ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1561 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 8:47 am

Recon reported a 55kt SFMR wind just NE of the center, but FL winds were only 33 kts there. And, really, a 27 kt FL wind matched with a 62kt SFMR reading? I'm quite suspicious of those SFMR winds when they're 20-30+ kts greater than the FL wind. Plane is flying at about 10,000 ft. I think they can safely drop down to the surface now. Not much left of Rina.
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#1562 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 8:54 am

URNT15 KWBC 271334
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 14 20111027
132430 1912N 08653W 6991 03091 9910 +176 +088 059024 033 056 036 00
132500 1910N 08654W 6994 03081 9924 +154 +119 067027 033 062 023 00
132530 1908N 08654W 6957 03116 9918 +151 +121 036018 022 056 019 00
132600 1906N 08654W 6979 03087 9905 +162 +106 350023 025 /// /// 03
132630 1904N 08653W 6976 03093 9905 +163 +106 330019 023 /// /// 03
132700 1904N 08651W 6972 03093 9915 +153 +087 187007 011 027 003 00
132730 1904N 08648W 6961 03109 9923 +149 +080 201015 017 038 005 00
132800 1904N 08646W 6959 03117 9937 +140 +097 189023 025 045 003 00
132830 1904N 08644W 6949 03134 9942 +139 +097 185029 030 050 005 00
132900 1904N 08642W 6973 03110 9955 +128 +119 184044 050 051 004 00
132930 1904N 08639W 6968 03120 9969 +123 //// 186044 047 048 003 01
133000 1904N 08637W 6971 03124 9982 +118 //// 183045 049 047 001 01
133030 1904N 08635W 6967 03134 0006 +105 //// 176050 053 045 003 01
133100 1904N 08633W 6985 03116 0012 +106 +106 175049 050 045 004 00
133130 1904N 08631W 6974 03135 0012 +110 +103 176051 052 045 009 00
133200 1904N 08629W 6972 03137 0013 +109 +114 182052 054 045 012 00
133230 1904N 08626W 6942 03176 0019 +103 //// 178047 049 041 009 01
133300 1904N 08624W 6941 03180 0024 +102 //// 178046 048 039 005 01
133330 1904N 08622W 6978 03137 0032 +101 //// 177043 044 037 004 01
133400 1904N 08620W 6944 03182 0040 +094 //// 174044 045 035 003 01

Extrapolated pressure: 990
Max fl.level wind: 54 kt
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1563 Postby Frank2 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 8:58 am

Wow - it looks more like a weak TD at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
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#1564 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:03 am

SFMR readings are always high when precipitation rate is high also.
I guess some 45 kt would be reasonable, based on flight level winds and SFMR values outside rainbands.
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#1565 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:06 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 271344
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 15 20111027
133430 1904N 08618W 6961 03161 0042 +095 +100 176044 045 034 003 00
133500 1904N 08616W 6961 03161 0040 +098 //// 175043 043 035 003 01
133530 1904N 08614W 6969 03157 0044 +097 //// 171041 041 034 002 01
133600 1904N 08611W 6967 03161 0052 +094 +099 163039 040 034 002 00
133630 1904N 08609W 6954 03178 0056 +093 +086 159043 043 034 002 00
133700 1904N 08607W 6961 03170 0060 +092 +085 162042 043 034 000 00
133730 1904N 08605W 6981 03148 0064 +092 +081 163042 042 033 001 00
133800 1904N 08603W 6963 03171 0070 +087 +078 163043 043 031 000 00
133830 1904N 08601W 6957 03179 0070 +088 +081 161041 041 031 001 03
133900 1905N 08559W 6952 03186 0071 +088 +069 160041 041 /// /// 03
133930 1907N 08558W 6965 03171 0070 +091 +063 156043 043 030 000 00
134000 1909N 08559W 6959 03178 0073 +088 +065 152041 042 031 000 00
134030 1911N 08559W 6958 03179 0076 +085 +065 155042 042 031 000 00
134100 1914N 08559W 6969 03166 0077 +085 +062 152043 043 031 001 00
134130 1916N 08559W 6977 03158 0078 +086 +058 150043 043 031 001 00
134200 1918N 08559W 6972 03163 0071 +089 +067 150042 042 030 001 00
134230 1921N 08559W 6966 03171 0075 +087 +058 147042 043 028 000 00
134300 1923N 08559W 6952 03188 0078 +086 +049 145042 043 030 001 00
134330 1925N 08559W 6969 03169 0087 +084 +024 143042 043 031 001 00
134400 1927N 08601W 6960 03181 0086 +085 +011 139041 042 /// /// 03
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1566 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:14 am

A little burst of convection over the center in the past hour as the wind shear let up briefly. I think we'll see the center exposed again then possibly covered by convection a few times in the next 24 hours as wind shear fluctuates. But it's lights out for Rina on Saturday as the cold front arrives.
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#1567 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:16 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 271354
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 16 20111027
134430 1927N 08603W 6953 03188 0088 +081 +019 138042 042 030 003 00
134500 1927N 08605W 6963 03174 0088 +079 +030 135041 042 027 003 00
134530 1927N 08608W 6968 03168 0088 +079 +043 134042 042 030 002 00
134600 1927N 08610W 6970 03164 0083 +077 +075 134042 043 032 005 00
134630 1927N 08613W 6975 03156 0074 +082 +083 132045 045 031 005 00
134700 1927N 08615W 6967 03166 0074 +083 +079 134045 045 032 007 00
134730 1927N 08617W 6996 03130 0063 +093 +082 131042 043 036 009 00
134800 1927N 08620W 6984 03137 0033 +111 +086 136041 042 040 009 00
134830 1927N 08622W 6995 03120 0024 +113 +090 135040 044 041 009 00
134900 1927N 08625W 6948 03177 0032 +104 +093 129038 040 036 010 00
134930 1927N 08627W 6953 03171 0041 +095 +096 131042 044 037 007 00
135000 1927N 08630W 6972 03145 0033 +101 +095 134041 043 036 007 00
135030 1927N 08632W 6948 03175 0032 +102 +095 137039 040 037 007 00
135100 1927N 08635W 6949 03172 0031 +100 +098 137039 042 040 006 00
135130 1927N 08637W 6950 03172 0023 +107 +101 140042 044 039 004 00
135200 1927N 08640W 6951 03171 0029 +101 +103 133039 040 040 004 00
135230 1927N 08642W 6952 03167 0025 +102 +105 128040 041 040 003 00
135300 1927N 08645W 6962 03155 0021 +106 +108 130042 042 041 001 00
135330 1927N 08647W 6975 03139 0019 +108 +112 126040 041 042 001 00
135400 1927N 08650W 6957 03161 0017 +108 //// 122038 038 042 002 01
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#1568 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:26 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 271404
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 17 20111027
135430 1927N 08652W 6961 03155 0019 +107 //// 115038 040 043 002 01
135500 1927N 08655W 6991 03116 0014 +111 +113 111040 040 044 001 00
135530 1927N 08657W 6945 03174 0016 +109 +105 105036 039 044 001 00
135600 1927N 08659W 6952 03168 0018 +109 +103 099034 035 043 000 00
135630 1926N 08702W 6967 03148 0017 +111 +106 094033 034 041 003 03
135700 1925N 08703W 6971 03143 0011 +115 +097 083030 032 040 001 00
135730 1923N 08703W 6967 03145 0005 +118 +094 081029 029 044 001 00
135800 1921N 08703W 6963 03147 0002 +117 +104 080030 031 045 002 00
135830 1919N 08703W 6970 03138 9984 +131 +096 069026 028 045 002 00
135900 1916N 08703W 6973 03128 9968 +142 +085 037022 023 046 001 00
135930 1914N 08703W 6968 03133 9956 +150 +074 016024 026 049 001 00
140000 1912N 08703W 6978 03117 9946 +157 +064 359028 029 049 003 00
140030 1910N 08703W 6972 03122 9940 +165 +033 350034 035 051 000 00
140100 1907N 08703W 6973 03122 9943 +163 +039 351032 034 045 001 00
140130 1905N 08703W 6962 03138 9945 +161 +039 344037 038 033 001 00
140200 1903N 08702W 6953 03151 9948 +162 +029 326035 035 /// /// 03
140230 1902N 08700W 6981 03116 9942 +167 +027 318034 036 011 000 00
140300 1901N 08658W 6990 03103 9932 +177 +020 308033 035 /// /// 03
140330 1859N 08658W 6999 03095 9936 +176 +029 315029 031 002 000 03
140400 1857N 08658W 6978 03125 9944 +170 +029 305030 032 014 000 00


000
URNT12 KWBC 271415
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 27/1327Z
B. 19 DEG 4 MIN N
86 DEG 51 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3060 M
D. 62 KT
E. 341 DEG 6 NM
F. 109 DEG 38 KT
G. 359 DEG 15 NM
H. EXTRAP 989 MB
I. 16 C/3055 M
J. 17 C/3043 M
K. 10 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1218A RINA OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 55KT E QUAD 1330Z
EXTRAP 989MB FROM 10K FT
ELECTRIFIED CELL N OF CNTR
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#1569 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:37 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 271414
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 18 20111027
140430 1855N 08658W 6957 03152 9954 +163 +029 301029 030 025 000 00
140500 1853N 08658W 6948 03165 9962 +157 +033 294028 029 033 000 00
140530 1851N 08658W 6953 03163 9969 +154 +033 288028 030 037 001 00
140600 1848N 08658W 6949 03170 9976 +150 +034 286031 032 038 001 00
140630 1846N 08658W 6955 03165 9980 +149 +036 288031 032 038 000 00
140700 1844N 08657W 6960 03161 9985 +147 +038 289030 031 037 000 00
140730 1841N 08657W 6949 03176 9995 +139 +047 292027 029 038 001 00
140800 1839N 08657W 6953 03174 0007 +130 +066 295022 023 039 000 00
140830 1837N 08657W 6939 03193 0011 +128 +072 287021 022 038 000 00
140900 1835N 08657W 6941 03194 0015 +125 +083 274027 029 037 001 00
140930 1832N 08657W 6949 03185 0018 +124 +081 272029 030 037 001 00
141000 1830N 08657W 6949 03186 0021 +123 +081 273029 029 036 002 00
141030 1828N 08656W 6950 03187 0023 +125 +060 272028 029 035 001 00
141100 1826N 08656W 6949 03189 0020 +128 +058 269025 027 036 001 00
141130 1824N 08656W 6950 03189 0023 +126 +069 274025 025 034 002 00
141200 1821N 08656W 6951 03190 0027 +124 +073 276025 026 034 001 00
141230 1819N 08656W 6949 03194 0039 +112 +104 274026 028 031 004 00
141300 1817N 08656W 6951 03191 0043 +111 +083 271025 025 031 001 00
141330 1815N 08656W 6954 03188 0045 +111 +077 275026 026 029 001 00
141400 1813N 08656W 6951 03192 0049 +110 +069 276025 026 030 000 00
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1570 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:38 am

Frank2 wrote:Wow - it looks more like a weak TD at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg


Wow Rina looks pretty bad right now which is good news for the coast of the Yucatan.


Yes, the ECMWF did great in forecasting Rina to start loosing strength as it neared the Yucatan P, but I do not think it has been the best over all compared to the last couple of years.
The model did horrible with Tropical Storm Lee, many times forecasting it to become a Cat 3 as it made landfall in LA, scaring the heck out of many European model followers in that state.
With Emily it was west bias at many times.
The biggest improved model in my opinion has been the GFS, maybe not as good as the ECMWF but very close, while the quality of the ECMWF declined some from the last couple of years.


I admit I'm a Euro hugger but I have to handed to the GFS it seems that it did a lot better than recent years.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1571 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:41 am

60kts at 10am and 50kt winds in all quadrants??? Plane isn't even finding TS winds southwest of the center.
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#1572 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:44 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 271424
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 19 20111027
141430 1811N 08656W 6953 03191 0052 +109 +062 277025 026 028 000 00
141500 1809N 08656W 6952 03193 0059 +103 +067 275023 024 028 001 00
141530 1806N 08656W 6951 03195 0060 +103 +069 263022 023 028 000 00
141600 1804N 08656W 6954 03193 0059 +105 +069 262020 020 /// /// 03
141630 1803N 08654W 6953 03194 0058 +106 +070 261021 021 /// /// 03
141700 1804N 08652W 6956 03191 0059 +105 +075 251022 023 030 000 00
141730 1805N 08650W 6954 03193 0058 +105 +075 248022 023 030 001 00
141800 1806N 08648W 6954 03193 0058 +106 +074 247023 023 031 000 00
141830 1807N 08645W 6954 03193 0056 +109 +069 249024 024 031 000 00
141900 1808N 08643W 6955 03193 0053 +111 +066 250024 025 031 001 00
141930 1809N 08641W 6954 03193 0053 +111 +066 250025 026 031 001 00
142000 1810N 08639W 6955 03192 0052 +112 +065 249025 026 033 001 00
142030 1811N 08637W 6955 03193 0052 +111 +067 246025 026 031 001 00
142100 1812N 08635W 6954 03192 0058 +107 +065 240025 025 033 001 00
142130 1813N 08632W 6955 03193 0060 +105 +074 237024 024 031 001 00
142200 1814N 08630W 6955 03193 0058 +106 +075 232023 024 032 000 00
142230 1815N 08628W 6954 03194 0060 +105 +079 228023 023 031 001 00
142300 1816N 08626W 6954 03195 0064 +102 +080 221023 023 031 001 00
142330 1817N 08624W 6955 03195 0062 +105 +077 214024 024 031 001 00
142400 1818N 08622W 6957 03192 0058 +108 +073 217024 024 030 000 00
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1573 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:49 am

Rina is a dud. Climatology gets beaten. Anomalous year.

Record heat expected here today 88*. Overcast under Rina's outflow.


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Re: ATL: RINA - Models

#1574 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:55 am

GFDL was silly left this year. Whatever they did they wrecked it.
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#1575 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:56 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 271434
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 20 20111027
142430 1819N 08620W 6955 03194 0055 +111 +072 216025 025 032 000 00
142500 1820N 08617W 6956 03194 0055 +112 +064 211025 025 030 001 00
142530 1821N 08615W 6954 03196 0054 +113 +062 210025 025 027 003 03
142600 1823N 08614W 6955 03193 0055 +111 +065 207027 027 /// /// 03
142630 1825N 08616W 6959 03188 0055 +111 +066 204027 027 030 000 00
142700 1826N 08617W 6955 03192 0053 +111 +072 207025 025 029 000 00
142730 1828N 08619W 6955 03192 0054 +109 +082 220026 027 031 001 00
142800 1829N 08621W 6955 03190 0050 +110 +094 223028 028 031 002 00
142830 1830N 08622W 6957 03187 0045 +115 +073 226027 028 030 001 00
142900 1832N 08624W 6957 03185 0044 +114 +072 222029 030 029 000 00
142930 1833N 08625W 6958 03182 0043 +111 +087 216030 031 030 003 00
143000 1835N 08627W 6958 03183 0042 +110 +093 216032 032 033 002 00
143030 1836N 08628W 6955 03184 0033 +116 +094 225033 034 035 000 00
143100 1838N 08630W 6957 03180 0032 +117 +089 225035 035 036 001 00
143130 1839N 08632W 6957 03180 0031 +117 +087 230036 037 037 001 00
143200 1841N 08633W 6956 03179 0020 +124 +083 232035 037 037 001 00
143230 1843N 08634W 6959 03173 0015 +128 +075 229032 033 038 003 00
143300 1844N 08636W 6959 03171 0011 +127 +089 230033 034 038 003 00
143330 1846N 08637W 6956 03171 0000 +136 +067 241033 033 040 000 00
143400 1848N 08638W 6957 03170 9992 +142 +043 246035 036 041 003 00
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1576 Postby Jevo » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:01 am

Bout that time

Image
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#1577 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:09 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 271444
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 21 20111027
143430 1850N 08639W 6957 03165 9989 +142 +049 244036 037 042 002 00
143500 1852N 08640W 6959 03160 9974 +154 +035 245038 038 044 001 00
143530 1854N 08641W 6962 03154 9970 +155 +034 238038 039 045 000 00
143600 1856N 08642W 6959 03155 9963 +157 +041 242038 039 045 000 00
143630 1857N 08643W 6956 03156 9958 +160 +042 247038 039 046 002 00
143700 1859N 08644W 6956 03155 9952 +164 +034 246039 040 046 002 00
143730 1901N 08645W 6958 03148 9946 +162 +052 242039 041 048 001 00
143800 1903N 08646W 6955 03144 9936 +167 +031 240041 043 048 000 00
143830 1905N 08647W 6959 03132 9932 +162 +058 236041 043 045 002 00
143900 1907N 08648W 6959 03126 9921 +161 +081 230035 036 042 000 03
143930 1909N 08649W 6962 03112 9918 +156 +090 214016 026 037 001 00
144000 1910N 08651W 6961 03114 9906 +165 +093 082002 007 030 001 00
144030 1912N 08652W 6959 03118 9904 +168 +085 059010 012 /// /// 03
144100 1914N 08652W 6959 03120 9942 +134 +117 096024 026 043 014 00
144130 1916N 08652W 6973 03108 9956 +129 +119 109030 031 046 011 03
144200 1918N 08653W 6958 03132 9959 +128 +126 107032 034 052 013 00
144230 1920N 08653W 6938 03165 9975 +122 //// 115034 035 052 016 01
144300 1922N 08654W 6945 03164 9984 +121 //// 107037 042 053 014 01
144330 1925N 08654W 6951 03158 9994 +117 //// 112041 043 045 007 05
144400 1926N 08653W 6961 03149 0000 +114 //// 121043 044 045 007 01

Extrapolated pressure: 990
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#1578 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:16 am

000
URNT12 KWBC 271458
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 27/1440Z
B. 19 DEG 10 MIN N
86 DEG 51 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3066 M
D. 48 KT
E. 144 DEG 8 NM
F. 233 DEG 42 KT
G. 140 DEG 5 NM
H. EXTRAP 991 MB
I. 11 C/3060 M
J. 18 C/3058 M
K. 8 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1218A RINA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 55KT E QUAD 1330Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 51KT NE QUAD 1448Z
SFC CNTR SW OF FL CNTR 5NM
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1579 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:21 am

Image

This is one of the craziest tracks I have ever seen! :D
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1580 Postby latitude_20 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:24 am

I'm not sure I'm buying into that hairpin turn. Interested to know anyone's thoughts on it.
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