ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#61 Postby capepoint » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:31 pm

Hard to say, but probably the reason it is not going to get a name is because it's impossible to separate what winds are being caused by the low itself, and what winds are coming from the pressure gradient set-up. You don't have to read very far between the lines to see that they feel like most winds are from the gradient, not the low itself. Winds in the absense of precipitation bands indicate to me that most of these winds are not solely from the low, but from the tight gradient. Absence of westerlies add to this argument.
It's not too uncommon, just usually happens further north. We had winds here in march of 93 that topped hurricane force, from a similar set-up. It's just a strong nor'easter right now, and probably will remain so.
With that being said, be careful out there. Nor'easters can be much more destructive than hurricanes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#62 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:39 pm

capepoint wrote:Hard to say, but probably the reason it is not going to get a name is because it's impossible to separate what winds are being caused by the low itself, and what winds are coming from the pressure gradient set-up. You don't have to read very far between the lines to see that they feel like most winds are from the gradient, not the low itself. Winds in the absense of precipitation bands indicate to me that most of these winds are not solely from the low, but from the tight gradient. Absence of westerlies add to this argument.
It's not too uncommon, just usually happens further north. We had winds here in march of 93 that topped hurricane force, from a similar set-up. It's just a strong nor'easter right now, and probably will remain so.
With that being said, be careful out there. Nor'easters can be much more destructive than hurricanes.

I second this...we saw quite a few Nor'easters in the March time frame, over my years of living in NC, that produced strong winds in the low 40s with gusts in the upper 50s/lower 60s. They cause more damage than you think, especially when they spring up out of nowhere and no one is ready! Also, another reason I think they might not be upgrading is that there are plenty of N/NE winds, and even a few reports of E winds...but I have yet to see anything beyond that.

Buoy 41009 is reporting sustained winds of 47 mph, with gusts to 62.6 mph. Pressure is 29.63" or 1003.4 millibars.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#63 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track

Up to 40kts and pressure down to 1005 mbs.

AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, SS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest


Best Track and SSD dvorak agree on Subtropical classification by the 2.5 T number given that is in line with what BT has on the wind intensity.

09/2345 UTC 28.4N 80.2W ST2.5 93L -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#64 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track

Up to 40kts and pressure down to 1005 mbs.

AL, 93, 2011101000, , BEST, 0, 280N, 800W, 40, 1005, SS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest


Actual lowest pressures are lower than 1,005 mb because the SLP at a buoy 50 miles E of Cape Canaveral has dropped sharply to 1,003.4 mb!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#65 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:43 pm

didn't you just post that? Am I seeing double :lol:
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#66 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:44 pm

Pressures are sig. lower than were progged by all model runs except, interestingly enough, those THU/FRI GFS runs I posted showing a pretty well organized low moving NNW not far from where the low is now. The lowest pressure on those THU/FRI runs was 1,003 mb (and 1,000 mb on a Wed. run as it headed further NNW toward GA). The lowest is now down at least as low as 1,003 mb and is moving either NW or NNW! It will be interesting to see how this evolves. At the very least, it appears to me that the GFS, which was mostly on its own with its E of FL pretty well organized sfc low, is suddenly looking like a guru!!

Check out the conditions at a buoy at 28.5 N, 80.2 W, which is ~50 miles E of Cape Canaveral **note the 3.4 mb/0.10" fall in pressure during just the last hour!** Also, note the 4 F temp. rise from 73 F to 77 F. Also, note the SST of 82 F there...plenty warm enough to allow for tropical development:

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)

6 PM 28.5N 80.2W 74 82 10/ 31/ 39 1008.6F 20/12 16/12
7 PM 28.5N 80.2W 73 82 10/ 39/ 47 1006.8F 19/11 15/11
8 PM 28.5N 80.2W 77 82 20/ 41/ 54 1003.4F 22/11 18/11
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#67 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:45 pm

there is still a circulation in the GOM off ft myers. Near the trof axis that spawned 93L.
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#68 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:45 pm

It's a very still, clear night here in Port Saint Lucie now. Heck of a lightning show to our north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#69 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:45 pm

Rainband wrote:didn't you just post that? Am I seeing double :lol:


I quoted Best Track with the post of SSD dvorak numbers. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#70 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Rainband wrote:didn't you just post that? Am I seeing double :lol:


I quoted Best Track with the post of SSD dvorak numbers. :)
my bad luis. Long day :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#71 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:53 pm

That heavy batch of rain should be pushing ashore between Cape Canaveral and Cocoa Beach during the next 30 to 45 minutes...will be interesting to see the winds in it. Another heavy batch is forming to the east of the one just starting to push ashore.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#72 Postby capepoint » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:56 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
capepoint wrote:Hard to say, but probably the reason it is not going to get a name is because it's impossible to separate what winds are being caused by the low itself, and what winds are coming from the pressure gradient set-up. You don't have to read very far between the lines to see that they feel like most winds are from the gradient, not the low itself. Winds in the absense of precipitation bands indicate to me that most of these winds are not solely from the low, but from the tight gradient. Absence of westerlies add to this argument.
It's not too uncommon, just usually happens further north. We had winds here in march of 93 that topped hurricane force, from a similar set-up. It's just a strong nor'easter right now, and probably will remain so.
With that being said, be careful out there. Nor'easters can be much more destructive than hurricanes.

I second this...we saw quite a few Nor'easters in the March time frame, over my years of living in NC, that produced strong winds in the low 40s with gusts in the upper 50s/lower 60s. They cause more damage than you think, especially when they spring up out of nowhere and no one is ready! Also, another reason I think they might not be upgrading is that there are plenty of N/NE winds, and even a few reports of E winds...but I have yet to see anything beyond that.

Buoy 41009 is reporting sustained winds of 47 mph, with gusts to 62.6 mph. Pressure is 29.63" or 1003.4 millibars.


Plus, look at the air temps. upper 60's and low 70's. Not tropical.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#73 Postby chris_fit » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:59 pm

Wind reallllly died down here in Melbourne/Palm Bay
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#74 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:01 pm

Buoy 41009 now reporting a pressure of 1002 mb! This has tropical charecteristics!

Conditions at 41009 as of
(8:20 pm EDT on 10/09/2011)
0020 GMT on 10/10/2011:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 44.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 54.4 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.60 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.5 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 81.5 °F


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
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#75 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:04 pm

29.60" = 1002.4 millibars
44.7 knots = 51.4 mph
54.4 knots = 62.6 mph

On a side note...the Shuttle Landing Facility's Wx station is not reporting...which is right in the area where that band is coming ashore...
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Re:

#76 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:08 pm

RL3AO wrote:Joe Bastardi
respectfully disagree with TPC. Data buoy pressure is down 4 mb in 2 hours with gusts of 55-60. This is a tight system over warm water


Make that 5 mb drop in 2 hrs, almost 8 mb in 3 hrs!
And look at the winds.

Image
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#77 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:11 pm

We'll see, as it passes by, what kind of a wind shift we get at the buoy...whether there is little to none, or if it is a sharp shift. My bet, just looking at the obs from the areas, leans toward little to none.

Correction:
There are finally NW winds showing up on local coastal obs...Melbourne is NW. How sharp is the shift, though?
Last edited by brunota2003 on Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#78 Postby bexar » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:12 pm

is this system going to be named?
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Re: Re:

#79 Postby fci » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:13 pm

AJC3 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:I don't understand why this isn't named already. NHC has named storms that looked tons worse than this.

Clearly we had development of a LCC this afternoon... The winds are there TS force, and it's right next to land. Take a look at the buoys offshore for wind readings. I'm by i-95 in Brevard County and I would say it's gusting to 35-40mph already.

I mean really? Look at this on Radar...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes


You probably don't realize what a logistical nightmare this would cause our office to name this thing at such a late hour. We would have to cancel the Gale Warning, High Surf Advisory, Wind Advisory and Lake Wind Advisory that have been up now for two days and replace them with Subtropical Storm Warning. We would need to put out products cancelling the current advisories, and then issue a Subtropical Storm Local Statement, update the Zone Forecasts, Coastal Waters Forecast Hazardous Weather Outlook, our blog and Short term Forecast. Local graphics would have to be updated as well as our forecast grids.

All this for a low center that will be moving inland shortly.

All this to describe sensible weather conditions that have been well-handled by the current suite of products.

To name this thing would be counter-productive and create a bunch of duplicative work.

Something to think about before we start calling out folks within our agency.


Thank you for posting this Tony!
We (well at least "I") really don't know the ramifications of things like naming a storm and the effect that it has on you guys at the local offices.
And for a system that isn't about to ramp up to something more than what you have produced products for.
Wow, a totally different perspective!!!!
Appreciate it.
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#80 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:14 pm

down to 1000.6 mb now at the buoy!!!!!! 3 mb down in last hour!!!! Uh oh!

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
28.5N 80.2W 78 82 30/ 45/ 54 1000.6F
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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