ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Yep, it's all over; death by Nicaragua seems most likely; the season ended in early October.

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Here we go again with these obnoxious statements..whats over? Models have only been run a few times. TPC mentioned at 2pm that it will more then likely drift around before starting a drift towards the north in a few days.

[blp]

18z surface analysis by TAFB is more north and east of where our friend wxman57 places it. Which one is right as it will be important where the low is to know what the future will be on intensity as the models are showing.

[img]http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/2008/carlatest.gif

The key there is they show low as stationary. I think we have been seeing mid level action today and that is why it appears to be moving over CA.

[MWatkins]

Remember, the global models, all of them, are agreeing on a surface low developing in a couple of days that turns into a tropical cyclone down there.

So while there may be a feature "appearing" to move westward in visible satellite imagery today, there is no suggestion that this particular feature is the only possible way a low can develop down there.

We see it ALL the time. A feature develops...drifts close to land and then as things come together, redevelopment occurs out over water, especially when the steering pattern is weak like this is forecast to be.

Looking at any feature right now and speculating on that "being the center" and making a synoptic forecast off of that is 1970's meteorology at best (equal to wobble watching with a developed storm). Plus TAFB is certainly doing a full surface pressure analysis and locating the low off of that based on buoy, ship reports and satellite information not just a 4KM visible image.

In these cases, I trust the people who do this all day every day to do the analysis, and look to the predictive guidance (especially when there is such a strong consensus).

Just my opinion...

MW

[SFLcane]

18z intensity models..

[Evil Jeremy]

Again, you normally don't see consensus that close on an invest. Even some classified cyclones don't even have that close of a consensus.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,case closed on that person.Lets move on.

[SFLcane]

Bryan Norcross facebook...

System in the western Caribbean bears watching for peninsula Florida...especially Ft. Myers and south. There is a short window next mid-late week which would allow it to come north in tact. Odds favor AT LEAST another round of nasty wet weather beginning in the Keys and moving north mid-week... with the possibility of a stronger storm in the Thu-Fri time frame. The upper winds become increasingly unfavorable farther north, but at this point they appear marginally favorable enough to support at least a tropical storm in the southern Gulf, depending on the timing of the system's move north versus the approach of the next dip in the jet stream. Stay tuned!

[AdamFirst]

At least another rain event, huh?

We're really loading up the rain...technically the dry season is now starting but the tropics could give us another triple whammy.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS has a formidable hurricane heading northward.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS rolling and at 102 quite agressive. Models today to include GFDL/HWRF are increasinly agressive and depending on the model develop a powerful hurricane over the NW carribean. This makes sense as the upper level environment will continue to improve the next few days and there is very high oceanic heat content just south of western cuba. This centainly has the making of a potentially pwerful storm.

[cycloneye]

Remember, the global models, all of them, are agreeing on a surface low developing in a couple of days that turns into a tropical cyclone down there.

So while there may be a feature "appearing" to move westward in visible satellite imagery today, there is no suggestion that this particular feature is the only possible way a low can develop down there.

We see it ALL the time. A feature develops...drifts close to land and then as things come together, redevelopment occurs out over water, especially when the steering pattern is weak like this is forecast to be.

Looking at any feature right now and speculating on that "being the center" and making a synoptic forecast off of that is 1970's meteorology at best (equal to wobble watching with a developed storm). Plus TAFB is certainly doing a full surface pressure analysis and locating the low off of that based on buoy, ship reports and satellite information not just a 4KM visible image.

In these cases, I trust the people who do this all day every day to do the analysis, and look to the predictive guidance (especially when there is such a strong consensus).

Just my opinion...

MW

As always Mike,a good synopsis of what is going on and what to expect.

[SFLcane]

Continues to intensify...

[AdamFirst]

18z GFS 168hr the storm is shunted to the southwest over Cuba and weakening...a bit of a curveball run here

[Vortex]

18z GFS 168hr the storm is shunted to the southwest over Cuba and weakening...a bit of a curveball run here

I can see the GFS reasoning but I think in all liklihood if we have a decent size hurricane near western Cuba it will make the full connection. Would likely continue across the straits, keys, and south florida.

[AdamFirst]

18z GFS 168hr the storm is shunted to the southwest over Cuba and weakening...a bit of a curveball run here

I can see the GFS reasoning but I think in all liklihood if we have a decent size hurricane near western Cuba it will make the full connection. Would likely continue across the straits, keys, and south florida.

It doesn't end there...it ends up heading south back into the Caribbean while strengthening

[SFLcane]

Rakes cuba and then gets yanked out of the caribbean and just misses sfl.

[CrazyC83]

Looks a lot like Michelle or Paloma...bombing over the Caribbean then sheared near Cuba and becoming extratropical...it might be extratropical by the time it gets to Florida if it does so...

[Vortex]

Remember, the global models, all of them, are agreeing on a surface low developing in a couple of days that turns into a tropical cyclone down there.

So while there may be a feature "appearing" to move westward in visible satellite imagery today, there is no suggestion that this particular feature is the only possible way a low can develop down there.

We see it ALL the time. A feature develops...drifts close to land and then as things come together, redevelopment occurs out over water, especially when the steering pattern is weak like this is forecast to be.

Looking at any feature right now and speculating on that "being the center" and making a synoptic forecast off of that is 1970's meteorology at best (equal to wobble watching with a developed storm). Plus TAFB is certainly doing a full surface pressure analysis and locating the low off of that based on buoy, ship reports and satellite information not just a 4KM visible image.

In these cases, I trust the people who do this all day every day to do the analysis, and look to the predictive guidance (especially when there is such a strong consensus).

Just my opinion...

MW

As always Mike,a good synopsis of what is going on and what to expect.

Mike, just too add to what Luis said and sure hope to see you around for this event.

[Sanibel]

Clear spin down there NE of Costa Rica.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Lake Okeechobee needs the rain. It is still about 2 feet below where it should be.