ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

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psyclone
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#101 Postby psyclone » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:34 pm

it looks like dry air is quickly wrapping around on the south side. cloud tops have warmed too. perhaps it has peaked?
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Re:

#102 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:37 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Lol...apparently he has never dealt with a Nor'Easter before? Or a strong tropical wave/midlevel low? Strong pressure gradients causing very strong winds are pretty common...


no, i can not say it is common to have nor'easters in FLORIDA
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Re:

#103 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:46 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Lol...apparently he has never dealt with a Nor'Easter before? Or a strong tropical wave/midlevel low? Strong pressure gradients causing very strong winds are pretty common...



Nope, Nor Easters are not comon down here, otherwise they would had been called Sour Easters ;)

Many reports of wind gusts of 60-70 mph as the low pressure center gets closer to Cape Canaveral area, very close to the COC, not very common for nontropical systems.
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Re:

#104 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:49 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Lol...apparently he has never dealt with a Nor'Easter before? Or a strong tropical wave/midlevel low? Strong pressure gradients causing very strong winds are pretty common...


This is a solid TS imo and the very tight center looks like it is about to cross Cape Canaveral. GFS ftw.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#105 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:52 pm

Here's a nor'easter that hit NC and later even developed an "eye" on IR imagery. One difference, though, is 93L obviously has a warm core (temps jumped up as the center approached).

Nonetheless, still an interesting read...and yes, the winds do increase as the center approaches in those too...because the pressure gradient usually gets tighter!

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReview ... 050306.php
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#106 Postby fci » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:56 pm

Funny from the Cape Canaveral page on Weatherunderground:

Tonight
Thunderstorm 71 °F
T-storms
80% chance of precipitation
Tropical Storm 93
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#107 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:07 pm

Playalinda, right by the tip of Cape Canaveral, reported a wind gust of 69 mph, according to Tom Terry from Channel 9 here in Orlando.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#108 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:11 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1106 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

...DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN BREVARD COAST NEAR
CAPE CANAVERAL...

LATEST DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS CURRENTLY JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN BREVARD COAST.

THE BAND OF STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY IS SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD AND IS APPROACHING
MAINLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. NUMEROUS WIND TOWERS
AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL CONTINUE TO REPORT GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 65
MPH...WITH TWO TOWERS REPORTING GUSTS TO 75 MPH.


FREQUENT GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COCOA
BEACH...PORT CANAVERAL...THE MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE...AND
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
ALONG THE MAINLAND PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF US 1 NORTH OF
ROCKLEDGE WHICH WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS UP 50 MPH...INCREASING TO 60
MPH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

AS THIS LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST EAST OF I-95 WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS COASTAL
NORTHERN BREVARD AND COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES...AND ADDITIONAL
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THESE
WINDS. THE EXTREMELY MOIST GROUND WILL MAKE DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES LIKELY. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO CAUSE DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND
SMALL OBJECTS BECOMING AIRBORNE. WINDS OF THESE SPEEDS WILL CHURN UP
WAVES WITHIN LOCAL MARINAS WHICH MAY CAUSE BOATS TO BECOME LOOSE
FROM THEIR MOORINGS AND DAMAGE TO DOCKS AND MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
ALONG BEACH AND RIVER FRONT LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE
DRIVING ACROSS LOCAL CAUSEWAYS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#109 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:24 pm

definitely looks like it has weakened A LOT over the last two hours on the Melbourne radar as it is starting to come ashore...not much on the radar anymore
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#110 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:24 pm

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER LOCATED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EAST COASTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LACK SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND
MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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#111 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:29 pm

non tropical gale center

a quick google search shows that is a new expression
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#112 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:31 pm

It's a non-tropical (not tropical cyclone) low pressure area producing gale force winds.
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Re:

#113 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:34 pm

brunota2003 wrote:It's a non-tropical (not tropical cyclone) low pressure area producing gale force winds.



i understand it but had never seen it phrased that way so i checked google and didn't see it used before either
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#114 Postby capepoint » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:35 pm

What difference does a name make? The public was warned that a storm was coming. Gale and storm warnings for the coast and ocean waters, inland wind warnings for the land masses. True, it's not common for Florida to see a strong nor'easter, but it does happen. The only difference that a named storm would make, is that the media would have over-played it, and then next week everyone would be accusing them of crying wolf again.
If the public chooses to ignore storm warnings that are not tropical in nature, well, thats their own falut. :cry:
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Re: Re:

#115 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:35 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:It's a non-tropical (not tropical cyclone) low pressure area producing gale force winds.



i understand it but had never seen it phrased that way so i checked google and didn't see it used before either

I think it is one of the new terms like "post tropical cyclone" that they are trying to use to better define things.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#116 Postby psyclone » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:44 pm

capepoint wrote:What difference does a name make? The public was warned that a storm was coming. Gale and storm warnings for the coast and ocean waters, inland wind warnings for the land masses. True, it's not common for Florida to see a strong nor'easter, but it does happen. The only difference that a named storm would make, is that the media would have over-played it, and then next week everyone would be accusing them of crying wolf again.
If the public chooses to ignore storm warnings that are not tropical in nature, well, thats their own falut. :cry:

Ding ding ding. I give you the award for post of the night. as if a 60kt wind on lake superior is to be ignored 'cause it didn't have a name. it was strong enough to sink a named ship in november 1975. you guys in eastern nc can teach the rest of us a lesson. you live in the overlap zone of both noreasters and named tropical cyclones. 60mph is 60mph. name or no name. i frankly don't understand the obsession with these stupid names. who cares? the academics can sort that crap out later. in the meantime if a tree is down in your front yard a name doesn't matter. we go through the same thing in severe season. i guess an 80mph straight line wind lacks the cache of an ef1 tornado. but if it tore off your front porch does it really matter outside the world of the academics? not really.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#117 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 11:04 pm

As a matter of fact...with most of the strong winds being from the NE, it reminds me a lot of this storm that impacted NC in April 2005...high winds, storm warnings, 20+ foot waves, coastal flooding...and a very, very raw day:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReview ... 050415.php

Same nor'easter as above, with corrected date (May 6). We experienced gusts up to 80 mph, with some areas having sustained winds 45-55 mph.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReview ... 050506.php

These are just for anyone who wants to read more about Nor'Easters.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#118 Postby Macrocane » Sun Oct 09, 2011 11:18 pm

psyclone wrote: I frankly don't understand the obsession with these stupid names. who cares? the academics can sort that crap out later. in the meantime if a tree is down in your front yard a name doesn't matter. we go through the same thing in severe season. i guess an 80mph straight line wind lacks the cache of an ef1 tornado.


I don't think names are crap, they have their function and I guess it's important because every big basin around the world has names for their tropical cyclones, although I agree that some people is kind of obsessed with named storms. This system is a very interesting one for its complex origin and development, tropical or not.
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#119 Postby psyclone » Sun Oct 09, 2011 11:22 pm

at this juncture i'm really glad the nhc didn't upgrade as they system has really degraded on sat and radar doesn't show much convective wise either. it looked like half of a tropical or subtropical cyclone for about 2 hours or so east of melbourne earlier this evening. it's easy to second guess the nhc but when the dust settles they usually make the right call. i remember plenty of posts critical of the nhc for not posting ts watches or warnings for the east coast of fl during irene but it turned out to be a spot on call and one of significance imo for i believe overwarning is the primary cause of complacency. in any case, what an interesting system this has been to watch.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#120 Postby psyclone » Sun Oct 09, 2011 11:24 pm

Macrocane wrote:
psyclone wrote: I frankly don't understand the obsession with these stupid names. who cares? the academics can sort that crap out later. in the meantime if a tree is down in your front yard a name doesn't matter. we go through the same thing in severe season. i guess an 80mph straight line wind lacks the cache of an ef1 tornado.


I don't think names are crap, they have their function and I guess it's important because every big basin around the world has names for their tropical cyclones, although I agree that some people is kind of obsessed with named storms. This system is a very interesting one for its complex origin and development, tropical or not.

i wish names were confined to hurricanes.
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