EPAC: TWELVE - Post - Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:03 am

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 080300
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 105 NM RADIUS OF 11.2N 95.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080230Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 95.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2011 12:54 pm

Up to 80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON HURRICANE IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 940 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

WELL-ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#23 Postby bg1 » Sat Oct 08, 2011 3:06 pm

What is causing all these cyclones in the EPAC? Instability? Last time I checked it was below normal. Wind shear? Temperatures? The MJO? I know that's favorable right now, but even before then?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#24 Postby Macrocane » Sat Oct 08, 2011 7:10 pm

Now 90%

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#25 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 08, 2011 7:48 pm

euro showing a weak tropical storm landfall over central america...
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 6:41 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 385 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 865 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE MEXICO-GUATEMALA BORDER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD...AND
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...
HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:00 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 835 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
MEXICO-GUATEMALA BORDER CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...
HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:44 pm

EP, 99, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 109N, 959W, 25, 1006, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#29 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 5:06 pm

LLC completly exposed and that is good news for Central America in terms of this not developing into a strong cyclone. But the bad news is if it does not develop,copius amounts of rain will fall in that area as it moves towards land.

Image

Uploaded by imageShack.us
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#30 Postby Macrocane » Sun Oct 09, 2011 6:19 pm

At least we won't have to deal with the wind, in El Salvador we're under green alert since yesterday and today the SNET released the first special report on the system, they're expecting the heaviest rains on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#31 Postby westwind » Sun Oct 09, 2011 6:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:LLC completly exposed and that is good news for Central America in terms of this not developing into a strong cyclone. But the bad news is if it does not develop,copius amounts of rain will fall in that area as it moves towards land.


Looking at the tragectory of the exposed center, which has been turning anticlockwise and is now heading back towards the convection, there are at least two LLCs orbiting each other. If this is the case another swirl should become exposed to the south of and around the same time as the currently exposed center re-enters the convection. Though this would limit intensification untill they consolidate into one defined LLC.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 6:48 pm

Down to 60%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 810 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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#33 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 1:13 am

Now 50%, let's just say they failed at it ;D



1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AND IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#34 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:48 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 715 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#35 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:56 am

Down in % but plenty of rain for parts of Central America.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ
MEXICO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE ON
THURSDAY....AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#36 Postby Macrocane » Tue Oct 11, 2011 7:54 am

Indeed cycloneye, the rains began last night and some accumulations of rain have reached very high levels in less than 24 hours, some of them:

Vado Marin 130 mm/5.12 inches
Santiago Nonualco 101 mm/3.98 inches
Acajutla 62 mm/2.44 inhces
Ishuatán 50 mm/1.97 inches
Antiguo Cuscatlán 38 mm/1.50 inches
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#37 Postby Macrocane » Tue Oct 11, 2011 10:50 am

Very heavy rains have been registered in El Salvador's coast, actually the heaviest since tropical storm Agatha on may 2010. The highest rainfall has been registered in La Hachadura (same place that had the highest rainfall from Agatha) with 245 mm/9.65inches this map shows the rainfall in the last 24 hours:

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#38 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2011 12:55 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JOVA...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ
MEXICO IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE ON THURSDAY....AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH MAY CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC: TWELVE - Tropical Depression

#39 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2011 5:22 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011
200 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND CURVATURE NEAR AND TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AT AROUND 04Z SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION AND THIS WAS
CONFIRMED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE
INITIATED AT THIS TIME. THE DEPRESSION HAS LIMITED TIME TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND...AND ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN...AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER LOSING DEFINITION BY 48 HOURS IN AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW THAT DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS AND LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4...AS THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE STEERING FLOW WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE GFS THROUGH DISSIPATION.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...EVEN AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.2N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/1800Z 15.9N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: TWELVE - Tropical Depression

#40 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 12, 2011 6:53 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011
500 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 93.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA
BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INLAND IN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE THE MEXICAN
STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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