NIO: TWO-B - Tropical Cyclone

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NIO: TWO-B - Tropical Cyclone

#1 Postby ugaap » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:59 pm

TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 182230
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2N 89.7E TO 22.7N 91.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 181818Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.0N 90.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 192230Z.
//
9411101606 141N 932E 15
9411101612 141N 923E 15
9411101618 141N 914E 15
9411101700 141N 906E 15
9411101706 148N 898E 15
9411101712 157N 890E 15
9411101718 168N 884E 15
9411101800 177N 885E 15
9411101806 185N 891E 20
9411101812 193N 897E 20
9411101818 200N 904E 20
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Re: NIO - Bay Of Bengal 94B.INVEST

#2 Postby ugaap » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:33 pm

BOB 04/2011/01 Dated: 19.10. 2011

Time of issue: 0830 hours IST



Sub: Depression over northwest Bay of Bengal.



Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a depression has formed over north Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 19th October 2011 near latitude 20.00N and longitude 90.50E, about 350 km east-southeast of Digha, 300 km south-southwest of Chittagong (Bangladesh), 250 km southwest of Cox's Bazar (Bangladesh), 250 km west of Sittwe (Myanmar). The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move northeastwards and cross Bangladesh coast between Chittagong and Cox's Bazar by tonight or tomorrow, the 20th October, 2011 morning.



Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy falls over Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur during next 48 hrs.

Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph would prevail along and off West Bengal coast during next 24 hrs.

The next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 19th October, 2011
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#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Oct 19, 2011 4:29 am

TC Two-B from JTWC

WTIO31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/182221ZOCT2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 91.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 91.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.5N 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.6N 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 91.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INCLUDING A 190035Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE AND A 190352Z METOP-A IMAGE
DEPICT IMPROVED, TIGHTER CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. A 190352Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS NUMEROUS 30 KNOT WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, THE SYSTEM WAS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OF 35 KNOTS. TC 02B IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 19/12Z AND
WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 OVER LAND. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS LIMITED BUT SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 182230Z OCT 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTIO21 PGTW 182230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z.//
NNNN
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#4 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 19, 2011 8:11 am

This is either "Tropical Cyclone TWO-B", or "Depression BOB04/2011". You can't have it both ways with "Tropical Depression TWO".
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Re: NIO: TWO-B - Tropical Cyclone

#5 Postby P.K. » Wed Oct 19, 2011 2:19 pm

The Deep Depression has made landfall.


BOB 04/2011/05 Dated: 19.10. 2011

Time of issue: 2230 hours IST

Sub: Deep depression over northeast Bay of Bengal crossed Bangladesh coast

The deep depression over the northeast Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and crossed Bangladesh coast close to the south of Cox Bazar around 1830 hrs IST and It lay centred at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 19th October 2011 over Bangladesh near latitude 21.50N & longitude 92.50E. The system is likely to move northeastwards, weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)


Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)


Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

19-10-2011/2030


21.5/92.5


55-65 gusting to 75

19-10-2011/2330


21.5/92.5


50-60 gusting to 70

20-10-2011/0530


22.0/93.0


40-50 gusting to 60

20-10-2011/1130


23.0/94.5


20-30 gusting to 40

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy falls over Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur during next 24 hrs.

The next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of tomorrow, the 20th October, 2011
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Re:

#6 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Oct 20, 2011 5:20 pm

Chacor wrote:This is either "Tropical Cyclone TWO-B", or "Depression BOB04/2011". You can't have it both ways with "Tropical Depression TWO".


Hmmm.....

2B or not 2B?

That is the question.
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