ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

Ok I have google earth now and I can post pics too

[Shewtinstar]

If Rina loops back into the Caribbean is there any chance she could regenerate or did she churn up enough cold water to keep her dying out?

[westwind]

So much for Rina possibly restrengthening, she looks worse than ever, probably not even a hurricane at the next advisory which is good news for the yucatan peninsular.

[Shuriken]

If Rina loops back into the Caribbean is there any chance she could regenerate or did she churn up enough cold water to keep her dying out?

She definitely has not churned up appreciable amounts of too-cold water, if any. Shear would be the primary inhibitor of regeneration.

[NDG]

If Rina loops back into the Caribbean is there any chance she could regenerate or did she churn up enough cold water to keep her dying out?

She definitely has not churned up appreciable amounts of too-cold water, if any. Shear would be the primary inhibitor of regeneration.

It would had been hard to upwell any cooler waters being such a small storm, the central & western Caribbean has the deepest warm waters of the western Atlantic Basin, even deepert than the estern tropical Pacific.

[NDG]

Rina definitely looks like she is barely a hurricane this morning if she is at all.
She either picked up some speed in the last few hours or her mid level vorticity started separating from her surface circulation.

[NDG]

Yes, Kudos again to the ECMWF prediction, the king of the models in 2011 in my opinion.

It's really tough to go against it and I put emphasis on it for my forecast for this system.

Yes, the ECMWF did great in forecasting Rina to start loosing strength as it neared the Yucatan P, but I do not think it has been the best over all compared to the last couple of years.
The model did horrible with Tropical Storm Lee, many times forecasting it to become a Cat 3 as it made landfall in LA, scaring the heck out of many European model followers in that state.
With Emily it was west bias at many times.
The biggest improved model in my opinion has been the GFS, maybe not as good as the ECMWF but very close, while the quality of the ECMWF declined some from the last couple of years.

[Florida1118]

Rina looks like Crap, but better for the Yucatan...Key West is now down to 6% for TS force winds...so it looks like again 2011 failed to live up to forecast, which is always better for people Could she regenerate if she dives down South like forecast?

[NDG]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
700 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...RINA BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 87.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[NDG]

I really doubt that Rina remains a Hurricane by looking at the Belize radar loop, her COC barely has any deep thunderstorms left.

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-loop

[wxman57]

It's only a hurricane right now because the NHC is calling it one. I'm sure that recon will find winds closer to 60-65 mph in the next few hours. Continued weakening is likely as it tracks northward today. I still don't think there will be much left of it by Saturday night or Sunday morning as it merges with the front near western Cuba.

[AdamFirst]

KING EURO wins again. That's what you get for doubting it.

[wxman57]

KING EURO wins again. That's what you get for doubting it.

Was just looking through my weekly outlook put together last Thursday. The Euro was the ONLY model that didn't have a developing storm in the western Caribbean by Monday of this week. It's done quite badly with the last few systems.

As for Rina, I take what I said back about it having maybe 60-65 mph winds now. Looking at recent satellite and surface obs around the center, I'd say closer to 50-55 mph at most, and only NE of the center. I have it dissipating within 48-60 hrs.

[Macrocane]

Was just looking through my weekly outlook put together last Thursday. The Euro was the ONLY model that didn't have a developing storm in the western Caribbean by Monday of this week. It's done quite badly with the last few systems.

Exactly, I don't understand why people keep saying the Euro did well with such big mistakes.

[wxman57]

Whoa! Visible satellite shows an exposed low-level swirl with a single area of squalls about 20-30 miles to its northeast. Rina is fading fast. Winds may actually be below TS strength in all by the NE quadrant now.

[Steve H.]

There is a huge blob of convection to the SE of Rina. Wonder if she'll absorb this moisture as it is moving NW towards her.

[wxman57]

There is a huge blob of convection to the SE of Rina. Wonder if she'll absorb this moisture as it is moving NW towards her.

That's the former invest 97L. Both it and Rina will merge with the front over the weekend.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 271304
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 11 20111027
125430 2106N 08605W 6974 03175 0094 +082 +082 113022 025 028 006 00
125500 2105N 08606W 6970 03179 0091 +087 +069 123024 024 025 000 00
125530 2103N 08607W 6971 03177 0092 +086 +065 121025 028 026 001 00
125600 2101N 08608W 6956 03193 0089 +087 +058 123026 029 024 000 00
125630 2059N 08610W 6966 03183 0092 +086 +056 120026 026 024 000 00
125700 2057N 08611W 6965 03182 0097 +081 +061 121026 027 025 000 00
125730 2056N 08612W 6972 03173 0099 +078 +063 118027 028 027 000 00
125800 2054N 08613W 6967 03181 0088 +082 +075 122027 030 026 006 00
125830 2052N 08614W 6972 03174 0087 +087 +068 117030 031 030 005 00
125900 2050N 08616W 6968 03180 0091 +086 +047 109028 029 029 004 00
125930 2048N 08617W 6971 03174 0090 +086 +053 111028 029 023 000 00
130000 2047N 08618W 6962 03186 0090 +086 +049 113029 030 024 000 00
130030 2045N 08619W 6961 03186 0090 +083 +066 119029 029 026 001 00
130100 2043N 08620W 6960 03186 0092 +079 +079 124029 030 026 001 00
130130 2041N 08621W 6962 03183 0087 +085 +060 125030 030 026 000 00
130200 2039N 08623W 6963 03182 0087 +085 +058 124029 030 026 000 00
130230 2038N 08624W 6964 03181 0088 +084 +058 124027 028 026 000 00
130300 2036N 08625W 6964 03180 0087 +084 +058 119027 028 026 000 00
130330 2034N 08626W 6963 03180 0088 +083 +061 117028 029 025 000 00
130400 2032N 08627W 6964 03180 0088 +082 +064 112030 032 025 001 00


000
URNT15 KWBC 271314
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 12 20111027
130430 2031N 08628W 6961 03180 0086 +083 +060 111032 032 023 000 00
130500 2029N 08629W 6962 03179 0080 +087 +060 110033 034 024 000 00
130530 2027N 08630W 6963 03178 0077 +089 +063 106034 034 025 001 00
130600 2025N 08631W 6963 03177 0070 +094 +058 106033 033 027 000 00
130630 2023N 08632W 6964 03174 0069 +093 +055 109033 034 027 000 00
130700 2021N 08633W 6965 03172 0067 +094 +052 110032 033 028 000 00
130730 2019N 08633W 6965 03172 0072 +090 +057 109030 031 028 001 00
130800 2017N 08634W 6965 03171 0068 +092 +058 112032 032 030 001 00
130830 2015N 08635W 6962 03172 0058 +099 +047 118034 035 032 002 00
130900 2013N 08636W 6966 03167 0056 +101 +045 115037 037 034 001 00
130930 2011N 08637W 6969 03161 0056 +099 +046 112037 038 034 003 00
131000 2009N 08638W 6968 03161 0056 +097 +044 110039 041 034 003 00
131030 2007N 08638W 6966 03160 0064 +088 +048 110042 044 031 006 00
131100 2005N 08639W 6960 03165 0062 +088 +053 114042 043 032 006 00
131130 2003N 08639W 6967 03159 0057 +093 +060 111038 038 032 006 00
131200 2001N 08640W 6967 03159 0046 +102 +065 114038 040 032 006 00
131230 1959N 08640W 6967 03163 0055 +095 +068 109036 037 033 005 00
131300 1957N 08641W 6953 03177 0047 +100 +074 109036 038 033 004 00
131330 1955N 08641W 6939 03195 0036 +109 +072 109032 033 035 006 00
131400 1953N 08642W 6966 03168 0050 +103 +077 106030 032 035 008 00

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 271324
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 13 20111027
131430 1951N 08642W 6990 03140 0055 +101 +084 118022 024 039 007 00
131500 1949N 08642W 6982 03149 0050 +104 +085 129019 021 040 006 00
131530 1947N 08643W 6969 03163 0049 +103 +084 125018 021 038 007 00
131600 1945N 08643W 6970 03162 0048 +102 +091 126022 024 036 006 00
131630 1944N 08644W 6963 03168 0037 +107 +096 132025 027 036 001 00
131700 1942N 08644W 6970 03157 0027 +115 +088 127025 027 035 002 00
131730 1940N 08645W 6952 03176 0028 +110 +093 116031 036 035 006 00
131800 1938N 08645W 6959 03167 0037 +101 +097 124034 036 037 003 00
131830 1936N 08646W 6951 03175 0026 +108 +091 124027 031 038 003 00
131900 1934N 08646W 6948 03175 0033 +102 +088 120030 031 035 001 00
131930 1932N 08647W 6948 03174 0031 +102 +096 114035 036 033 001 00
132000 1930N 08647W 6967 03152 0027 +105 +100 115034 035 034 000 00
132030 1928N 08648W 6999 03110 0013 +116 +104 124033 034 037 000 00
132100 1926N 08648W 7006 03099 0009 +116 +119 124035 037 040 000 00
132130 1924N 08649W 6983 03126 0008 +114 +116 116033 034 039 002 00
132200 1922N 08650W 6953 03161 0005 +114 +111 109035 036 043 000 00
132230 1920N 08651W 6958 03155 0002 +117 +103 111036 037 046 003 00
132300 1918N 08651W 6978 03125 9988 +125 +104 108037 038 048 006 00
132330 1916N 08652W 6937 03171 9963 +140 +094 100034 035 050 014 00
132400 1914N 08652W 6942 03158 9941 +153 +096 085033 037 055 020 00

[adam0983]

Hurricane Rina is dead Jim. Tell Spock to congraduate our Euro model friend. Captain Kirk over and out.