ATL: EX INVEST 97L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12102
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#41 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:20 am

8PM TWD

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A 1008 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N55W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 52W-57W.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#42 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:36 pm

18z Best Track

ATCF did not update 97L since 00z,but they did it at 18z.

AL, 97, 2011102318, , BEST, 0, 117N, 563W, 25, 1006
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#43 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2011 3:50 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I am starting to have the feeling that this one may be a sleeper down the road and be a big threat to someone in the Caribbean.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12102
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#44 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I am starting to have the feeling that this one may be a sleeper down the road and be a big threat to someone in the Caribbean.

Thanks for you input Cycloneye :) , we appreciate us in the EC islands. Meanwhile, Guadeloupe and Martinica are since this afternoon 5PM under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms due to a perturbed area near Barbabos and moving towards Martinica and Guadeloupe.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12102
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#45 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:52 pm

Here is the latest weather forecast for Guadeloupe given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France (who are in strike, they gave us at least this special weather forecast... thanks to them :) )

:rarrow: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

Meteorological vigilance Guadeloupe LEVEL yellow for "strong rain / THUNDERSTORMS".

[/size]Current situation and Observations

For the moment the time is still relatively stable with however some few showers begin to crab-wise on our archipelago. A disturbed area located south of Barbados gradually goes back to our islands, first setting Martinique and Guadeloupe.

Forecasts

More wet and disturbed weather is expected from this evening and early in night next but especially in the second part of night and day
Monday. First, the showers moderate to sometimes supported is trigger here and there this Sunday evening.
Later and more particularly in the second part of night, a more intense rainy passages accompanied by thunderstorms are to fear on
all the island, which may produce significant accumulations of rain more than 100 millimeters by location. East to northeast wind gusts
will then be able to reach the 50 to 70 kilometers per hour under the moderate rain and/or stormy.

Comments /Consequences

The risk of abrupt rise of localized flooding and water courses.

Summary

The risk of occurence of the phenomenon is a moderate.

The expected impact

Low to moderate.

Validity - period of phenomenon

Sunday, October 23 at 8PM on Tuesday, October 25 at midday.

Next newsletter

Monday, October 24 at about 06 AM.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12102
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#46 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:57 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2011 6:43 pm

8 PM TWO

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12102
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#48 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:42 pm

8 PM TWD

000
AXNT20 KNHC 232344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LOW E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD TOWARDS THE BASIN BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#49 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 23, 2011 8:28 pm

00z Best Track

97L is still hanging around.

AL, 97, 2011102400, , BEST, 0, 120N, 569W, 25, 1006, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12102
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#50 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 24, 2011 5:11 am

2 AM TWD

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A 1010 MB LOW IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDSNEAR 12N56W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 52W-55W.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12102
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#51 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 24, 2011 5:24 am

Loop.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#52 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 5:55 am

More thuunderstorms today than in past days.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#53 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 6:44 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#54 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:16 am

12z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011102412, , BEST, 0, 121N, 624W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#55 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:19 am

12z Tropical Models:

SHIP goes bunkers.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 241237
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC MON OCT 24 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20111024 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111024  1200   111025  0000   111025  1200   111026  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.1N  62.4W   12.3N  65.1W   12.3N  67.6W   12.5N  70.1W
BAMD    12.1N  62.4W   12.2N  65.1W   12.3N  67.7W   12.5N  70.1W
BAMM    12.1N  62.4W   12.3N  65.3W   12.5N  68.0W   12.8N  70.5W
LBAR    12.1N  62.4W   12.4N  65.8W   12.9N  69.1W   13.6N  72.0W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111026  1200   111027  1200   111028  1200   111029  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.7N  72.6W   14.6N  76.9W   17.4N  80.3W   19.9N  82.4W
BAMD    12.8N  72.2W   14.1N  76.0W   16.1N  79.2W   18.8N  81.4W
BAMM    13.3N  72.8W   15.2N  76.9W   17.8N  80.1W   20.6N  81.7W
LBAR    14.2N  74.7W   16.5N  78.4W   19.1N  79.7W   22.4N  78.5W
SHIP        54KTS          78KTS          95KTS         101KTS
DSHP        54KTS          78KTS          95KTS         101KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.1N LONCUR =  62.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  59.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  56.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  150NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  270NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#56 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:32 am

Is the sleeper trying to wake up?

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5784
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#57 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 24, 2011 11:18 am

97L is looking significantly better today compared to any time during the weekend. Convection has really flared in the past 12-24 hours and the system has been able to hold together quite well considering its proximity to the South America coast and low latitude. It is beginning to appear that 97L may just have a rather decent chance to spin-up into a possible tropcial cyclone deep down in the Caribbean later this week. Certainly, all interests in the Caribbean needs to pay a bit closer attention to this feature and not let their guard down.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2017-18 Meteorological Winter Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
Hylian Auree
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 150
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 7:01 pm
Location: Willemstad, Curaçao
Contact:

#58 Postby Hylian Auree » Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:18 pm

Wah, it's so hot and humid over here in Curacao @_@"
There's no wind at all, and the mid-level atmosphere is very densely clouded
I hope this won't produce too much rain... we've already been saturated by continuous showers due to the monsoon trough lifting northward.

Curacao radar loop: http://www.meteo.an/SatRadarImages/Img_ ... i_Loop.asp

Development-wise, I doubt this'll organize into much in the short term. It has little model support and conditions aren't too favorable. In the western Caribbean, who knows.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#59 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:52 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#60 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:50 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011102418, , BEST, 0, 121N, 625W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest