ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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#61 Postby Vortex » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:24 am

Intense convection firing this moring just SSE of Cozumel...pressures and winds would support TD if not TS status. However, at this hour still broad without a well defined center per obs/ship reports. Expect by this evening a more pronounced surface circulation with the sustained convection ongoing now and favorable upper-air environment. Probablly an upgrade overnight..
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#62 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:24 am

Cancun radar loop, looks to me that the COC is near Cozumel just to the SSE.

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#63 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:29 am

NDG wrote:Cancun radar loop, looks to me that the COC is near Cozumel just to the SSE.

Image



Yep! I would estimate the Low center just south of Cozumel. Literally, the Low center will be moving over Cozumel shortly. The Low should be fully emerging into the extreme Southern GOM by tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#64 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:32 am

cycloneye wrote:
Rainband wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I think that watches and warnings will be up today. I think this is already a TS and will become a Hurricane. This is my opinion and not backed by anything other than that


Hi Johnnathan. I had to put the S2K disclaimer. :)

Thanks Luis :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#65 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:33 am

Watches and warnings where rainband???
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Re: Re:

#66 Postby Vortex » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:34 am

northjaxpro wrote:
NDG wrote:Cancun radar loop, looks to me that the COC is near Cozumel just to the SSE.

Image



Yep! I would estimate the Low center just south of Cozumel. Literally, the Low center will be moving over Cozumel shortly. The Low should be fully emerging into the extreme Southern GOM by tonight.



12:15 vis also supports location...over or just south of cozumel.


http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#67 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:37 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:Watches and warnings where rainband???
I would say the eastern part of cuba and the yucatan and depending on the speed and organization prolly the keys??? The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:43 am

12z Best Track

AL, 95, 2011101612, , BEST, 0, 194N, 879W, 30, 1004, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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#69 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:45 am

:uarrow: , hah, they still keep the COC just inland from the caost, lol. I definitely disagree with them.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#70 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:45 am

From Crown Weather this morning...http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Additionally, closer analysis using the CIMSS products reveals that this low pressure system may be redeveloping further east near 20 North Latitude, 85 West Longitude as low level convergence and vorticity is definitely increasing in this area. Buoy reports also indicate that pressures are falling in this general area and indeed a new low pressure system may be forming very near 19.8 North Latitude and 84.9 West Longitude. Should this indeed happen, then I think we will see a tropical storm develop in the far northwestern Caribbean just east of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula as early as late today or tonight.

Additionally:

Everyone across the southern half of Florida and the Florida Keys should keep very close tabs on the progress of this storm and do not be surprised to see this upgraded to a tropical storm with Tropical Storm Watches going up as early as Monday.
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#71 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:51 am

Is a big system.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#72 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:52 am

Most models shear this thing out or bury it in the yucatan as frontal boundary moves into the gulf next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#73 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:03 am

SFLcane wrote:From Crown Weather this morning...http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Additionally, closer analysis using the CIMSS products reveals that this low pressure system may be redeveloping further east near 20 North Latitude, 85 West Longitude as low level convergence and vorticity is definitely increasing in this area. Buoy reports also indicate that pressures are falling in this general area and indeed a new low pressure system may be forming very near 19.8 North Latitude and 84.9 West Longitude. Should this indeed happen, then I think we will see a tropical storm develop in the far northwestern Caribbean just east of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula as early as late today or tonight.

Additionally:

Everyone across the southern half of Florida and the Florida Keys should keep very close tabs on the progress of this storm and do not be surprised to see this upgraded to a tropical storm with Tropical Storm Watches going up as early as Monday.
right near the buoy I posted :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#74 Postby ronjon » Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:06 am

SFLcane wrote:Most models shear this thing out or bury it in the yucatan as frontal boundary moves into the gulf next week.


Yeah, that's what they said about Wilma too, LOL. Now, I'm certainly not comparing future Rina to that intensity, but this system will be traveling in the direction of the shear (uni-directional). Shear will be strongest the further north it travels in the GOM. No doubt it'll be sheared if reaches 28N and beyond, but even sheared systems can maintain TS strength which can cause torrential rain, winds, and possible tornadoes.

Not sure most models had the center so far north off the NE tip of the Yucatan. This new low center may change the models.
Last edited by ronjon on Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#75 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:08 am

When do you think is the soonest a plane will go in there, today or tomorrow?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#76 Postby caneman » Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:11 am

SFLcane wrote:Most models shear this thing out or bury it in the yucatan as frontal boundary moves into the gulf next week.


I wouldn't be paying any mind to models right now. Thus far, it hasn't acted according to them or the NHC. It's close enough to land now to where I'll just satellite watch. Wouldn't be surprised to see this get up to 60 or 70. Further, I keep seeing people talk about sheared out. Please remember folks, a system doesn't just get sheared out automatically. It will be close enough to Florida to where it won't have that much time to weaken, further it will be moving with the wind the flow. Living in West Florida for soooo many years we've seen many systems like this, this time of year to get a feel for how they behave.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#77 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:13 am

Rainband wrote:
SFLcane wrote:From Crown Weather this morning...http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Additionally, closer analysis using the CIMSS products reveals that this low pressure system may be redeveloping further east near 20 North Latitude, 85 West Longitude as low level convergence and vorticity is definitely increasing in this area. Buoy reports also indicate that pressures are falling in this general area and indeed a new low pressure system may be forming very near 19.8 North Latitude and 84.9 West Longitude. Should this indeed happen, then I think we will see a tropical storm develop in the far northwestern Caribbean just east of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula as early as late today or tonight.

Additionally:

Everyone across the southern half of Florida and the Florida Keys should keep very close tabs on the progress of this storm and do not be surprised to see this upgraded to a tropical storm with Tropical Storm Watches going up as early as Monday.
right near the buoy I posted :wink:


Pretty stiff straight south winds reported by the buoy, so the COC is definitely not right on top of the buoy, instead of near 85W I would say between 86-87W longitude is where I think the COC is.
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#78 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:16 am

Image
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#79 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:17 am

Winds reported in Cozumel have gone from a more easterly direction earlier this morning to a more northerly direction in the last few minutes, very good indication that the COC is still offshore just SE of them closer to the mid level circulation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#80 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:19 am

ronjon wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Most models shear this thing out or bury it in the yucatan as frontal boundary moves into the gulf next week.


Yeah, that's what they said about Wilma too, LOL. Now, I'm certainly not comparing future Rina to that intensity, but this system will be traveling in the direction of the shear (uni-directional). Shear will be strongest the further north it travels in the GOM. No doubt it'll be sheared if reaches 28N and beyond, but even sheared systems can maintain TS strength which can cause torrential rain, winds, and possible tornadoes.

Not sure most models had the center so far north off the NE tip of the Yucatan. This new low center may change the models.


TPC has the low still inland. The current thinking is not even remotely close to wilma. Both GFS/ECM entrain what ever is left of the low into the frontal boundary next week enhanceing rainfall over SFL.

Image
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