ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve H.]

Very strange Euro run. Has the W. Caribbean low 1010mb at 144, then jacks it up until it is on or near the FL east coast at 168, then by 192 its off the map! Though accelerating to the north at 168. I get the feeling this will show something different at 12Z

[DESTRUCTION5]

O6Z GFS - Develops 96L, then moves it over E Cuba, Bahamas, and out to sea.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

12z Rolling...

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a powerful hurricane in NW Caribbean at 144 hours. Also develops the area that is now SE of the Windwards,in Central Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS brings 96L NW to the western tip of Cuba then shoots it ENE across Cuba then out to sea. Wow, what a sharp E turn.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[blp]

The SSD floater is up.

[img]http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/2746/vislhx.jpg

Uploaded by imageshack.us

Looking at the floater it looks to be drifting closer to CA. Right now that is the main thing that can stop it now. Most of the models now keep it offshore now, so I think that motion is only for a short time. Let's see if that happens.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFS brings 96L NW to the western tip of Cuba then shoots it ENE across Cuba then out to sea. Wow, what a sharp E turn.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

Its depicting a POWERFUL cold front...Lets see if Euro agrees...

[cycloneye]

This afternoon's discussion of 96L by Dr Jeff Masters:

A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is beginning to show signs of organization. Some rotation is apparent, and the upper-level cirrus clouds streaming away from the center indicate that 96L is establishing an upper-level outflow channel to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited at present, because a large region of dry air to the east of 96L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. An ASCAT pass at 11:05 am EDT showed no signs of a surface circulation, with surface winds in the 25 - 30 mph range. Surface pressures are slowly falling at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Monday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow some modest development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east. The models are quite enthusiastic about developing 96L into a tropical depression, and our top four reliable models for forecasting genesis--the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS--have all been predicting formation of a tropical depression by Monday in one or more of their runs over the past day. 96L is in an area of weak steering currents, and will move little over the next three days. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The 12Z run of the GFS model and 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models predict 96L will develop into a tropical storm that hits Western Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday, and potentially affecting the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Bahamas as well. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model, which has 96L moving ashore on Tuesday over Nicaragua as a weak system. NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L Saturday afternoon.

[Blown Away]

13.5N/80W is a prime October start point for a SFL Hurricane attack!

[TBCaneFreak]

[http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/9189/96lq.jpg

13.5N/80W is a prime October start point for a SFL Hurricane attack!

It apears to be a Florida Peninsula start point...4 landfalls in West Central FL...2 in SFl, but its a SFl problem I guess...

[cycloneye]

I can see NHC upping the % to 50% at 2 PM TWO based on sattelite appeareance.

[Blown Away]

[http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/9189/96lq.jpg

13.5N/80W is a prime October start point for a SFL Hurricane attack!

It apears to be a Florida Peninsula start point...4 landfalls in West Central FL...2 in SFl, but its a SFl problem I guess...

Lol, I should have said Fl peninsula, just easier to say SFL.

Agree w/ 50% cycloneye, to much convection and model support not to be at least 50% at 2pm.

[Vortex]

Overall appearance continues to improve and its quite possible this will become a TS by Monday. Furthermore, I expect a stronger solution which should allow the system to begin to pull North on Tuesday and approach western Cuba Wednesday possibly as a Hurricane. Folks in the FL Keys and South FL should begin to monitor the system closely...

[Bocadude85]

[http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/9189/96lq.jpg

13.5N/80W is a prime October start point for a SFL Hurricane attack!

It apears to be a Florida Peninsula start point...4 landfalls in West Central FL...2 in SFl, but its a SFl problem I guess...

I see 3 South Florida landfalls and 2 near misses.. but I agree with you that the location would imply a Florida penisula threat

[Sanibel]

Sheared to the SW. Should develop.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CENTERED
ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A SLOW
NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[SouthDadeFish]

Wow you don't see the NHC making jumps like that too often.... I think it is the right call though. High support from computer models. Note too the wording about a northward drift beginning on Sunday. They aren't expecting this to move into Central America.

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic=The other area of interest SE of Windwards has also bumped in %. See the 2 PM TWO for that at Talking Tropics.

[psyclone]

[http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/9189/96lq.jpg

13.5N/80W is a prime October start point for a SFL Hurricane attack!

It apears to be a Florida Peninsula start point...4 landfalls in West Central FL...2 in SFl, but its a SFl problem I guess...

With the current Novemberish parade of fronts and strong westerlies, i would bet if this is a threat to florida, it will probably be confined to south florida. but a complete miss of the state to the south and east is a good possibility. storms that form in this region are notorious slow movers and there are indications of a very strong front on the way so the models that show an abrupt turn to the east could be onto something and that turn could very well take place south of florida resulting in a cuba to bahamas track. we'll see. but at this point i feel safe (as usual) in central florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Vortex]

This should be a classic looking October storm/hurricane over the NW carribean...

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFDL and HWRF both bomb out 96L while bringing it into the NW Carib.....