ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Rainband]

caneman, apparently the Low pressure area has not penetrated as far inland as NHC or the initial model runs had anticipated. The area of Low pressure to me is apparently riding just inland along the NE coast of the Yucatan and that has allowed the system to feed from the warm Caribbean waters and allow for more organization.

I think 95L may be moving more on a N-NW heading than NW at thid time. If this is the case, then 95L may emerge off the Yucatan coast sooner than anticipated. 95L is developing rather nicely tearly this morning for sure. I would anticipate that now that NHC has come around and reversed their thought process and increased the probabilites of 95L becoming a designated named cyclone, an Air Force Recon mission will likely be scheduled within the next 24 hours.

I agree seems like it may also have more than one center of low pressure one at the mid levels and one at the surface and the one over water to the east is feeding the other closer to land. Interesting how it's getting the "look" quickly

[beoumont]

Curved band possibly forming around center position NHC/Stewart gave on the 5 am special TWO:

[Rainband]

Time to make more coffee

[jlauderdal]

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO...IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND...SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...
BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

Pressure are darn near TD and or TS, now winds to support a T.S., If it walks like a duck, acts like a duck, looks like a duck...... Why no recon. Recon should be out there today. If this does amp up we are talking 2 to 3 days before affecting West Florida.
NHC dropped the ball last night lowering chances to 10%, they also stated most of it was over land when that clearly wasn't true. I was shocked because that clearly wasn't true. One wonders if the NHC didn't become complacent in what has turned out to be a lack luster season whereby many if not most systems never reached their potential from a model and NHC forecast.

JB will be having another weekend rant, 2nd week in a row...that episode a week ago really had him fired up

[Rainband]

I have always backed the NHC but this isn't a situation where they need to be complacent. This area is known for it's History for what storms can do and how quickly they can do it............

[Rainband]

Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 16 Oct 2011 09:50:00 UTC
Winds: S (170°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (109°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.68 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.7 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 84.7 F

Pressure falling . Looks to me like a new center may be developing

[AdamFirst]

Center reforming over water?

Someone drag one of the pro mets out of bed.

[northjaxpro]

Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 16 Oct 2011 09:50:00 UTC
Winds: S (170°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (109°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.68 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.7 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 84.7 F

Pressure falling . Looks to me like a new center may be developing

That is certainly a possibility. There may be a more pronounced Low pressure area re-forming near Cozumel or just off the NE coast of the Yucatan. I am becoming more inclined to think that 95L is moving more N/NW now and will enter into the Southern GOM by about early Sunday evening.

[Rainband]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I think that watches and warnings will be up today. I think this is already a TS and will become a Hurricane. This is my opinion and not backed by anything other than that

[SouthDadeFish]

95L has improved greatly in organization, and I also think a center reformation has taken place over water:



Shear is low over the area with an anticyclone situated over the top of 95L, or may be slightly displaced to the south according to CIMSS. If the center has truly reformed over water we could be looking at our next tropical storm very shortly.

[Vortex]

looking much better this morning, waiting on first vis. IMO, Well likely see a TD/TS before it shears out to the NE Tuesday night. Regardless, flooding rains likely for portions of southern FL....

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I think that watches and warnings will be up today. I think this is already a TS and will become a Hurricane. This is my opinion and not backed by anything other than that

Hi Johnnathan. I had to put the S2K disclaimer.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO= Up to 50%

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[northjaxpro]

looking much better this morning, waiting on first vis. IMO, Well likely see a TD/TS before it shears out to the NE Tuesday night. Regardless, flooding rains likely for portions of southern FL....

Yeah, South Florida in all likelihood will be in for a real good soaker as this developing cyclone will get ejected and sheared out right on top of that part of the peninsula by Tuesday with the approach of the strong upper level trough. HPC 0Z precip run last night called for areas in the Keys and extreme South FL to get upwards to an additional 8 inches of rain in the next 48 hours.

[NDG]

I have to admit that I am shocked this morning in a way how well this looks this morning, before I went to bed all indications were that the COC was moving inland near Chetumal just north of Belize but this morning all indications is that it is still offshore, just south or SSE of Cozumel. Is as if it moved almost due N or it reformed closer to the deep convection offshore.
Interesting.

[caneman]

Please remember folks that many ENE or NE moving storms in the Gulf don't have that much time to weaken before smacking W.Florida. This has happened many times. They key will be how strong it gets before getting picked up. I wouldn't expect much weakening before hitting W. Florida if it is fully developed because of how close it will be to land.

[northjaxpro]

I have to admit that I am shocked this morning in a way how well this looks this morning, before I went to bed all indications were that the COC was moving inland near Chetumal just north of Belize but this morning all indications is that it is still offshore, just south or SSE of Cozumel. Is as if it moved almost due N or it reformed closer to the deep convection offshore.
Interesting.

I think it was more of the latter NDG. I think the Low re-formed closer to the deep convection near the NE Yucatan coast during the overnight/pre-dawn hours of this morning. 95L continues to look pretty good in organization and if the current trend continues, I would not be surprised to see NHC upgrade this to a TD or even a minimum TS within the next 12-24 hours. Tropical storm wind gusts already have been reported in and around the Yucatan Channel.

There may also be enough of a window of opportunity for this system to strengthen into a moderate/strong T.S. ( 50-60mph) before shear increases by Tuesday in advance of the strong upper level trough. It will be interesting to see how much this system can spin up and intensify before being picked up by the trough in the next 48 hours or so.

[NDG]

Here's that ship reported that the NHC mentioned about the tropical force winds being reported in the Yucatan Channel.

Code: Select all

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST  WVHT   DPD   APD MWD   PRES  PTDY  ATMP  WTMP  DEWP   VIS  TCC  TIDE  S1HT  S1PD  S1DIR  S2HT  S2PD  S2DIR   Ice   Sea      SwH      SwP     SwD     WWH    WWP    WWD      STEEPNESS
           (GMT)                 nm  °T   °T   kts   kts    ft   sec   sec  °T     in    in    °F    °F    °F   nmi  8th    ft    ft   sec     °T    ft   sec     °T   Acc   Ice       ft      sec              ft    sec     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP     S 1000  22.20  -85.10   88  35   90  [b]36.9[/b]     -   6.6   4.0     -   -  29.83 +0.00     -  78.8     -    11    8     -   6.6   3.0      -   6.6   3.0 

[wzrgirl1]

Holy mackeral from 10 percent to 50 percent overnight. I have never seen that large of a jump in such a short period of time. Hopefully she (possible future Rina) will be sheared apart before it begins to effect South Florida in three days. Will hit Wal Mart for some supplies today just in case.

[jlauderdal]

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO...IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND...SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...
BELIZE...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

Pressure are darn near TD and or TS, now winds to support a T.S., If it walks like a duck, acts like a duck, looks like a duck...... Why no recon. Recon should be out there today. If this does amp up we are talking 2 to 3 days before affecting West Florida.
NHC dropped the ball last night lowering chances to 10%, they also stated most of it was over land when that clearly wasn't true. I was shocked because that clearly wasn't true. One wonders if the NHC didn't become complacent in what has turned out to be a lack luster season whereby many if not most systems never reached their potential from a model and NHC forecast.

JB will be having another weekend rant, 2nd week in a row...that episode a week ago really had him fired up

BigJoeBastardi2 mins
Left oct 15,1954, middle Oct 19 this year, right Oct 15, 1955. Pattern: cold pdo/warm amo, la nina http://t.co/obWRcUbr

BigJoeBastardi8 mins
TPC already to moderate risk. System will become part of major east coast mid week storm, much like mid Oct 1955,1954 troughs

BigJoeBastardi8 mins
On a more serious note.. Florida and southeast US, I wasnt monkeying around about the TS threat: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg