ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:31 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110211231
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011102112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011102012, , BEST, 0, 150N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102018, , BEST, 0, 145N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102100, , BEST, 0, 142N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102106, , BEST, 0, 138N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 800W, 25, 1008, LO


Topic that was at Talking Tropics forum for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112099&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:34 am

Luis, saw 96L on the NRL and almost beat you to it! :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:35 am

You're quick Cycloneye, I was just about to start this thread :wink:

To be honest it is arguably a TD already in my opinion. A LLC seems to be establishing itself. Here is the first visible image of the day:

Image
Last edited by SouthDadeFish on Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:37 am

CPC thinks there is a high chance we see a tropical cyclone in the Western Carib this week:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby canes04 » Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:58 am

Do not have a good feeling on this one for some reason. My gut is telling me this will become a Hurricane and head North.
I hope I'm wrong.
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#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 21, 2011 8:13 am

Yeah the question is whether the front gets to it or if it stays below it for now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 21, 2011 8:23 am

If anyone wants to start a model thread...12z bams bring this area wsw into CA while the CMC and GFS keep it trapped for about week.
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ATL: RINA - Models

#8 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 21, 2011 8:36 am

WHXX01 KWBC 211234
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1234 UTC FRI OCT 21 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962011) 20111021 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
111021 1200 111022 0000 111022 1200 111023 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 80.0W 12.7N 81.0W 12.1N 81.5W 11.8N 81.7W
BAMD 13.5N 80.0W 12.9N 81.3W 12.2N 82.3W 11.9N 82.9W
BAMM 13.5N 80.0W 13.0N 81.4W 12.6N 82.4W 12.4N 82.7W
LBAR 13.5N 80.0W 13.2N 80.6W 13.3N 81.0W 14.1N 80.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
111023 1200 111024 1200 111025 1200 111026 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 81.6W 12.0N 81.5W 11.6N 81.8W 10.5N 81.3W
BAMD 11.8N 83.5W 11.7N 85.7W 10.9N 89.7W 10.4N 94.5W
BAMM 12.5N 82.8W 12.5N 83.0W 11.8N 84.2W 10.5N 86.1W
LBAR 15.4N 80.7W 19.5N 80.0W 23.7N 78.8W 27.1N 76.2W
SHIP 56KTS 68KTS 69KTS 67KTS
DSHP 56KTS 68KTS 49KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 80.0W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 80.0W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 80.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Image
First run, saved image.
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#9 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Fri Oct 21, 2011 8:57 am

Well if it strengthens quickly and becomes a strong system, then the chances of it heading north increases.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#10 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 21, 2011 8:59 am

O6Z GFS - Develops 96L, then moves it over E Cuba, Bahamas, and out to sea.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:09 am

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

URL:

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-81&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=5


You can change zoom, lat, lon, and numframes as desired.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:37 am

Recon will go on Saturday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 21 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-143

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 22/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 22/1530Z
D. 13.5N 80.0W
E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX SYSTEM AT 23/1800Z
NEAR 14.5N 80.5W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#13 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:40 am

00Z Euro carried over...Crosses SFL as 70 MPH TS in this run...

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:57 am

Image
TAFB has 96L moving NW in 72 hours and staying off the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:12 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Is organizing in a steady way and I will not be surprised if it becomes a TD by Sunday.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby Macrocane » Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:18 am

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IMO looks good right now and if the trend continues it could become a tropical depression by tomorrow.
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#17 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:23 am

Looking well organized...interesting days ahead if it doesnt head for CA.
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Re:

#18 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:31 am

Vortex wrote:Looking well organized...interesting days ahead if it doesnt head for CA.


If you take a look at most european ensembles they take this northward slowly. Interesting few days ahead.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:38 am

The SSD floater is up.

Image

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#20 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:58 am

Imo, this system may pose a significant threat to western Cuba, Fl Keys, and South Florida in about a week. Forecasted synoptics as well as Climatology suggest this storm/hurricane will eventually be drawn N into the NW carribean. Stay tuned...
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