURS...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND FORECAST LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A
POINT AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AN AVERAGE ERROR OF A LITTLE
MORE THAN 100 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 16.5N 107.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 16.6N 106.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 17.9N 105.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 19.1N 104.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 22.0N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 14/0000Z 24.0N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#99 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:41 pm

Does anyone has a graphic of the west coast of Mexico that shows the cities and smaller towns that will be affected directly when Jova makes landfall?
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Macrocane
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Re: EPAC: JOVA - Hurricane

#100 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 10, 2011 12:09 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Very impressive, Jova could be a major hurricane right now, or at least a 95 kt hurricane.

Image
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