EPAC: TWELVE - Post - Tropical

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EPAC: TWELVE - Post - Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2011 6:44 pm

And yet,another disturbance that may develop down the road. This explosion of systems in the basin is the result from the very wet MJO pulse moving thru the EPAC.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110062317
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011100618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992011
EP, 99, 2011100606, , BEST, 0, 93N, 907W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2011100612, , BEST, 0, 95N, 913W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2011100618, , BEST, 0, 97N, 916W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2011100700, , BEST, 0, 99N, 922W, 20, 1009, DB


5 PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#2 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Oct 06, 2011 6:50 pm

Wow, another one?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2011 7:03 pm

Is very small compared with Jova and Irwin. Now what will this new system do in relation to the other two?. Or maybe,the stronger ones tear apart this one?

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2011 8:05 pm

Models are not keen with this system,but it may be a rainmaker for CA.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 070046
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC FRI OCT 7 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992011) 20111007 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111007  0000   111007  1200   111008  0000   111008  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.9N  92.4W   10.3N  93.6W   10.7N  94.8W   11.0N  95.7W
BAMD     9.9N  92.4W   10.1N  93.8W   10.2N  95.0W   10.2N  95.8W
BAMM     9.9N  92.4W   10.3N  93.6W   10.5N  94.6W   10.7N  95.4W
LBAR     9.9N  92.4W   10.4N  93.5W   10.8N  94.4W   11.3N  94.9W
SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          24KTS          26KTS
DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          24KTS          26KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111009  0000   111010  0000   111011  0000   111012  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.3N  96.3W   12.0N  97.0W   13.6N  96.3W   15.9N  93.9W
BAMD    10.1N  96.5W    9.7N  97.6W    9.1N  99.5W    8.5N 101.2W
BAMM    10.7N  95.9W   10.8N  96.2W   11.4N  96.0W   11.7N  94.2W
LBAR    12.0N  95.2W   13.9N  95.6W   16.5N  96.2W   19.7N  96.9W
SHIP        28KTS          32KTS          29KTS          29KTS
DSHP        28KTS          32KTS          29KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.9N LONCUR =  92.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =   9.5N LONM12 =  91.3W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =   9.1N LONM24 =  90.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#5 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Oct 06, 2011 8:05 pm

I dont see it on the TWO...
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2011 8:09 pm

Florida1118 wrote:I dont see it on the TWO...


They have not put the yellow circle on the graphic,but here is the text.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2339.shtml
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#7 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Oct 06, 2011 8:13 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Florida1118 wrote:I dont see it on the TWO...


They have not put the yellow circle on the graphic,but here is the text.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2339.shtml

Ahh thank you :) I personally think itll be hard pressed to develop, with to whoppers moving toward it.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#8 Postby lilybeth » Fri Oct 07, 2011 12:06 am

They have not put the yellow circle on the graphic,but here is the text.


It is on there now. I can't believe there is another one in the EPAC. Wow. Crazy October over there.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#9 Postby Macrocane » Fri Oct 07, 2011 12:12 am

I'm not sure if this is the low that the models move over Central America, but even if it stays weak it would be a threat, on November 2009 a "weak" invest made landfall in El Salvador producing 15 inches of rain in less than 24 hours killing 200 people and leaving extensive damage across the country.
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#10 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 07, 2011 2:32 am

Next name is Kenneth.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2011 6:46 am

5 AM PDT TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2011 12:40 pm

Up to 30%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2011 1:33 pm

18z Tropical Models:

SHIP goes up in intensity with 99E after being non developer.Macrocane,this is very bad news for Central America as the models turn this towards that way.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC FRI OCT 7 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992011) 20111007 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111007  1800   111008  0600   111008  1800   111009  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  95.0W   11.1N  96.0W   11.1N  96.7W   11.3N  97.1W
BAMD    11.0N  95.0W   10.8N  96.0W   10.6N  96.7W   10.4N  97.4W
BAMM    11.0N  95.0W   11.1N  95.9W   11.1N  96.5W   11.1N  97.0W
LBAR    11.0N  95.0W   11.1N  95.5W   11.3N  95.9W   11.5N  96.2W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111009  1800   111010  1800   111011  1800   111012  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.6N  97.2W   13.3N  96.4W   15.0N  94.6W   17.3N  93.8W
BAMD    10.2N  97.9W    9.8N  99.0W    8.5N 100.5W    7.2N 102.2W
BAMM    11.2N  97.1W   12.2N  96.9W   12.7N  95.6W   14.0N  94.4W
LBAR    12.0N  96.5W   13.9N  97.5W   16.6N  99.0W   20.8N 100.2W
SHIP        46KTS          50KTS          51KTS          50KTS
DSHP        46KTS          50KTS          51KTS          50KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  95.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  10.5N LONM12 =  93.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =   9.7N LONM24 =  91.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#14 Postby Macrocane » Fri Oct 07, 2011 3:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Tropical Models:

SHIP goes up in intensity with 99E after being non developer.Macrocane,this is very bad news for Central America as the models turn this towards that way.



:eek: That's bad news cycloneye although the global models are not as intense as these hurricane models, anyway the biggest problem will be the rains and the global models are showing lots of rain next week.
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#15 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 07, 2011 3:23 pm

Is the MJO supposed to move into the gulf sometime next week?
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Re:

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2011 4:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Is the MJO supposed to move into the gulf sometime next week?


Yes,Gulf and Caribbean will get a rather strong wet MJO pulse. I have never seen this kind of forecast for MJO.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 07, 2011 6:34 pm

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 505 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON HURRICANE IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 945 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
LITTLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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#18 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 08, 2011 1:11 am

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2011 6:59 am

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON HURRICANE IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 940 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA
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#20 Postby bexar » Sat Oct 08, 2011 7:05 am

The EPac is going insane... very unusual activity in October in a La Nina year.
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