WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Depression

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cebuboy
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Re: WPAC: 23W [Ramon] - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby cebuboy » Tue Oct 11, 2011 4:59 am

Hi Dexter,
Its raining here non-stop since noontime. Right now its becoming too cold. I check it out and there is a storm. We're lucky because there is still no strong wind, only rains. I do not know this late evening.

Thanks for the data...
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Re: WPAC: 23W [BANYAN] - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Oct 11, 2011 9:09 am

Upgraded to a TS now via JTWC following JMA's upgrade earlier today. Also noting they have it taking a much more southerly track now.

Image
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:22 pm

I am never confused like this before, JTWC is saying that landfall has occurred but JMA and PAGASA are saying that the storm is just about to make landfall in Northern Surigao. Anyone has an idea where the REAL center is right now? :roll:
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:26 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I am never confused like this before, JTWC is saying that landfall has occurred but JMA and PAGASA are saying that the storm is just about to make landfall in Northern Surigao. Anyone has an idea where the REAL center is right now? :roll:


There's a big discrepancy in the center position of JTWC and JMA/PAGASA.

I'm not sure who to follow LOL

It seems like JTWC's website is having technical problems at the moment so I can't tell if they made an update(The forecast for BANYAN is not shown)...
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#25 Postby bexar » Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:50 pm

PAG-ASA is never reliable.
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 11, 2011 7:46 pm

bexar wrote:PAG-ASA is never reliable.


Hmmm. :lol:

But in all fairness, they seem to base their forecasts with JMA and HKO in the previous months. Also, they do an upgrade of a storm at the same time when JMA is about to do so. Before, they had a mere low pressure area as a tropical storm but now I don't see something like that happening. lol. That's the best thing to do for safety.


Right now, I am relying on JMA (and PAGASA) forecasts because the JTWC site itself is having some technical issues right now, maybe they are also having issues in making the bulletins. Other asian weather agencies had the center of this storm at the same area as JMA.
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 11, 2011 7:51 pm

This is JTWC's latest warning. If you will look at the last part of this bulletin, you'll notice that there is something different compared to their other bulletins.



223
WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 9.7N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.9N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 12.0N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.2N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.4N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.3N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.4N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 123.2E.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
//
Image



Biggest discrepancy EVER.
Image
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby cebuboy » Tue Oct 11, 2011 9:13 pm

I agree there is something wrong with the PAGASA forecast. I checked out the satellite images yesterday in http://www.ssd.noaa.gov and around 9pm Cebu was on the center of the Tropical storm Ramon. Outside I could hear some moderately strong winds <100kph and lot of rains throughout the night.

I was thinking it could move to Aklan province today; it did. I checked out the Satellite images and the storm is over the Boracay region. Today in Cebu, its still cloudy but there are no more rains unlike yesterday.

Surprisingly, I still heard news over the radio and in my panicking neighbors that Cebu is Signal #2 and there will be strong winds and rains in the afternoon??? News is hardly reliable here even so if its coming from TV or radio...For accuracy and reliability, I instead checked out this forum and exactly looked at the satellite images.

Unreliability in news can cost lives.
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Oct 11, 2011 10:20 pm

I as well am not a big fan of putting down media, but the news out of the region disappoints me all to often. They often don't stress the correct stuff. And also don't act series when the situation calls for it.
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 11, 2011 10:26 pm

PAGASA and JMA seems to have made a relocation of the center of the system in their latest update...
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:58 am

God bless the southern philippines...
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 4:53 am

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 10.5N 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 121.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.6N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.8N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.9N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.9N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.0N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.1N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.0N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 121.0E.
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 121.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240NM
SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TD 23W IS GENERATING WEAK, WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS
ENCIRCLING THE SULU SEA. THE SYSTEM IS BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED, WITH
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER LAND. POSITION CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT HAS IMPROVED FROM PREVIOUS FIXES DUE TO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE EXTENDED
AVAILABILITY OF VISUAL IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM PRESSURE REPORTS FROM CEBU INTL (RPVM). THE LATEST
AMSU TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTION SUPPORTS A WEAK INTENSITY, REVEALING
ONLY A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY OVER THE SYSTEM. A 120000Z
SOUNDING AND SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM PUERTO PRINCESSA, PALAWAN
ISLAND CONFIRM THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN THE SULU SEA. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MILD IMPINGEMENT ON OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
120000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS SOME DIFFLUENCE
IN THE EASTERLY WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS POOR, WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ABOVE THE LLCC. THE EASTERLIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N 117E. THE
STEERING FORCE FOR TD 23W IS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF TAIWAN. THE RIDGE IS RE-ORIENTING EASTWARD AS
A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS AWAY FROM TAIWAN, TD 23W WILL FOLLOW ALONG THE WEAKNESS
ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TO A TRACK
JUST NORTH OF PALAWAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH
SLOW INTENSIFICATION ALONG TRACK AND A PEAK INTENSITY WELL BELOW
TYPHOON STRENGTH. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, TD 23W WILL LEAVE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE OCEANIC ANTICYCLONE AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
BUILDING ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, DRIVING THE STORM ON A
WESTERLY COURSE TOWARDS VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND
130900Z.//
NNNN


Image

TXPQ26 KNES 120924
TCSWNP

A. 23W (BANYAN)

B. 12/0832Z

C. 10.7N

D. 121.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR LLCC IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. 3/10 BROKEN BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET = 2.5 AND PT =
2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 997.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 3.5
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 12, 2011 5:13 am

I'm with JMA on this one, I really think the center of circulation is located north of Panay island. I could be wrong because all I am seeing are the colored IR and visible satloops. This is the first I see JTWC and JMA having different reports on the location of a storm's center with almost 200-km margin.

Image
Image


FROM PAGASA

Severe Weather Bulletin Number TEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "RAMON"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Wednesday, 12 October 2011
Tropical Depression"RAMON" has maintained its strength and changed its direction to the Nrthwest as it approaches Mndoro area.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 70 km Southwest of Romblon or at
70 km East Southeast of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro
Coordinates: 12.2°N, 121.6°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 15 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Thursday afternoon:
230 km West of Calapan City
Friday afternoon:
390 km West of Iba, Zambales
Saturday morning:
550 km West of Vigan, Ilocos Sur
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds)
Marinduque
Mindoro Provinces
Romblon
Southern Quezon
Burias Island
orthern Palawan
Calamian Group of Islands
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Metro Manila
Panay Island
Guimaras Island

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flashfloods, landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 5:41 am

Image

still organized as it travels over the philippines...
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#35 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Oct 13, 2011 3:55 am

now back on JMA's Typhoon Page

TD
Issued at 06:55 UTC, 13 October 2011
<Analyses at 13/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity - TD
Center position N13°35'(13.6°) E118°30'(118.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Depression

#36 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 13, 2011 4:00 am

WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 13.3N 116.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 116.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.4N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.6N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.5N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.4N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.9N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 116.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD AND WEAKLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING CLOSER TO THE CORE. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
LACKS DEEP CONVECTION, THE CONVECTION IS NOW OCCURRING IN BOTH
SEMICIRCLES. THE MOST RECENT AMSU RADIAL CROSS SECTION REVEALS THE
RETURN OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW.
SHIP REPORTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA COUPLED WITH A 130238Z ASCAT
IMAGE VERIFY THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT GENERATING EXTENSIVE WINDFIELDS.
ANIMATED MSI ALSO INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE VORTICES
CYCLING WITHIN THE SYSTEM, MAKING FOR A RELATIVELY WIDE DISPARITY IN
POSITION FIXES. THE PGTW 130000Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHEASTERN LUZON. TD 23W EXISTS UNDER
A MILDLY DIFFLUENT REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 29 TO 30 DEGREES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THERE IS NO LONGER AN IMPINGEMENT ON POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. TD 23W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE, WHICH IS WEAKENING AND RE-ORIENTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER TAIWAN. AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS, ITS INFLUENCE ON TD 23W WILL WANE AND A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CHINA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL PICK
UP THE STORM AND DRIVE IT ON A MORE WESTWARD COURSE TOWARDS THE
COAST OF VIETNAM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH
OF 15 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE. THUS, TD 23W WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48 AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG ITS
WESTWARD LEG. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC DUE TO THE
LOW INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, BUT HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE OBSERVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//


Image

still expected to strengthen in the south china sea


Image


TXPQ26 KNES 130328
TCSWNP

A. 23W (BANYAN)

B. 13/0232Z

C. 12.5N

D. 117.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MAKE LLCC DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE, HOWEVER CONVECTIVE BANDING APPEARS TO BE WELL REMOVED FROM
CENTER. GT 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET = 2.0 AND PT = 2.0. FT
IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.1mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.3
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#37 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 13, 2011 5:58 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 14.2N 117.8E POOR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 16.1N 116.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Depression

#38 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 13, 2011 10:17 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 116.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 116.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.4N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.1N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.9N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.2N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.0N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.9N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.1N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 116.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 13 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT
140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//

Image


WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO REGENERATE DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND A
132218Z SSMIS 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. RECENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TD
23W IS APPROXIMATELY 03 DEGREES WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. THE PROXIMITY TO THIS ANTICYCLONIC CENTER HAS
PROVIDED FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO 10-15
KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE.
TD 23W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS WEAKENING AND RE-
ORIENTING TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO EASTERN CHINA.
3. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. BANYAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA. BY
TAU 24 THIS NEW STEERING RIDGE SHOULD PUSH TD 23W WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE VIETNAMESE COAST. TD 23W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS SHOULD
REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY MOMENTARILY
IMPROVE AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES BY. BANYAN IS FORECASTED TO REACH
45 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND THEN MAINTAIN THAT INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA.
C. BY TAU 72, BANYAN SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF HAINAN, CHINA, AND
MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE TO WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR MAY INCREASE DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.
HOWEVER, BANYAN SHOULD BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND BE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN THE WARM CORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WBAR AND GFS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE WBAR ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE
SYSTEM INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND THE GFS TRACKS TD 23W
ON AN UNLIKELY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND
THEN LOOPS THE SYSTEM BACK ANTICYCLONICALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ACTIVE MERIDIONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN.
THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST
12 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS AND WABR.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BANYAN [RAMON] - Tropical Depression

#39 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Oct 14, 2011 4:04 am

I don't know about the track now, I think all and all this storm is dead, if it does go back South West it will go slowly with out much power.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS3b4oYe5dY[/youtube]
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#40 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:13 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 19.0N 117.3E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 19.9N 116.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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