ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

waiting on the 12Z ECM, last nights run looked very reasonable.

[HurrMark]

Given the trends of recent years (Wilma aside, which did not have a strong front approaching until it was far enough to the north), I am leaning to this sliding south of Florida...similar to Michelle or Paloma. Not saying there is no threat, but the pattern seems to favor a more easterly track. That is assuming it gets as strong as it does...I would not be surprised to see a significant hurricane out of this (my opinion only).

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi is calling for a FL hurricane next week. By the way, he acknowledged his busted forecast for 95L.

[blp]

12z Euro thru 96hrs much stronger. Already a hurricane.

[Vortex]

Joe Bastardi is calling for a FL hurricane next week. By the way, he acknowledged his busted forecast for 95L.

For a change, I actually wholeheartedly agree with him.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z Euro at day 5 is even farther west:

[xironman]

Probably needs to finish moistening up that air on the east side, once that is done it should be set to go.



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[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 96, 2011102118, , BEST, 0, 130N, 805W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[SFLcane]

12Z Euro has a 96L splitting the gap between Cancun and W. Cuba...(Trof digging)

[SFLcane]

Hits western florida similar to wilma track wise. Looks like a minimal hurricane

[SouthDadeFish]

Euro has landfall on Tampa is seven days:

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 211829
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC FRI OCT 21 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962011) 20111021 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111021  1800   111022  0600   111022  1800   111023  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  80.5W   12.3N  81.3W   11.9N  81.7W   11.8N  81.7W
BAMD    13.0N  80.5W   12.5N  81.6W   12.1N  82.3W   11.9N  82.8W
BAMM    13.0N  80.5W   12.7N  81.7W   12.5N  82.3W   12.5N  82.5W
LBAR    13.0N  80.5W   12.6N  80.9W   12.9N  81.1W   13.7N  81.0W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          51KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111023  1800   111024  1800   111025  1800   111026  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.9N  81.7W   11.8N  81.7W   11.1N  82.2W   10.2N  82.7W
BAMD    12.1N  83.5W   12.1N  85.7W   11.4N  89.1W   11.2N  92.8W
BAMM    12.7N  82.6W   12.9N  82.9W   12.4N  83.9W   11.6N  85.1W
LBAR    15.2N  80.9W   19.3N  80.5W   23.9N  79.7W   27.8N  77.2W
SHIP        61KTS          76KTS          79KTS          75KTS
DSHP        61KTS          76KTS          79KTS          75KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.0N LONCUR =  80.5W DIRCUR = 200DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  14.0N LONM12 =  80.0W DIRM12 = 196DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  14.5N LONM24 =  80.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[SFLcane]

Euro has landfall on Tampa is seven days:

http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/7757 ... 0mbslp.gif

Futher south then tampa.

[xironman]

The Euro is rapidly weakening the system as it approaches FL, there is 40kt shear just north of it.

[caneseddy]

The Euro is rapidly weakening the system as it approaches FL, there is 40kt shear just north of it.

WXMAN57was alluding that earlier about strong shear from the cold front that will impact this system...the question is how strong does it get and how far north it goes..if it goes past 26N-27N it will get blasted by the shear coming down and rapidly weaken which seems to be what the Euro is suggesting. However, if it stays just south of there the shear may not be as strong

Just my opinion of course

[caneseddy]

Euro has landfall on Tampa is seven days:

http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/7757 ... 0mbslp.gif

Futher south then tampa.

Looks like between Sarasota and Fort Myers

[xironman]

At 168hrs, it may move a bit.

[Vortex]

NWS Miami takes notice this afternoon


IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN SOME OF THE
COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN
THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY MOVE NORTHWARD
BY MID-WEEK. ITS OBVIOUSLY TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHAT IF ANY EFFECTS
THIS MAY HAVE ON THE REGION...AND IF ANY IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
NEXT WEEK SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYNOPTIC
FEATURE.

[wxman57]

I don't see anything up near 13N/80.5W as per 18Z best track location. Looks like all the convection and at least a mid-level rotation is near 11.5N/82W. Seems to be moving westward.

[Vortex]

Likely will become a TD or TS tomorrow then should really get going later Sunday as it parallels than passes NE of the Honduran coast.