ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#121 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 11:39 pm

psyclone wrote:
Macrocane wrote:
psyclone wrote: I frankly don't understand the obsession with these stupid names. who cares? the academics can sort that crap out later. in the meantime if a tree is down in your front yard a name doesn't matter. we go through the same thing in severe season. i guess an 80mph straight line wind lacks the cache of an ef1 tornado.


I don't think names are crap, they have their function and I guess it's important because every big basin around the world has names for their tropical cyclones, although I agree that some people is kind of obsessed with named storms. This system is a very interesting one for its complex origin and development, tropical or not.

i wish names were confined to hurricanes.

I do believe the whole point of names are to:
1) Be able to say (for example) Danny is heading North, Erin is in the Carribean, and Franklin is by the CV islands; Instead of saying Storm 1 at 31.6 N 40.6 W, Storm 2 at 10.35 N 20.66W, etc etc. Its easier to say names than coordinates.
2) Would you rather say: "Oh Katrina, that was a bad storm" or "Oh The Great Levee Break System of 2005, that was a bad storm". Easier to remember instead of the old way of place, year, etc.
---------------------------
Nameing is just another statistic, some people like ACE, some like MH, some like NS. Its not BAD that you like NS over ACE or whatever. Also, If we only name Hurricanes, then all the Tropical Storms of lets say 70mph arent important? Or the ones that flood places? aka Fay, Allison...The WMO says we name TS, so we do. Simple.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#122 Postby fci » Sun Oct 09, 2011 11:46 pm

Florida1118 wrote:
psyclone wrote:
I don't think names are crap, they have their function and I guess it's important because every big basin around the world has names for their tropical cyclones, although I agree that some people is kind of obsessed with named storms. This system is a very interesting one for its complex origin and development, tropical or not.

i wish names were confined to hurricanes.

I do believe the whole point of names are to:
1) Be able to say (for example) Danny is heading North, Erin is in the Carribean, and Franklin is by the CV islands; Instead of saying Storm 1 at 31.6 N 40.6 W, Storm 2 at 10.35 N 20.66W, etc etc. Its easier to say names than coordinates.
2) Would you rather say: "Oh Katrina, that was a bad storm" or "Oh The Great Levee Break System of 2005, that was a bad storm". Easier to remember instead of the old way of place, year, etc.
---------------------------
Nameing is just another statistic, some people like ACE, some like MH, some like NS. Its not BAD that you like NS over ACE or whatever. Also, If we only name Hurricanes, then all the Tropical Storms of lets say 70mph arent important? Or the ones that flood places? aka Fay, Allison...The WMO says we name TS, so we do. Simple.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Should we start naming Nor'easters?
This system is more characteristic of a Nor'easter than a Tropical Storm.
And to the point made on the prior page in, what I also agree was the post of the night; what is the difference on this particular system?
Read what AJC3 said a few pages ago. At that point it was moot whether this had a name or not and the work required to give it a name after all the proper warnings were already in place was not worth the effort while monitoring the situation to provide timely updates as needed to their citizenry.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#123 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 11:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:I am only speculating but maybe this gets a review at post season analysis.


This is what I meant when I made my earlier post that it would eventually make it's way into the official BT database as a STC after post-season review. Again, for others who may not be aware, just because this system was handled operationally by NHC and our WFO in the manner it was, that won't preclude it from being looked at and reanalyzed as a STC in the post-season. This was not a true tropical cyclone. It didn't have the structure, nor did it have the formative process of one.
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Re:

#124 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 12:05 am

LarryWx wrote:The GFS runs of THU/FRI and wxman57 are scoring an amazing victory imo. As was noted, in just three hours time, the buoy 50 miles E of Cape Canaveral has seen a pressure fall of 0.24"/8 mb! The SST is 82F, easily warm enough for tropical development as the low moves NW still just offshore.

6 PM 28.5N 80.2W 74 82 10/ 31/ 39 1008.6F 20/12 16/12
7 PM 28.5N 80.2W 73 82 10/ 39/ 47 1006.8F 19/11 15/11
8 PM 28.5N 80.2W 77 82 20/ 41/ 54 1003.4F 22/11 18/11
9 PM 28.5N 80.2W 78 82 30/ 45/ 54 1000.6F



Obviously you'll get no argument from me on this end that the low affecting the east coast was the more significant of the two surface features - in a big way.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#125 Postby beoumont » Mon Oct 10, 2011 1:56 am

Now that my power is back on here in Vero Beach:

At 7:30 pm I drove to coast. On boardwalk, winds were gusting to estimated 55 mph; and I was getting sandblasted. Breakers around 7 ft; and waves were washing under boardwalk, hitting "seawall." Pressure 1003 mb at around 8 pm. Lightning in cloud deck to north every second or less for nearly 1/2 hour.

Once I drove away from beach, winds were not gusting over 40 mph, just 1/2 mile inland. Dropped off to 5-10 mph from the NW at 9 pm on US 1,

Video frame below shot at 6:30 pm from mainland Vero Beach, looking south; winds gusting to 40, from NNW, center of low NE of here a little, pressure 1005:
Image
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#126 Postby senorpepr » Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:14 am

Interesting that the subtropical storm notation on ATCF has been replaced by a low...

AL, 93, 2011100818, , BEST, 0, 240N, 770W, 35, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100900, , BEST, 0, 250N, 773W, 35, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100906, , BEST, 0, 260N, 778W, 35, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100912, , BEST, 0, 268N, 785W, 35, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 225, 1015, 275, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 250, 90, 0, 225, 1009, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2011101006, , BEST, 0, 289N, 812W, 40, 1002, LO, 34, NEQ, 250, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Re:

#127 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:38 am

senorpepr wrote:Interesting that the subtropical storm notation on ATCF has been replaced by a low...

AL, 93, 2011100818, , BEST, 0, 240N, 770W, 35, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100900, , BEST, 0, 250N, 773W, 35, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100906, , BEST, 0, 260N, 778W, 35, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100912, , BEST, 0, 268N, 785W, 35, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 225, 1015, 275, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 250, 90, 0, 225, 1009, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2011101006, , BEST, 0, 289N, 812W, 40, 1002, LO, 34, NEQ, 250, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Interesting that it showed SS earlier as both you and Luis pointed out.

I'm only speculating here, but it may be simply a matter of following protocol until the storm is thoroughly analyzed post season, and an "official declaration" is made one way or the other. I think this will go down in the books as a STS and you'll see its track plotted with all the other TC's when the 2011 seasonal map comes out.

This is simply my opinion and does not represent any official opinion of the agency for which I work.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#128 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:52 am

I know that in 1987 there was an unnamed tropical storm that made landfall in the U.S. But given the tendencies of certain private weather agencies, one in particular that rhymes with leather cell, upgrading this post season would be a goldmine to said certain private weather agency: "The NHC can't recognize tropical cyclones as they occur; however we here at [weather agency] can and did. Blah, blah, blah."

Yeah, that shouldn't be a consideration, but this wouldn't have been touched in most other basins in the world. (The JMA actually might have upgraded something like this, not sure.) So, to save some headaches, it could be ignored with some justification like "dewpoints too low, stratocumulus present on the western side of circulation." (I don't think convective definition would be an argument against since it was classifiable by the H-P technique.)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#129 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 4:08 am

Small nocturnal convective blowup right over the center. The whole structure is looking more well defined in the METARs and both satellite and radar - perhaps some frictional convergence is going on as well. It looks like the center has turned almost due west, but it's pretty far north now. It might have a small chance to re-invigorate some more, assuming it reaches Apalachee Bay, however it would have had a better chance had it crossed the peninsula farther south.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#130 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 4:22 am

dwsqos2 wrote:I know that in 1987 there was an unnamed tropical storm that made landfall in the U.S. But given the tendencies of certain private weather agencies, one in particular that rhymes with leather cell, upgrading this post season would be a goldmine to said certain private weather agency: "The NHC can't recognize tropical cyclones as they occur; however we here at [weather agency] can and did. Blah, blah, blah."

Yeah, that shouldn't be a consideration, but this wouldn't have been touched in most other basins in the world. (The JMA actually might have upgraded something like this, not sure.) So, to save some headaches, it could be ignored with some justification like "dewpoints too low, stratocumulus present on the western side of circulation." (I don't think convective definition would be an argument against since it was classifiable by the H-P technique.)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


While I don't claim to know the motives of any spoken or unspoken private weather services, as I mentioned in an earlier post (which I tweeted in pieces to JB) sometimes true by-the-book scientific veracity needs to take a back seat for the sake of operational expediency. Those are just big 50-cent words to sum up my defense of how this was handled operationally.

All of the associated sensible weather conditions associated with this system were well-warned for, well in advance. We adjusted to the increasing strength of the winds and seas by tweaking our Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning, and our Gale Warning to a Storm Warning. This was boatloads easier to adjust than the nightmare that would have ensued had NHC decided to delcare it a STC just off our coast, as I explained earlier.

One can beat the drum all night long about whether this became a STC (no argument from me) or a TC (BIG argument from me - it wasn't) offshore our coast, but noone will ever convince me that jumping from the "Gale horse" to the "STC horse" late in the game was the right way to go operationally, because it wasn't.

/soapbox off
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#131 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:41 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA ABOUT
15 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE FLORIDA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE
LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS DEFINED...AND THE CHANCE OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS
DECREASING SINCE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA...INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#132 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:14 am

Whats I find interesting was with the SS designation on ATCF combined with the TWO yesterday saying it didn't have a well defined circulation seems to imply that it was a system with subtropical characteristics that they we're just waiting for the circulation to tighten up.

buoy data that showed a very clear tight circulation yesterday evening so that should mean they initiate advisories based on what they we're saying in the TWO/ATCF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#133 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:25 am

I can certainly speak for a private weather company. Whether or not this system is classified as an STS post-season would make no difference at all to our clients. What matters is that the clients were advised of expected weather conditions well in advance of any necessary actions that they had to take.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#134 Postby capepoint » Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:30 am

wxman57 wrote:......... Whether or not this system is classified as an STS post-season would make no difference at all to our clients. What matters is that the clients were advised of expected weather conditions well in advance of any necessary actions that they had to take.



Bullseye! Agree 100% with you, I do.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#135 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:37 am

I think this would have developed had it stayed over the Gulf.


I'm convinced the tail-end of the front from a week ago resulted in this system, only conditions were not favorable enough to crank it.
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#136 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:54 pm

What would be the best thing to have called this? It was non-frontal but not continuously convective.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#137 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:37 pm

Looks more like a Nor'Easter than the less than day old remnants of a TC. I agree with a no call on this one, at least operationally.

Kind of close up visible from earlier this afternoon:

Image

Wide image of the low, with associated front.

Image
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#138 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:52 pm

This could still be a major weather event though, name or no name.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#139 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:12 pm

Looks more like an extratropical storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#140 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:28 am

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al932011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110110612
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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