ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[MGC]

95L is way more organized than yesterday. Looks like ya'll in Florida are in for more rain and perhaps a tropical system of some type.....MGC

[boca]

Looking at those spaghetti models it looks like a Wilma type path.I do agree MGC it looks alot better today than yesterday and to be honest it looks like a depression already.

[cycloneye]

I have a feeling that NHC will have recon going to this as the TCPOD has not been updated.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[blp]

Circulation is better defined today. Looking at the image below it appears that the low may be slightly offshore if not right on the coast.

http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/2944/wmbas76.png

Not to dampen what you said ,but to tell the real deal of the graphic,that pass was made last night at 10:34 PM EDT. But I agree about the low better defined.

Thanks, I get mixed up reading the times on those graphics.

[jinftl]

Models show the typical October track for a system in this region.




Intensity forecast will be trickier than the track forecast...let's watch the trend of future runs, but it seems like this system has a good shot of making it to tropical storm status at some point.

[cycloneye]

I have a feeling that NHC will have recon going to this as the TCPOD has not been updated.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

Well,they will go!! First mission is on Monday afternoon.

[cycloneye]

First mission will be on Monday afternoon.

NOUS42 KNHC 161530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 16 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-138

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA OFF YUCATAN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 17/1530Z
D. 21.0N 86.0W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX SYSTEM AT 18/1800Z IF IT
DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT NEAR 22.0N AND 87.0W.

[psyclone]

things have gotten alot more spicy compared to yesterday. this thing looks good. fits well with climo too. with such intense convection stretching from the isle of youth all the way to the eastern yucatan, i think a center reformation near the yucatan channel is likely. and another boatload of rain is likely over portions of florida in the "dry" season. after that a fall blast is headed for the peninsula so lots of interesting, changeable weather is in store for us over the next few days.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

What are potential analog storms for this one?

[SFLcane]

What are potential analog storms for this one?

First analog that comes to mind is 05 Wilma.. Certainly not expecting anything like that intensity wise but overall general track with front scooping system and turning NE towards Florida.

[NDG]

NNE wind officially reported now at Cozumel along with bout 40056 now reporting SSW winds keeps supporting my thinking of COC off the coast of Cozumel.

[jinftl]

Dr. Jeff Masters blog this morning:

"A large low pressure system centered over the eastern Yucatan peninsula, near Mexico's Cozumel Island (Invest 95L), is bringing heavy rains to Western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central and Western Cuba since October 9, according to radar rainfall estimates from the Key West Radar. Heavy rains have also affected portions of the Florida Keys; a personal weather station on Plantation Key recorded 2.28" of rain so far this weekend. Satellite loops show that 95L does not have a well-formed surface circulation, but the storm does have a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in intensity and areal coverage. Surface observations in the Western Caribbean reveal that 95L has a broad counter-clockwise circulation. A ship in the Yucatan Channel recorded sustained winds of 44 mph this morning, and another ship measured sustained winds of 39 mph about 30 miles southwest of Key West, but no land stations are reporting winds over 30 mph. Water temperatures over the regions are near 29°C, which is plenty warm to support a tropical storm.


Wind shear over 95L is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range over the next three days. This should allow 95L a decent chance to develop into a tropical depression, once it pulls away from the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. NHC is giving the system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and has scheduled a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the system on Monday afternoon. I'd put the odds of development higher, at 70%. All of the models are showing only weak development of 95L. The storm is currently moving northwest, but should turn north and then northeast by Tuesday, as it gets sucked into an approaching trough of low pressure. This trough should pull 95L into the west coast of Florida on Tuesday, and the southwest portion of Florida could receive up to 6 inches of rain from 95L. Once 95L meets up with the trough, wind shear will rise sharply, and it is unlikely 95L will be able to grow any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm before landfall occurs along the west coast of Florida. It is more likely that 95L will have top winds of 35 - 45 mph at landfall on Tuesday."

[Florida1118]

Okay, now Im interested. 50% and models look to show a FL landfall. Hmmm...will have to watch for sure

[cycloneye]

12z GFS 72 hour loop

[HurricaneWarning92]

Wilma intensified as it was moving ENE towards southwest Florida...

[ronjon]

12z GFS looks like it has it about right - 999 mb storm heading for the FL big bend - nature coast on Tuesday afternoon.

12z GFS 57 hrs

[ronjon]

NNE wind officially reported now at Cozumel along with bout 40056 now reporting SSW winds keeps supporting my thinking of COC off the coast of Cozumel.

Kudos NDG, looks like Dr Masters is echoing what you're saying about the location of the low pressure system.

[Vortex]

IMO, The stage is now set for a high flood threat across southern FL, with TS conditions and isolated tornados across S/Central FL Monday night/Tuesday. The remnants will then get entrained into developing mid-Atlantic storm mid week. Stay tuned...Very active week ahead for portions of FL-East coast...

[psyclone]

Jeff Masters analysis sounds very reasonable. this is the kind of storm i would wishcast to my neighborhood. Not too strong but some fun weather and pleasant temps in the wake of the system ensures you won't roast should you lose power. Bring it on. (although my hunch is that the best action will ultimately be to my south).

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Follow us on
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[CrazyC83]

I think that even if a mid to high tropical storm, it could be more dangerous than such an intensity would suggest as it would be such a huge, sprawling system...