ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 15483
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1581 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:26 am

latitude_20 wrote:I'm not sure I'm buying into that hairpin turn. Interested to know anyone's thoughts on it.


She didn't beat the coming trough/front. Now she only has one way to go and that's south with that front as it sweeps through. It's The Great Gulf Wall, theme of 2011.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2392
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:

#1582 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:28 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 271454
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 22 20111027
144430 1928N 08652W 6966 03145 0002 +114 //// 127046 046 044 009 01
144500 1929N 08650W 6960 03152 0005 +113 //// 130045 047 046 010 01
144530 1931N 08649W 6943 03175 0015 +106 //// 128047 049 042 007 01
144600 1932N 08647W 6955 03162 0023 +102 //// 124044 047 043 006 01
144630 1933N 08646W 6963 03154 0028 +101 //// 125042 044 041 007 01
144700 1935N 08644W 6961 03159 0028 +102 +107 123043 045 043 010 00
144730 1936N 08643W 6957 03164 0033 +099 //// 128045 046 043 013 01
144800 1938N 08641W 6953 03168 0043 +092 //// 129047 049 038 007 01
144830 1939N 08640W 6965 03159 0049 +092 //// 130048 050 033 006 01
144900 1941N 08638W 6962 03164 0054 +091 //// 128043 044 030 005 01
144930 1942N 08637W 6979 03146 0058 +091 +096 129041 042 028 004 00
145000 1944N 08635W 6987 03139 0065 +087 +092 130040 041 028 002 00
145030 1945N 08634W 6949 03187 0060 +091 +090 129038 038 026 002 00
145100 1947N 08632W 6955 03182 0068 +088 +085 126040 042 026 008 00
145130 1948N 08631W 6966 03169 0071 +087 +083 132038 040 033 007 00
145200 1949N 08629W 6937 03203 0082 +077 +070 128043 044 /// /// 03
145230 1949N 08628W 6938 03204 0084 +076 +068 128041 041 028 004 00
145300 1948N 08626W 6945 03192 0077 +082 +066 129042 043 031 001 00
145330 1946N 08625W 6945 03192 0074 +083 +064 131048 049 031 001 00
145400 1945N 08623W 6973 03158 0071 +085 +075 132049 050 031 002 00
0 likes   

User avatar
latitude_20
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:46 am
Location: Tulum, Mexico
Contact:

Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1583 Postby latitude_20 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:29 am

Ntxw wrote:
latitude_20 wrote:I'm not sure I'm buying into that hairpin turn. Interested to know anyone's thoughts on it.


She didn't beat the coming trough/front. Now she only has one way to go and that's south with that front as it sweeps through. It's The Great Gulf Wall, theme of 2011.


But wouldn't she be swept to the NE along the leading edge of the front?
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 15483
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1584 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:33 am

latitude_20 wrote:But wouldn't she be swept to the NE along the leading edge of the front?


Her moisture would, but my guess is she will have a weak remnant low remaining that hooks up with the front and goes south with it or dissipate.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
latitude_20
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:46 am
Location: Tulum, Mexico
Contact:

Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1585 Postby latitude_20 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:36 am

Appreciate the response. Thanks!
0 likes   

HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2392
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:

#1586 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:37 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 271504
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 23 20111027
145430 1944N 08622W 6968 03163 0070 +084 +077 131048 048 030 002 00
145500 1943N 08621W 6967 03164 0068 +086 +072 132048 049 031 003 00
145530 1942N 08620W 6974 03154 0067 +086 +076 133049 049 033 002 03
145600 1940N 08619W 6990 03134 0080 +076 +068 132050 050 /// /// 03
145630 1939N 08620W 6968 03160 0078 +076 +073 132052 052 030 002 00
145700 1937N 08621W 6959 03169 0076 +074 //// 131052 053 032 003 01
145730 1936N 08623W 6938 03191 0071 +074 //// 130052 053 032 003 01
145800 1934N 08624W 6928 03199 0060 +079 //// 134053 054 035 002 01
145830 1933N 08626W 6933 03192 0045 +089 //// 139054 055 036 007 01
145900 1931N 08628W 6960 03159 0045 +091 //// 134052 053 037 006 01
145930 1930N 08629W 6967 03149 0039 +093 //// 139056 057 037 004 01
150000 1928N 08631W 6966 03148 0030 +097 //// 142057 059 038 009 01
150030 1927N 08632W 6966 03145 0023 +101 //// 146057 058 043 013 01
150100 1926N 08634W 6953 03159 0012 +106 //// 155058 058 040 008 01
150130 1924N 08635W 6961 03147 0010 +106 //// 152058 058 042 011 01
150200 1923N 08636W 6959 03149 0005 +109 //// 154055 057 045 006 01
150230 1921N 08638W 6966 03138 9999 +111 //// 153054 055 047 004 01
150300 1920N 08639W 6956 03142 9979 +120 //// 161048 051 047 004 01
150330 1919N 08641W 6973 03117 9965 +127 +131 167041 043 049 005 00
150400 1917N 08642W 6957 03132 9958 +128 +125 174038 039 051 006 00

Max flight level wind 59 kt (NE quadrant).
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17829
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1587 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:51 am

latitude_20 wrote:I'm not sure I'm buying into that hairpin turn. Interested to know anyone's thoughts on it.


As I've been saying, there won't be much left of Rina after Saturday afternoon. It will have merged with the front by Saturday night. We won't be able to track a center for 5 days.
0 likes   

HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2392
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:

#1588 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:56 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 271514
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 24 20111027
150430 1917N 08644W 6956 03128 9959 +125 +120 166034 035 /// /// 03
150500 1918N 08646W 6949 03139 9962 +123 +121 148031 033 052 006 00
150530 1920N 08648W 6977 03105 9959 +126 +131 137038 043 052 008 00
150600 1922N 08649W 6959 03130 9963 +124 //// 131048 050 053 017 01
150630 1924N 08651W 6949 03147 9967 +122 //// 126049 052 052 018 01
150700 1925N 08653W 6946 03155 9972 +123 //// 122044 046 051 008 01
150730 1927N 08655W 6951 03150 9988 +115 //// 116040 042 048 006 01
150800 1929N 08657W 6969 03133 9992 +113 //// 111047 051 048 014 01
150830 1930N 08659W 6933 03173 9992 +110 //// 112048 049 049 016 01
150900 1932N 08701W 6929 03186 0012 +103 //// 087038 043 048 015 01
150930 1934N 08702W 6867 03271 0008 +110 +103 047027 030 046 022 00
151000 1935N 08704W 6945 03180 0002 +123 +105 059017 020 049 014 03
151030 1937N 08705W 6961 03160 0007 +122 +101 073020 023 /// /// 03
151100 1938N 08704W 6948 03174 0004 +124 +089 080020 022 039 001 00
151130 1940N 08703W 6950 03176 0006 +126 +082 084021 023 039 001 00
151200 1941N 08701W 6958 03168 0012 +123 +082 087023 025 038 000 00
151230 1942N 08700W 6926 03207 0024 +111 +089 097029 031 038 000 00
151300 1944N 08658W 6955 03173 0022 +117 +086 106030 032 037 001 00
151330 1945N 08656W 6957 03172 0033 +108 +089 106027 028 036 001 00
151400 1946N 08655W 6955 03175 0034 +108 +086 110030 032 035 000 00
0 likes   

HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2392
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:

#1589 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 11:07 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 271524
NOAA2 1218A RINA HDOB 25 20111027
151430 1948N 08653W 6955 03174 0033 +109 +084 116032 033 036 000 00
151500 1949N 08652W 6956 03175 0036 +108 +083 118033 034 035 000 00
151530 1951N 08651W 6953 03180 0040 +107 +078 117033 033 035 001 00
151600 1953N 08650W 6956 03178 0039 +109 +074 116032 032 034 002 00
151630 1955N 08649W 6956 03178 0037 +112 +071 119031 032 035 003 00
151700 1956N 08648W 6955 03181 0052 +099 +085 116036 038 034 000 00
151730 1958N 08647W 6956 03181 0060 +094 +087 120037 038 033 002 00
151800 2000N 08646W 6954 03186 0062 +093 +090 118032 035 034 002 00
151830 2002N 08645W 6955 03184 0065 +091 +088 130032 035 032 002 00
151900 2004N 08644W 6956 03185 0066 +092 +090 128038 041 030 003 00
151930 2006N 08643W 6957 03183 0057 +102 +067 122033 035 033 002 00
152000 2008N 08641W 6955 03184 0064 +096 +061 119044 046 031 002 00
152030 2009N 08640W 6959 03180 0054 +105 +050 119042 043 033 002 00
152100 2011N 08639W 6955 03188 0067 +097 +055 117044 044 032 002 00
152130 2013N 08638W 6955 03189 0078 +089 +062 113042 043 029 003 00
152200 2014N 08637W 6958 03188 0075 +092 +075 113036 037 031 005 00
152230 2016N 08636W 6955 03192 0072 +095 +076 110030 031 032 005 00
152300 2018N 08635W 6957 03192 0065 +102 +074 112029 030 033 009 00
152330 2019N 08633W 6958 03191 0060 +107 +072 126030 032 034 011 00
152400 2021N 08632W 6959 03188 0058 +108 +069 137032 033 034 011 00

mission over
0 likes   

User avatar
StormTracker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2842
Age: 52
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.

Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1590 Postby StormTracker » Thu Oct 27, 2011 11:10 am

wxman57 wrote:
latitude_20 wrote:I'm not sure I'm buying into that hairpin turn. Interested to know anyone's thoughts on it.


As I've been saying, there won't be much left of Rina after Saturday afternoon. It will have merged with the front by Saturday night. We won't be able to track a center for 5 days.


Since you are always on top of your game wxman57, what do you see beyond the 5 day period(after Thursday)?
0 likes   
Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17829
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1591 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 11:36 am

StormTracker wrote:
Since you are always on top of your game wxman57, what do you see beyond the 5 day period(after Thursday)?


I see the 12Z GFS still trying to develop another storm in the SW Caribbean next week, but we'll see about that. Can't rule out another development there, but models are also forecasting a lot of sinking air in the Caribbean over the coming month.
0 likes   

User avatar
expat2carib
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 458
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:44 pm
Location: Sint Maarten

Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1592 Postby expat2carib » Thu Oct 27, 2011 11:53 am

What about a "Wrong lane Lenny" or "Left hand Omar" scenario?
0 likes   

User avatar
StormTracker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2842
Age: 52
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.

Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1593 Postby StormTracker » Thu Oct 27, 2011 12:31 pm

StormTracker wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
latitude_20 wrote:I'm not sure I'm buying into that hairpin turn. Interested to know anyone's thoughts on it.


As I've been saying, there won't be much left of Rina after Saturday afternoon. It will have merged with the front by Saturday night. We won't be able to track a center for 5 days.


Since you are always on top of your game wxman57, what do you see beyond the 5 day period(after Thursday)?

How did I know that was coming? That is what I was thinking too! Thanks for that! We'll just have to keep an eye on that area for the next week or so!
0 likes   
Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!

User avatar
latitude_20
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:46 am
Location: Tulum, Mexico
Contact:

Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1594 Postby latitude_20 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 12:46 pm

Is it me or has the convection pretty much opened up into a squall?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111272
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: RINA - Advisories

#1595 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 27, 2011 12:51 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
100 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...RINA MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 87.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL
TO PROGRESO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ONTO THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2392
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:

#1596 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 1:31 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 271828
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 27/18:11:40Z
B. 19 deg 31 min N
087 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1367 m
D. 48 kt
E. 046 deg 15 nm
F. 128 deg 55 kt
G. 046 deg 30 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 16 C / 1515 m
J. 22 C / 1525 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 1318A RINA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 55 KT NE QUAD 18:03:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 230 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
0 likes   

HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2392
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:

#1597 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 2:39 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 271930
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 27/18:56:40Z
B. 19 deg 33 min N
087 deg 06 min W
C. 850 mb 1372 m
D. 37 kt
E. 134 deg 16 nm
F. 207 deg 47 kt
G. 137 deg 11 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 19 C / 1523 m
J. 24 C / 1518 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 1318A RINA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 55 KT NE QUAD 18:03:00Z
BKN CLDS BLO
SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE
;
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111272
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: RINA - Advisories

#1598 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT RINA CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 87.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
GRUESA TO PROGRESO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF RINA SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND THEN BE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...
95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ONTO THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT RINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS DISSIPATED...AND
THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT
HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 58 KT AND SURFACE
WIND ESTIMATES OF 48 KT FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE
RADIOMETER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 350/6. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COMBINATION OF RINA WEAKENING TO A SHALLOW
VORTEX AND RISING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURES TO ITS NORTHWEST SHOULD CAUSE
RINA TO TURN SOUTHWARD. WHILE THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RINA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL
MEANDER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 48
HOURS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN THE OLD FORECAST. WHILE THIS TRACK IS
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE SOUTHWARD
MOTION IS SLOWER THAN THAT OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST NEAR OR OVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THIS...
ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE
CYCLONE...SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING. BASED ON THIS AND THE
CURRENT TRENDS...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RINA TO MEET
AN EARLIER DEMISE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE CYCLONE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 48 HOURS AND TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF THE STRUCTURE AND LOCATION OF THE REMNANTS OF RINA
THE FORECAST OF REMNANT LOW AT 120 HOURS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 19.8N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 20.6N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1800Z 21.3N 87.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 21.2N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 29/1800Z 20.9N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 20.0N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 17.0N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111272
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1599 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:37 pm

Rins forecast demise is more fast at 4 PM CDT advisory.

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT RINA CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 87.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2392
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:

#1600 Postby HenkL » Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:44 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 272030
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 27/19:54:10Z
B. 19 deg 40 min N
087 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1377 m
D. 48 kt
E. 051 deg 42 nm
F. 146 deg 53 kt
G. 067 deg 9 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 18 C / 1524 m
J. 27 C / 1536 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 1318A RINA OB 17
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 58 KT E QUAD 19:59:30Z
0 likes   


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests