WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

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euro6208
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WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#1 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:35 am

Image

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.3N 112.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVERGENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AND ILL
DEFINED WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 050123Z ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS SHOWS ENHANCED (20-25 KNOT) SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
THE LLCC WITH WEAKER (05-10 KNOT) WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. A 042337Z
37H TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK AND FRAGMENTED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
BANDING. THE 050000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER A HIGHLY DIVERGENT AREA LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF A ZONALLY ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 05-10 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 98W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 06, 2011 12:45 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 112.3E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 052242Z
TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH WRAPPING
BROADLY INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BOTH THE 051407Z ASCAT AND THE 051556Z
OCEANSAT IMAGES INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT
CORE WINDS AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER EASTERLY FLOW WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). SST IS FAVORABLE AT 28-
29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 98W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 06, 2011 5:00 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
111.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A LARGE BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A 060243Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE LLCC WITH 20-30 KNOT NORTHERLIES TO THE NORTH AND 20-
30 KNOT SOUTHERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER EASTERLY FLOW WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). SST IS FAVORABLE AT 28-
29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 98W

#4 Postby Typhoon10 » Sun Nov 06, 2011 7:06 pm

TCFA issues by JTWC

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 111.5E TO 17.3N 110.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
062200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
111.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
111.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 111.2E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 062042Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 061510Z PARTIAL OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS DATA IS SUPPORTED BY FOUR
RECENT SHIP REPORTS NEAR THE CENTER VERIFYING 20 KNOT WINDS AND SLP
NEAR 1003MB (A8RH4 AND A8TC4). SST IS FAVORABLE AT 28-29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH 10-20 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 98W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 06, 2011 7:32 pm

Image

Image

ok
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Re: WPAC: Invest 98W

#6 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Nov 06, 2011 8:41 pm

JMA still holding it as a LPA about 1004HPA

Image
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#7 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:19 am

Now Tropical Depression 24W.

24WTWENTYFOUR.30kts-1000mb-165N-1099E
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#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:23 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 111E NNW SLOWLY.

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 109.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 109.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.7N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.9N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.6N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 109.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120
NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:55 pm

PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.7N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.2N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.6N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.9N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 108.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:08 am

WTPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 109.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 109.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.9N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.2N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 109.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS DISPLACED FROM THE CONVECTION BY
OVER 120 MILES. INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 080202Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING
20 KT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. THIS WEAKENED STATE IS SUPPORTED BY
WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE LLCC IS LOCATED BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
PROVIDING GOOD POTENTIAL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, FORECAST DEVELOPMENT IS
CONSTRAINED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY DURING DISSIPATION. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 10 FEET.
//
NNNN

Image

FINAL WARNING
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 24W

#11 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Nov 08, 2011 8:08 pm

I posted this video yesterday, just a quick forecast of this storm, very disrupted now and over with, but guess can be used as an overview at this point.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2A9EuIu5y8Q[/youtube]
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