ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[psyclone]

Never thought about that, makes sense I guess! Keep up the good work!

Thanks.

Do you work at Melbourne NWS?

I went to FL Tech and studied meteorology for a semester. I love it but was afraid of not finding employment after graduating. I remember we took a "field trip" to the Melbourne NWS. Was a fun day!

He sure does. And we appreciate his insights. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and answering our questions Tony:)

[NDG]

Buoy 41009 had a gust over 50 knots.

With substained winds of tropical force winds.

[psyclone]

Boy it looks like waterlogged Brevard county is about to get hammered with extremely heavy rain and probably some good winds as well.

[AdamFirst]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
527 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

* TIMING...AFTER 6 PM VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OFFSHORE OUT
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SOME POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR DAMAGE ARE LIKELY MAINLY
DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS AND GUSTY WINDS KNOCKING DOWN SHALLOW
ROOTED TREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

Just missing it to the north

[chris_fit]

Looks like it's trying to wrap around on radar... Satellite VIS still looks like a mess though.

Winds are still picking up here in Melbourne.

[AdamFirst]

In contrast, we're in a period of calm weather here in Port Saint Lucie. Winds have really died down.

[ronjon]

Wow, almost looks like a west eyewall on radar - look out Melbourne.

[urlhttp://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=MLB&loop=yes][/url]

[NDG]

Cocoa Beach area:

Conditions at: KCOF (PATRICK AFB/COCO, FL, US) observed 2210 UTC 09 October 2011
Temperature: 23.0°C (73°F)
Dewpoint: 21.0°C (70°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1007.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1007.8 mb]
Winds: from the NE (40 degrees) at 43 MPH (37 knots; 19.2 m/s)
gusting to 54 MPH (47 knots; 24.4 m/s)
Visibility: 3 miles (5 km)
Ceiling: 900 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 900 feet AGL
Weather: -RA BR (light rain, mist)

[AdamFirst]

From the impact weather blog from NWS Melbourne

Posted at 5:47 PM

Very strong winds Volusia to Indian River coast
Radar continues to show a large area of winds from 40 to 45 mph with gusts to 58 mph or higher approaching the coast from around Ponce Inlet to Sebastian Inlet. Strong winds will extend down the coast to Vero Beach and Fort Pierce and north of Ponce Inlet to Daytona Beach. The strongest winds and gusts will be felt right at the coast...barrier islands...the Mosquito and Indian River Lagoons in Coastal Volusia and Brevard counties and reach the mainland east of U.S. the same two counties. A large area of moderate rain with gusts to around 30 mph was moving across Coastal Volusia and Brevard counties spreading west of Interstate 95 and into Inland Volusa and eastern portions of Seminole...Orange and Osceola counties.

[AJC3]

Looks like it's trying to wrap around on radar... Satellite VIS still looks like a mess though.

Winds are still picking up here in Melbourne.

Blowing wicked hard over here in in West Melbourne, too. I can imagine how nuts it is beachside.

[AdamFirst]

For AJC, as I mentioned earlier it is calm in Port Saint Lucie now, not that far south of the circulation. The air is very still. Why would that be?

[brunota2003]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLVIERA2

Wx Station in Melbourne recently reported winds of 36 mph...peak gust so far is 44 mph.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLSMERR1

This one in River Grove is reporting winds of 38 mph, with gusts up to 47 mph.

[viberama]

Winds have been increasing and Pressures have been dropping steadily all day today in Daytona Beach:

http://www2.club977.com/weather/977musicwx.html

The strongest winds so far during the past two days are occuring right now.

[AJC3]

For AJC, as I mentioned earlier it is calm in Port Saint Lucie now, not that far south of the circulation. The air is very still. Why would that be?

There is little to no wind south and southwest of the low center because there's really no pressure gradient to speak of. Remember the structure of this system - there's a second low off the SW Florida coast and a trough running NE from that to the low near you. So as far as the wind and squalls, the shows pretty much over for you guys and points south.

[NDG]

56 mph gust at Patrick Airforce Base!
Pressure keeps falling.

METAR text: KCOF 092226Z AUTO 04041G49KT 3SM -RA BKN009 23/20 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 03049/2224 CLDS LWR RWY20 SLP069
Conditions at: KCOF (PATRICK AFB/COCO, FL, US) observed 2226 UTC 09 October 2011
Temperature: 23.0°C (73°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C (68°F) [RH = 83%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.73 inches Hg (1006.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1006.9 mb]
Winds: from the NE (40 degrees) at 47 MPH (41 knots; 21.3 m/s)
gusting to 56 MPH (49 knots; 25.5 m/s)
Visibility: 3 miles (5 km)
Ceiling: 900 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 900 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

[brunota2003]

Cocoa Beach now reporting 47 mph winds with gusts up to 56 mph!

[Rainband]

For AJC, as I mentioned earlier it is calm in Port Saint Lucie now, not that far south of the circulation. The air is very still. Why would that be?

There is little to no wind south and southwest of the low center because there's really no pressure gradient to speak of. Remember the structure of this system - there's a second low off the SW Florida coast and a trough running NE from that to the low near you. So as far as the wind and squalls, the shows pretty much over for you guys and points south.

so this area will move across the state tonight?

[brunota2003]

Looking at Base Velocity, there are areas of 50 to 55 knot winds about ~800 feet off the surface east of Cocoa Beach, FL.

[AJC3]

For the record...I'd guesstimate better than a 95% chance that this will get BT'd as an STS. Very little doubt in my mind, even though it wasn't carried operationally as such (for the reasons I mentioned earlier).

[cycloneye]

For the record...I'd guesstimate better than a 95% chance that this will get BT'd as an STS. Very little doubt in my mind, even though it wasn't carried operationally as such (for the reasons I mentioned earlier).

They already began to track this with the SS classification on best track.

AL, 93, 2011100818, , BEST, 0, 240N, 770W, 35, 1011, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100900, , BEST, 0, 250N, 773W, 35, 1010, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100906, , BEST, 0, 260N, 778W, 35, 1009, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100912, , BEST, 0, 268N, 785W, 35, 1008, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest