ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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Chacor
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#1 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:34 am

Image
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: To add word discussion
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#2 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:43 am

Interesting little feature. I think I see two vorticies trying to spin up, both look like they are experiencing westerly shear. CIMSS analysis shows about 20 knots of shear, and vorticity looks mediocre, so I guess it's possible we could see something try and spin up before it gets blasted by shear to the North. (This is just my opinion)
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#3 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 13, 2011 9:15 am

I don't see shear being that destructive as it gets picked up the incoming trough, if the surface vorticity picks up speed becoming parallel to the mid and upper level shear it may get better organized, but models disagree with me :)
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#4 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 13, 2011 9:17 am

UPDATED...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#5 Postby geomindspin » Thu Oct 13, 2011 9:27 am

Quick question - How are invests named? What does the 90, 94, 92, etc signify? I assume the L is for "Low". But the number confuses me.

Thanks!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#6 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 13, 2011 9:31 am

geomindspin wrote:Quick question - How are invests named? What does the 90, 94, 92, etc signify? I assume the L is for "Low". But the number confuses me.

Thanks!


L is the code letter for the Atlantic, E is for the EPAC, W is for the WPAC, and there are more for the other basins as well. The invests are numbered from 90 to 99 but it's just a convention, the numbers are given in order of appearence before invest 94L there was an invest 93L and there will be an invest 95L if something caughts the attention of the NHC in the next few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#7 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 13, 2011 9:32 am

geomindspin wrote:Quick question - How are invests named? What does the 90, 94, 92, etc signify? I assume the L is for "Low". But the number confuses me.

Thanks!


The numbering system is just to keep track of which disturbance is which. The numbers start at 90 and go through 99 then repeat, starting at 90 again. The last invest, 93L was the disturbance that moved into northern Florida last weekend. 94 was the next number (between 90 and 99) on the list.

Upper-level winds over 94L are in the 25-30 kt range out of the southwest. It does appear to have an LLC. Better organized than Jose was when it was named, probably (though I don't think Jose should have been named). Such lows are quite common in that region. No threat to land and no threat of becoming anything very strong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 13, 2011 10:47 am

MEDIUM CHANCE NOW

UPDATED...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#9 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:34 am

Starting to look a little better, with a LLC becoming better defined:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2011 12:39 pm

2 PM TWO:

A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 13, 2011 6:51 pm

8 PM TWO:

Down to 20%.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS LOW COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#12 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:26 pm

We're only a name away from a storm with my name...they should waste the R name on this one 8-)
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Re:

#13 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Oct 14, 2011 1:17 am

AdamFirst wrote:We're only a name away from a storm with my name...they should waste the R name on this one 8-)


1061 posts and I always thought your name was Adam.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2011 1:52 pm

And is over.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110141736
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby geomindspin » Fri Oct 14, 2011 2:40 pm

Thank you for answering my question! You guys are great about that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:02 pm

geomindspin wrote:Thank you for answering my question! You guys are great about that.


And if you're wondering why the Atlantic is L and not A, its because for some reason the Arabian Sea got A.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#17 Postby Rainband » Sat Oct 15, 2011 1:01 pm

was a waste of an invest IMO
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