ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

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ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 4:22 pm

18 UTC models:

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TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC SUN OCT 9 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INVEST (AL932011) 20111009 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111009  1800   111010  0600   111010  1800   111011  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.4N  79.4W   28.7N  81.8W   29.9N  83.8W   30.6N  85.1W
BAMD    27.4N  79.4W   29.8N  80.4W   32.1N  82.0W   34.7N  83.1W
BAMM    27.4N  79.4W   28.9N  81.1W   30.3N  82.7W   31.5N  83.7W
LBAR    27.4N  79.4W   29.3N  80.9W   31.3N  82.4W   33.4N  83.4W
SHIP        35KTS          39KTS          44KTS          45KTS
DSHP        35KTS          32KTS          29KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111011  1800   111012  1800   111013  1800   111014  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    31.4N  85.3W   33.7N  83.3W   38.1N  77.3W   44.8N  73.1W
BAMD    37.5N  83.3W   44.4N  81.4W   50.6N  80.8W   54.2N  85.6W
BAMM    32.9N  83.9W   37.4N  81.8W   43.8N  79.2W   48.1N  81.4W
LBAR    35.8N  83.8W   42.0N  79.1W   46.0N  64.9W   45.9N  52.0W
SHIP        43KTS          36KTS          26KTS           0KTS
DSHP        27KTS          27KTS          29KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  27.4N LONCUR =  79.4W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  26.0N LONM12 =  77.8W DIRM12 = 329DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  24.0N LONM24 =  77.0W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD =  275NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  225NM RD34SE =  250NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW = 225NM
 
$$
NNNN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 6:56 pm

After many runs between the two top models ECMWF going west of Florida Penninsula and GFS tracking close to the east of Florida Penninsula, GFS was the one that in the end was right.
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#3 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:39 pm

You have to throw a bone to the Canadian too, it showed this event happening the past couple days
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Re:

#4 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:47 pm

AdamFirst wrote:You have to throw a bone to the Canadian too, it showed this event happening the past couple days
but it favored the western low. Seems possible the two may still merge. Interesting pressures across all of florida.
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#5 Postby Nimbus » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:15 pm

The NOGAPS model has this crossing Florida going out into the gulf then hooking back southeast. The NOGAPS must close off the current weakness that would otherwise pull this quickly north. Once it gets inland probably south of Daytona Beach it should dry out some.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#6 Postby stormchazer » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:After many runs between the two top models ECMWF going west of Florida Penninsula and GFS tracking close to the east of Florida Penninsula, GFS was the one that in the end was right.


Check out the report from WFLA in Tampa. Maybe they were both right.

http://www2.tbo.com/weather/2011/oct/09/sunday-night-tampa-bay-forecast-1091-61550-vi-24467/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#7 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:41 pm

stormchazer wrote:
cycloneye wrote:After many runs between the two top models ECMWF going west of Florida Penninsula and GFS tracking close to the east of Florida Penninsula, GFS was the one that in the end was right.


Check out the report from WFLA in Tampa. Maybe they were both right.

http://www2.tbo.com/weather/2011/oct/09/sunday-night-tampa-bay-forecast-1091-61550-vi-24467/
thats what I have been saying for days and the cmc showed it too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:47 pm

stormchazer wrote:
cycloneye wrote:After many runs between the two top models ECMWF going west of Florida Penninsula and GFS tracking close to the east of Florida Penninsula, GFS was the one that in the end was right.


Check out the report from WFLA in Tampa. Maybe they were both right.

http://www2.tbo.com/weather/2011/oct/09/sunday-night-tampa-bay-forecast-1091-61550-vi-24467/


GFS was right with the stronger low while ECMWF was right in it's runs about a weak low west of Fla Penninsula,so is a draw.
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#9 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:50 pm

The GFS runs of WED/THU/FRI are easily the big winners imo. No model run of any model ever showed a surface low nearly as tight as this except those GFS runs. Eight of those runs showed a lowest SLP of 1,000-1,005 mb. No other model, including the CDN, ever had anything this strong. The 1,000 mb run was the 18Z Wed 10/5 run, which had it landfall at Brunswick, GA. Unfortunately and amazingly, the GFS gave up on the tight low yesterday!!

These eight GFS runs were clearly better than the Euro ever was on any run. Euro has been dethroned lol.
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#10 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:08 pm

while we circle jerk over which computer model that none of us helped design is better, where is this thing(s?) going next?
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Re:

#11 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:12 pm

CronkPSU wrote:while we circle jerk over which computer model that none of us helped design is better, where is this thing(s?) going next?


I think they are suppose to merge somewhere in northern Florida, weaken and move north. At least, that was the last I heard.
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Re: Re:

#12 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Oct 09, 2011 9:19 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:while we circle jerk over which computer model that none of us helped design is better, where is this thing(s?) going next?


I think they are suppose to merge somewhere in northern Florida, weaken and move north. At least, that was the last I heard.


thanks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#13 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:11 pm

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#14 Postby Nimbus » Sun Oct 09, 2011 11:44 pm

Well the radar imagery clearly shows it moving inland WNW across Florida and weakening. Should emerge south of Cedar key later this morning.
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Re:

#15 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 1:43 am

LarryWx wrote:The GFS runs of WED/THU/FRI are easily the big winners imo. No model run of any model ever showed a surface low nearly as tight as this except those GFS runs. Eight of those runs showed a lowest SLP of 1,000-1,005 mb. No other model, including the CDN, ever had anything this strong. The 1,000 mb run was the 18Z Wed 10/5 run, which had it landfall at Brunswick, GA. Unfortunately and amazingly, the GFS gave up on the tight low yesterday!!

These eight GFS runs were clearly better than the Euro ever was on any run. Euro has been dethroned lol.


From 24 hours ago...

The UKM and NGP are the left or western-most models and given their respective biases/poor performance you would probably want to discount their solutions of a low making it that far west. The low-res ECM appears to have become very broad with a surface low/trough straddling Florida, although it's really tough to tell, looking at the coarse spatial (4MB SLP) and temporal (24-hour) resolution graphics on the ecmwf.int site. edit: Just had a look at the higher res SLP progs on the FSU MOE site, and the low is still consolidated, and centered pretty far west (reaches 86-87W), close to the solutions from the UKMET and the LOLGAPS, er, I mean NOGAPS. I still think these models are a few degrees too far to the west.

The GFS is the eastern-most, although it has trended leftward, hugging the Florida east coast and actually bringing it inland near Saint Augustine, and tracking it slowly northward across JAX.

The CMC brings the system NW from the Bahamas onshore near West Palm Beach-Stuart, across the peninsula to just offshore Saint Petersburg, then northward along the FL big bend, across the eastern FL panhandle, then into southern-southwest GA where it meanders as a secondary low forms offshore SC/GA and moves north and onshore near the SC/NC border.

The NAM and WRF-NMM are pretty similar, developing the low along the east-central Cuban coast, moving it NW passing just south and west of Key West, turning it northward, then NE and onshore between Tampa Bay and Sarasota, NE across central peninsula, and then NNE along or just offshore the NE FL coast.

I think what's causing the big differences is where the main surface low center tries to form (if a single coherent low does actually form). If it forms/consolidates closer to Andros island, the guidance wants to keep it east of Florida (with the exception of the CMC); If the low forms closer to the north coast of central Cuba the guidance wants to swing it NW near or through the lower keys and near or just offshore the west coast.
--------------------------------------------------------

The 09/00Z run of the GFS is looking pretty good right now...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#16 Postby underthwx » Mon Oct 10, 2011 12:55 pm

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