ATL: EX INVEST 97L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#81 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:49 am

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ARUBA...CURACAO
AND BONAIRE...THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
PLEASE SEE INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Interesting they lowered it from their own 11pm "Special"
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#82 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:08 am

This mornings discussion of 97L by Rob of Crown Weather:

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http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Invest 97L:
If Rina wasn’t enough, we are once again closely monitoring Invest 97L which is now located in south-central Caribbean just north of Curacao. Invest 97L has become better organized overnight and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development over the next few days. I do think that this will become our next tropical depression and very possibly our next tropical storm over the next 2 to 3 days. None of the global models are spinning up this disturbance even though it is clearly showing signs of organization and development.

The dynamical hurricane models, however, are forecasting significant development with the SHIPS and LGEM models forecasting borderline Category 2-3 strength by this weekend. The track guidance like the three BAM models are forecasting a track that pulls this system northward across the Cayman Islands on Friday and then across western or central Cuba and towards south Florida by Sunday. As for the other dynamical hurricane guidance, the HWRF model forecasts that 97L will become a tropical storm during the day Wednesday and then a hurricane by about Friday. From there, the HWRF model forecasts that future Sean will affect the Cayman Islands as a upper end Category 2 hurricane late Friday and then cross central Cuba on Saturday night for a potential landfall in south Florida on Sunday.

The GFDL model is forecasting that 97L will develop into a tropical storm over the next couple of days and potentially become a hurricane by about Friday. The GFDL model then forecasts that future Sean will turn northwestward and possibly affect the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane on Saturday this weekend and then approach western Cuba as a major hurricane on Sunday.

I think there is enough evidence in the satellite presentation and the forecast favorable environmental conditions to say that Invest 97L needs to be watched very closely over the next couple of days and interests in the Cayman Islands should pay particularly close attention to this system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#83 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:00 am

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Not sure what they are seeing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#84 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:16 am

I'm a little puzzled about this system. The model guidance shows a potential hurricane threat for the NW Caribbean, but it's entering the same buzzsaw that Rina is ultimately heading into?
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#85 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:02 am

strange how they are thinking this storm will simply ignore the same conditions that Rina will be in at the same time? In fact, Rina seems to not even be a factor either.
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#86 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:08 am

If those models are right, then this is definitely the threat to watch.
Does the front simply disintegrate after tearing apart Rina? and leave behind more favorable conditions for Sean in its wake?
Maybe Rina helps moisten up the atmosphere ahead of Sean and sacrifices herself for him. ???
Very curious to see how this will unfold.
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Re:

#87 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:24 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:If those models are right, then this is definitely the threat to watch.
Does the front simply disintegrate after tearing apart Rina? and leave behind more favorable conditions for Sean in its wake?
Maybe Rina helps moisten up the atmosphere ahead of Sean and sacrifices herself for him. ???
Very curious to see how this will unfold.


This scenario is indeed quite possible. I think as Rina maxes out in begins to weaken in a couple of days, 97L may indeed become the dominant tropical entity by this weekend. The interaction of these two systems the next few days is going to be very interesting to monitor for sure!
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Re: Re:

#88 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:28 am

northjaxpro wrote:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:If those models are right, then this is definitely the threat to watch.
Does the front simply disintegrate after tearing apart Rina? and leave behind more favorable conditions for Sean in its wake?
Maybe Rina helps moisten up the atmosphere ahead of Sean and sacrifices herself for him. ???
Very curious to see how this will unfold.


This scenario is indeed quite possible. I think as Rina maxes out in begins to weaken in a couple of days, 97L may indeed become the dominant tropical entity by this weekend. The interaction of these two systems the next few days is going to be very interesting to monitor for sure!


Or maybe there's a strong surge of cooler, drier air flowing across the NW Caribbean in Rina's wake that prevents any development.
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#89 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:42 am

Wxman57 that scenario is equally plausible as well. We can always count on you with your astute analysis.

There is so much cooler and drier air in the GOM and FL that at some point will begin to infiltrate into the NW Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#90 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:02 pm

Down to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ARUBA...CURACAO AND
BONAIRE...THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
PLEASE SEE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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#91 Postby Hylian Auree » Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:33 pm

This brought us yucky weather all morning. It's gotten pretty disorganized compared to last night, and the low seems to be weakening. Can't rule out development over the western Carib, but with Rina occupying that area right now I see little opportunity for 97L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#92 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:01 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#93 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:16 pm

Down to 10%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AND ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#94 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2011 6:45 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#95 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2011 12:28 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al972011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110261721
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#96 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:50 pm

Don't write it off it could be trying to curl-up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#97 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 4:39 pm

Sanibel wrote:Don't write it off it could be trying to curl-up.


I don't think it has a chance with that cool, dry air spilling into the NW Caribbean in 48 hrs. But we may need to keep an eye on the trailing end of the front in another week for possible development in the SW Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#98 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:16 pm

Up to 10%

1. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE BEING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
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Re: ATL: EX INVEST 97L - Discussion

#99 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Fri Oct 28, 2011 1:04 am

Here is an IR loop of ex invest97l. It seems like there is some increase in shower activity.
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