ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1621 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 28, 2011 10:11 am

It would be cool if it went back down south and combined with 97L to return as another hurricane, but even if it did there's seems to be a permanent dry air/front environment hanging down in the GOM.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1622 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 28, 2011 10:12 am

Bones says it already is a remnant low...

Image
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1623 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:24 pm

Interesting mess.

Live 15 frame visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1624 Postby Chickenzilla » Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:25 pm

Do you see a LLCC?
I see a weak one little NE of northeastern tip of Yucatan.
Image

Now moving ESE.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1625 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Oct 28, 2011 1:18 pm

Chickenzilla wrote:Do you see a LLCC?
I see a weak one little NE of northeastern tip of Yucatan.
http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/5353/at201118sat1.jpg

Now moving ESE.


Not enough to keep it alive.

Looking forward to the rain up here in Florida though.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1626 Postby Zarniwoop » Fri Oct 28, 2011 2:08 pm

Okay, these are going to be very ignorant questions, but looking at this storm, I can't help but be puzzled.

It looks like a nasty storm is in the process of blowing across south and central Florida. I understand that the actual low pressure center is still way back in the Caribbean, but how on earth does the moisture separate that easily and quickly from a Hurricane? Is shear doing this or is it just a much larger front?

Basically, I'm looking for someone with the patience to explain the GIGANTIC changes to Rina and what I can expect from that huge cloud formation this weekend in Orlando. Just rain? Bit of wind also? Then, I need someone to explain how the gigantic moisture clouds can essentially pack its bags and leave the storm spiraling weakly when it was a hurricane less than 24 hours ago. I know there's a shear environment and it moved over land, but I've never seen anything like this in the short time I've been obsessively reading this forum.

I know that most people here are very knowledgeable, and living through Ike gave me a taste for weather-watching and I find the science behind it fascinating. I won't know all the words, but I have 2 engineering degrees so I will be pretty receptive to any and all information offered.

Thanks in advance to any kind soul who has the time.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1627 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2011 2:10 pm

It looks like the 4 PM CDT advisory will be the last one.

18z Best Track:

AL, 18, 2011102818, , BEST, 0, 218N, 864W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1628 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 28, 2011 2:17 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:Thanks in advance to any kind soul who has the time.


I'm not a met so these are laymen answers and some may need to be corrected.

As a tropical system with a warm core and storms fueled by warm water Rina no longer exists. The NHC only tracks tropical systems. What is there now is the remaining mid level circulation that was blown off the low level circulation due to extremely high shear, moving NE into Florida, while the old LLC is still near the yuc.

Tropical systems are extremely efficient at generating high winds near the surface with their stacked LLC and MLC (mid level circulation). With only the MLC left and heading toward Florida most of the winds will not make it to the ground. In addition, without the tropical engine running, the circulation is not very fast or organized, if any still exists.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1629 Postby Zarniwoop » Fri Oct 28, 2011 2:27 pm

tolakram wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:Thanks in advance to any kind soul who has the time.


I'm not a met so these are laymen answers and some may need to be corrected.

As a tropical system with a warm core and storms fueled by warm water Rina no longer exists. The NHC only tracks tropical systems. What is there now is the remaining mid level circulation that was blown off the low level circulation due to extremely high shear, moving NE into Florida, while the old LLC is still near the yuc.

Tropical systems are extremely efficient at generating high winds near the surface with their stacked LLC and MLC (mid level circulation). With only the MLC left and heading toward Florida most of the winds will not make it to the ground. In addition, without the tropical engine running, the circulation is not very fast or organized, if any still exists.


Thank you for answering.

Can Florida expect heavy rains or is it difficult to tell? I checked our weekend outlook and it looked pretty ordinary just a bit cloudy with a touch of rain. Seeing that huge mass I'm shocked by that.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1630 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 28, 2011 2:39 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:
Thank you for answering.

Can Florida expect heavy rains or is it difficult to tell? I checked our weekend outlook and it looked pretty ordinary just a bit cloudy with a touch of rain. Seeing that huge mass I'm shocked by that.



That you need a pro-met for. Why not just consult your local weather service? I'm sure they have a handle on the situation.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1631 Postby Zarniwoop » Fri Oct 28, 2011 2:41 pm

Did that.

I understand what appears to be happening, I was just looking for a deeper understanding of how. I understand the air layers and the different effects they have at a basic level.

I'll just leave it at that I guess.

I just can't figure out how that massive chunk of clouds with still rising towers isn't going to soak the hell out of us.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1632 Postby psyclone » Fri Oct 28, 2011 3:03 pm

tolakram wrote:
Zarniwoop wrote:
Thank you for answering.

Can Florida expect heavy rains or is it difficult to tell? I checked our weekend outlook and it looked pretty ordinary just a bit cloudy with a touch of rain. Seeing that huge mass I'm shocked by that.



That you need a pro-met for. Why not just consult your local weather service? I'm sure they have a handle on the situation.

I'm certainly not a promet but i don't think the i-4 corridor will get heavy rains from this. a better chance for heavier, convective rainfall probably exists over southern florida where greater instability resides. the weekend looks decent with the possible exception of the first half of saturday where rain (most likely fairly light) could be an issue.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1633 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 28, 2011 3:09 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:Okay, these are going to be very ignorant questions, but looking at this storm, I can't help but be puzzled.

It looks like a nasty storm is in the process of blowing across south and central Florida. I understand that the actual low pressure center is still way back in the Caribbean, but how on earth does the moisture separate that easily and quickly from a Hurricane? Is shear doing this or is it just a much larger front?

Basically, I'm looking for someone with the patience to explain the GIGANTIC changes to Rina and what I can expect from that huge cloud formation this weekend in Orlando. Just rain? Bit of wind also? Then, I need someone to explain how the gigantic moisture clouds can essentially pack its bags and leave the storm spiraling weakly when it was a hurricane less than 24 hours ago. I know there's a shear environment and it moved over land, but I've never seen anything like this in the short time I've been obsessively reading this forum.

I know that most people here are very knowledgeable, and living through Ike gave me a taste for weather-watching and I find the science behind it fascinating. I won't know all the words, but I have 2 engineering degrees so I will be pretty receptive to any and all information offered.

Thanks in advance to any kind soul who has the time.


As I said earlier in this thread, and often before, hurricanes are actually quite fragile structures, requiring a homogeneous atmosphere wind-wise from the surface to the top to keep the eyewall vertically stacked. When Rina moved toward Cozumel, it ran into a band of increasing southwesterly winds aloft (45 mph or a little more). Winds at the surface were blowing in a different direction, resulting in considerable wind shear (variance of wind speed or direction with height). Wind shear like that can kill a hurricane in only a matter of hours, and that's what happened to Rina. I've seen it happen much faster than that before.

I'm monitoring surface observations in those squalls that were carried off by the strong southwest winds aloft. Buoys are reporting only about 15 mph winds at the surface. The squalls will be moving across the central and southern Florida peninsula this afternoon through tonight ahead of the cold front. No significant wind at the surface, with the exception of a few gusts in thunderstorms, as often happens.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1634 Postby Zarniwoop » Fri Oct 28, 2011 3:20 pm

Thanks to all who replied.

I love this forum and as glad as I am that most of the Atlantic and GOM will be free of cyclones for half a year or so, I will miss the discussions here until next season rolls around.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1635 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2011 3:24 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:Thanks to all who replied.

I love this forum and as glad as I am that most of the Atlantic and GOM will be free of cyclones for half a year or so, I will miss the discussions here until next season rolls around.


You can stick around during the off season at Talking Tropics forum where you will have plenty of information prior to the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season and the discussions continue there.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Advisories

#1636 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2011 3:37 pm

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...RINA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 86.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. RINA
WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTH EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT RINA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

AN ASCAT OVERPASS NEAR 1600 UTC SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF RINA
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. A SMALL AREA OF 25-KT WINDS WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 60 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS IN
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE HAS BEEN NO ORGANIZED CENTRAL
CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS NEAR THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF RINA.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...RINA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
CONTINUING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/4. THE REMNANTS OF RINA ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON RINA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 21.9N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 29/0600Z 22.1N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z 21.7N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 21.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 20.5N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z 19.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1637 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 28, 2011 3:38 pm

See you in 2016!

...RINA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 86.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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#1638 Postby fci » Fri Oct 28, 2011 4:19 pm

Just a funny post script to Rina.
About an hour ago, the on air personality on The Weather Channel said Rina was by Cancun and then the graphic showed the word "Rina" off the SW Florida coast And she said Rina would be moving across South Florida!
That folks is why one should use the NWS, NHC and Storm2K to follow storms.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1639 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 28, 2011 4:45 pm

Rain picking-up here from blown-off top of Rina.
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Re:

#1640 Postby psyclone » Fri Oct 28, 2011 4:45 pm

fci wrote:Just a funny post script to Rina.
About an hour ago, the on air personality on The Weather Channel said Rina was by Cancun and then the graphic showed the word "Rina" off the SW Florida coast And she said Rina would be moving across South Florida!
That folks is why one should use the NWS, NHC and Storm2K to follow storms.


well, the most significant weather associated with the remains of Rina is the convective cluster approaching the southwest Florida coast right now. so, from a sensible wx standpoint, that is accurate even if Rina has ceased to be a tc.
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