ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Rainband]

Joe Bastardi tweeted an hour ago that 95L is getting better organized.

ok

[MGC]

Looks like 95L is getting a bit better organized....something to watch....MGC

[rainstorm]

i agree. we must watch

[wxman57]

Surprised there aren't more peeps on here now that it is an invest. Afterall, it's the only game in town.

Just because it's an invest doesn't mean it has a better chance of developing. Chances of it becoming a TD/TS are slim. Should be moving inland over the next day or two. Then the strong front arrives and it's sheared apart.

[caneman]

Moving inland over the Yucatan doesn't mean much. Does very little to inhibit, destroy and/or weaken a system.

[cycloneye]

Pressures are generally low in the Western Caribbean,especially north of Honduras and east of Belize.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

The biggest threat from this disturbance for Florida will be the very high amounts of rain that is expected,if this late afternoon HPC update is right.



Uploaded by Imageshack.us

[beoumont]

Latest visible: low levels spinning like a top; seems to be centered over SE Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO=Down to 10%, Low over Yucatan Peninsula

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS. DUE TO THE CENTER BEING OVER LAND...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models:

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0039 UTC SUN OCT 16 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20111016 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111016  0000   111016  1200   111017  0000   111017  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.1N  87.8W   19.4N  89.3W   19.5N  90.8W   19.4N  92.2W
BAMD    19.1N  87.8W   19.8N  89.3W   20.2N  91.1W   20.2N  92.6W
BAMM    19.1N  87.8W   19.5N  89.2W   19.6N  90.8W   19.5N  92.3W
LBAR    19.1N  87.8W   20.2N  89.1W   21.8N  90.5W   23.5N  91.3W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          30KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111018  0000   111019  0000   111020  0000   111021  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  93.2W   18.8N  94.6W   16.6N  98.2W   17.8N 102.2W
BAMD    20.1N  94.1W   19.4N  97.3W   18.8N 101.3W   20.0N 106.7W
BAMM    19.5N  93.7W   19.0N  96.4W   18.3N 100.2W   19.4N 105.2W
LBAR    25.4N  91.1W   31.8N  83.5W   41.5N  65.0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        49KTS          57KTS          56KTS          53KTS
DSHP        42KTS          40KTS          28KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.1N LONCUR =  87.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  18.2N LONM12 =  86.8W DIRM12 = 326DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  17.2N LONM24 =  86.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


Uploaded by imageshack.us

[beoumont]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND...SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL POSSIBLE.

[caneman]

Are none of the model doing anything with this? You certainly can't argue with how good and deep this is looking so far. Lots of deep grays and looking very symmetrical. This looks more like 50% chance of development and not 10%. Further, NHC states most is over land but the Sat. image would argue/show otherwise.

[Rainband]

wow what a wakeup call lol

[caneman]

Indeed. Not one to bash the NHC but think they need to pay a little more attention to this. This of course isn't surprising to those of us living in West Florida. Storms don't weaken near the Yuc, in fact this is a favored little area for breeding and strengthening. Lots of heat coming off land, flat, etc. Any model support yet?

[caneman]

WOWZA!!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[northjaxpro]

Checking in this morning and I have to say that 95L to me looks as healthy as I have seen it in its existence thus far. It appears that the broad Low is moving northwest across the NE portions of the Yucatan peninsula and it is looking as if the Low pressure will emerge into the extreme Southern GOM by early Monday.

95L is organizing surprisingly well and I agree with caneman in his post above in that I believe the probabilities of 95L becoming designated a TD or even a minimal TS should be a bit higher than what NHC has at this time. There will be a window of opportunity for 95L to briefly develop in the next 48 - 60 hours before shear increases in advance of the strong cold front which will sweep out the GOM by late Tuesday and picks up this feature.

[caneman]

Checking in this morning and I have to say that 95L to me looks as healthy as I have seen it in its existence thus far. It appears that the broad Low is moving northwest across the NE portions of the Yucatan peninsula and it is looking as if the Low pressure will emerge into the extreme Southern GOM by early Monday.

95L is organizing surprisingly well and I agree with caneman in his post above that in that I believe the probabilities of 95L becoming designated a TD or even a minimal TS should be a bit higher than what NHC has at this time. There will be a window of opportunity for 95L to briefly develop in the next 48 - 60 hours before shear increases in advance of the strong cold front which will sweep out the GOM by Late-Tuesday into Wednesday and pick up this feature.

Agree, didn't agree and still don't agree with NHC having lowered chances to 10% last night and stating most of the system was over land. You don't have to be a Met to see this isn't true by looking at Sat. pix. Wake up NHC storms are known to amp up pretty quick in this area, this time of year. Not saying it will be a monster but a T.S.doesn't look out of the question. This time of year is most threatening to west Florida.

[Kingarabian]

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO...IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND...SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...
BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

[caneman]

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO...IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND...SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...
BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

Pressure are darn near TD and or TS, now winds to support a T.S., If it walks like a duck, acts like a duck, looks like a duck...... Why no recon. Recon should be out there today. If this does amp up we are talking 2 to 3 days before affecting West Florida.
NHC dropped the ball last night lowering chances to 10%, they also stated most of it was over land when that clearly wasn't true. I was shocked because that clearly wasn't true. One wonders if the NHC didn't become complacent in what has turned out to be a lack luster season whereby many if not most systems never reached their potential from a model and NHC forecast.

[northjaxpro]

caneman, apparently the Low pressure area has not penetrated as far inland as NHC or the initial model runs had anticipated. The area of Low pressure to me is apparently riding just inland along the NE coast of the Yucatan and that has allowed the system to feed from the warm Caribbean waters and allow for more organization.

I think 95L may be moving more on a N-NW heading than NW at this time. If this is the case, then 95L may emerge off the Yucatan coast sooner than anticipated. 95L is developing rather nicely early this morning for sure. I would anticipate that now that NHC has come around and reversed their thought process and increased the probabilites of 95L becoming a designated named cyclone, an Air Force Recon mission will likely be scheduled within the next 24 hours.