ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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fci
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#1601 Postby fci » Thu Oct 27, 2011 5:45 pm

Anybody see any tweets from JB about his forecast?
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1602 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 6:25 pm

LLC has decoupled from the convection and is moving into the peninsula. Definitely not a 60 mph storm now. Bye Rina!
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1603 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:03 pm

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#1604 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:14 pm

Hopefully this is the end of this hurricane season. Such a bizarre year.
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Re:

#1605 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:28 pm

fci wrote:Anybody see any tweets from JB about his forecast?


JB's head has decoupled from his body as his forecast was sheared to pieces.

Expect a 60% chance of regeneration though.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Advisories

#1606 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:48 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...CENTER OF RINA PASSING JUST WEST OF COZUMEL...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 87.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO SAN FELIPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ALLEN TO SAN FELIPE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO MEXICO...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE MEXICAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. RINA SHOULD THEN
BEGIN A SOUTHWARD DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
REMAIN THERE FOR A FEW DAYS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND RINA SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. PUERTO AVENTURAS ON THE YUCATAN
COAST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO NEAR 44 MPH...71 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN COZUMEL
AND ALONG PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST....
PRIMARILY ON COZUMEL AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN. THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

RINA HAS BECOME A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN
DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AGO...AND I WAS TEMPTED TO
LOWER THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
CHECKING THE CYCLONE MEASURED SEVERAL FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WHICH
SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH
LAND AS WELL. ON THIS BASIS...RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND
THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EARLY SATURDAY IF NOT SOONER. RINA WILL LIKELY BECOME A
MEANDERING REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION.

FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
SOUTHWARD BACK TO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE IT ALL BEGAN. MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS PREFER THIS SOLUTION. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO
THIS...IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 20.5N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 21.5N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0000Z 21.5N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/1200Z 21.0N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 20.0N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z 19.5N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 18.0N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: Re:

#1607 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:03 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
fci wrote:Anybody see any tweets from JB about his forecast?


JB's head has decoupled from his body as his forecast was sheared to pieces.

Expect a 60% chance of regeneration though.


LMAO! Good one. Like the guy that keeps forecasting the end of the world, repeated flops don't dissuade the faithful.
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Re:

#1608 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Oct 27, 2011 11:06 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Hopefully this is the end of this hurricane season. Such a bizarre year.




Yea, I think NOW we can put a fork in this season....Rina is a good example of a storm that got its act together, but then once again, the conditions just weren't there to sustain it, and it was ripped apart.(welcome to 2011).. This suppose to be the time of the year when the conditions are prime in that area, but that window is closing rapidly, and the conditions in the gulf/carib are only going to go downhill from here.... Next year is another season though and who knows, we may end up with a record number of hurricanes, just no way of telling....
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Re: Re:

#1609 Postby fci » Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:05 am

psyclone wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:
fci wrote:Anybody see any tweets from JB about his forecast?


JB's head has decoupled from his body as his forecast was sheared to pieces.

Expect a 60% chance of regeneration though.


LMAO! Good one. Like the guy that keeps forecasting the end of the world, repeated flops don't dissuade the faithful.


But I GUARANTEE you that his legion of followers would be crowing had he guessed correctly.
I still respect him as a Pro Met, in spite of the flops.
He knows a lot more than I do so he inherently gets respect.
His legion is another thing though. They will now be very silent. Until the next time he guesses correctly in which case they will be insufferable!
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1610 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 28, 2011 6:39 am

Lets get back on topic please.

Where is Rina going? :)

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Nighttime visible shows LLC still stuck over the NE Yuc

Live loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1611 Postby cpdaman » Fri Oct 28, 2011 6:47 am

where the heck is rina going .....looks like she's formed at least a MLC or a new LLC and is heading for S florida? no

my concern is that she will funk up and weaken the shortwave dipping thru tenn/N ga that will help spawn a very anomalous nor'easter and that rina may put a damper on the nor'easter.


what is rina doing?
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1612 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2011 6:48 am

This is what Rina is doing right now. :)

...RINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 86.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1613 Postby AJC3 » Fri Oct 28, 2011 6:50 am

tolakram wrote:Where is Rina going? :)

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal


Well, I can tell you where her top half is going....across southernmost FL and the Keys (see my TUE morning post). As far as her LLC, that's going nowhere fast. She's in the process of being ripped in two now. I think she's offically a goner by 5PM, but feel free to give her last rites at 11AM.
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Re: Re:

#1614 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 28, 2011 7:05 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:
fci wrote:Anybody see any tweets from JB about his forecast?


JB's head has decoupled from his body as his forecast was sheared to pieces.

Expect a 60% chance of regeneration though.



Not a good year for JB in the tropics!
He needs to stick to his long, long, long range winter forecasts, lol.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1615 Postby AJC3 » Fri Oct 28, 2011 7:24 am

tolakram wrote:Lets get back on topic please.


This :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Gang, we really need to lay off the editorializing about forecasters, and forecast agencies, be they JB, NHC or whomever.

Let's stick to the topic (Rina).
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1616 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 28, 2011 7:47 am

Surface obs put a weak low near Cancun this morning. Cancun was reporting east winds at 15 kts last hour. No report since then, but they probably have west winds at 10-15 kts now. Low center is at the NE tip of the Yucatan near 21.5N/86.9W, as seen on visible imagery. The blob in the Gulf is a mid-level rotation that got sheared off. Surface obs near it are in the 15-20 kt range. It's moving into an area with 40+ kts of wind shear, so don't look for the LLC to regenerate beneath it. Today may be the end of Rina.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1617 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 28, 2011 8:41 am

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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1618 Postby FireRat » Fri Oct 28, 2011 9:30 am

I just saw some footage from Cancun and there were some trees down and event parts of roofing on the ground, while lightning flashed in the background at night. That's quite a hefty blow for such a weak storm.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WToCEDJJhJg&feature=player_embedded
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Re: ATL: RINA - Advisories

#1619 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2011 9:34 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...RINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE CENTER MOVES INTO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 86.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF CANCUN MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RINA COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL TODAY.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND PASSAGE OVER
LAND HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON RINA. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND...BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND OBSERVATIONS
FROM CANCUN MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
IN ADDITION...THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH...AND A
SECOND LOW-LEVEL VORITICTY MAXIMUM HAS FORMED ABOUT 90 N MI
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION IN THAT
AREA. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT RINA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH A 30-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/5. RINA IS CURRENTLY
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN RINA
SOUTHWARD IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE
SOUTHWARD TURN THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND NEAR THEM AFTER THAT.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CONTINUE
OVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THUS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO DENEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THIS
COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST THE
REMNANTS OF RINA TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 120 HOURS...SO THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 21.8N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 22.1N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 22.1N 85.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 21.4N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 20.6N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1200Z 19.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1620 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2011 9:36 am

Tony,the last rites as a storm came more rapid. :)

...RINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE CENTER MOVES INTO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 86.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF CANCUN MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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