NIO: Depression (ARB 1103) (04A)

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NIO: Depression (ARB 1103) (04A)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 05, 2011 9:00 pm

Looking good. Arabian sea heating up after Keila and now this.

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Re: NIO: INVEST 96A

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 06, 2011 5:49 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 72.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 67.6E, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED WITHIN A 600-700NM DIAMETER MONSOON DEPRESSION (ALSO
INDICATED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP). OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ARABIAN PENINSULA.
CONSEQUENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LLCC AND A
051316Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 050445Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A
STRONGER LLCC, ALTHOUGH ELONGATED, WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LLCC ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 96A

#3 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 06, 2011 6:04 am

Now a Depression (ARB 1103).

ARB 03/2011/01 Dated: 06.11. 2011

Time of issue: 1400 hours IST


Sub: Depression over southeast Arabian Sea.


Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southeast Arabian Sea and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 06th November 2011 near latitude 10.50N and longitude 65.50E, about 1050 km west-southwest of Mangalore (Karnataka), 1350 km east-southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 1450 km southeast of Salalah (Oman). The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move wes-t northwestwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 72 hrs.

As the depression is expected to move west-northwestwards away from west coast of India, no adverse weather will occur along and off west coast of India under the influence of this system. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 06th November, 2011
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Re: NIO: INVEST 96A

#4 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 06, 2011 6:09 am

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-11-2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 06 NOVEMBER, 2011 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 06 NOVEMBER, 2011 (.)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 06TH NOVEMBER 2011 NEAR LATITUDE 10.50N AND LONGITUDE 65.50E, ABOUT 1050 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANGALORE (43284), 1350 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND ((41494) AND 1450 KM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN DURING NEXT 72 HRS.


SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER ARSEA BET LAT 8.50N TO 15.00N LONG 59.00E TO 65.50E.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -780C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.


SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 HPA. THE SHIP (POSITION NEAR 9.50N AND 680E) REPORTED MSLP OF 1010.5 HPA WITH TENDENCY OF +1.5 HPA AND WIND OF 210/19 KNOTS. ANOTHER SHIP (POSITION NEAR 13.60N AND 62.90E) REPORTED MSLP OF 1011.1 HPA WITH TENDENCY OF -1.0 HPA AND WIND OF 010/30 KNOTS.


REMARK:

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. AS PER THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS, IT WOULD LIE OVER THE SAME PHASE DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND THEN MOVE TO PHASE 5 AND 6. WHILE PHASE 4 IS FAVOURABLE, PHASE 5 AND 6 ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR CYCLOGENIS AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 280-290C. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS (60-80 KJ/CM2). THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAVE INCREASED DURING PAST 24 HRS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS FAVOURABLE AS IT IS LOW TO MODERATE (BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS). THERE IS NEGATIVE (05 KNOTS) 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 170N IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. CONSIDERING ALL THESE, THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN DURING NEXT 72 HRS. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE NWP MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DEPRESSION STAGE.
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Re: NIO: Depression (ARB 1103) (96A)

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 06, 2011 6:22 am

Peter,what would be the name?
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Re: NIO: Depression (ARB 1103) (96A)

#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Nov 06, 2011 7:55 am

Next names are:
Thane
Murjan
Nilam
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Re: NIO: Depression (ARB 1103) (96A)

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 06, 2011 7:22 pm

TCFA issued.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTIO21 PGTW 062000
RMKS/
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 64.5E TO 12.1N 59.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 63.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.

Image
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#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:25 pm

Not the official agency, but JTWC renumbered it to 04A just minutes ago.

04AFOUR.20kts-1007mb-132N-604E
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#9 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:51 pm

WTIO31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951Z NOV 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.0N 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.5N 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.4N 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.1N 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.1N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.5N 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.6N 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071541Z TRMM IMAGE
REVEALS THAT THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT, AND THE LOW LEVEL BANDING STILL BEARS THE
SIGNATURE OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
A PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS. THE LLCC EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOUTHWESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ARE PROVIDING A BOOST TO OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE APPROXIMATELY
27 DEGREES; HOWEVER, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 04A IS
RELATIVELY NARROW AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES SHARPLY TOWARDS
THE COAST OF THE SAUDI PENINSULA. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SLOW AND GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE GULF OF ADEN. WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE GULF OF ADEN WILL BE MORE THAN COMPENSATED BY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ALTHOUGH THE LLCC SHOULD REMAIN OVER WATER,
TC 04A WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE HORN OF AFRICA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 061951Z NOV 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 062000).//
NNNN
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Re: NIO: Depression (ARB 1103) (04A)

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:55 pm

WTIO31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 59.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 59.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.1N 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 14.3N 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.2N 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.0N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.9N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.5N 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 59.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT POLEWARD DRIFT ALONG WITH FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE MOST RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATE HAS COME UP TO 35 KNOTS. TWO SHIP REPORTS NEAR THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND A 071645Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS. THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, BUT RECENT ANIMATION INDICATES A NEW SURGE
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS
BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SHEARING, BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL
BENEFITTING FROM VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM IS RISING
AND NOW APPROACHES 20 KNOTS. A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET EXISTS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXCEEDING 30
KNOTS ALONG THE COAST OF OMAN/YEMEN. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE
REGION IS APPROXIMATELY 27 DEGREES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN
PREDICTING A GRADUAL BEND TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK TOWARDS THE GULF OF ADEN. TC 04A IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
INTENSIFY GRADUALLY THROUGH TAU 36, AND THEN BEGIN A SLOW TREND
TOWARDS DISSIPATION OVER WATER DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: NIO: Depression (ARB 1103) (04A)

#11 Postby P.K. » Tue Nov 08, 2011 2:30 pm

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI , 08-11-2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 08 NOVEMBER, 2011 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 08 NOVEMBER, 2011 (.)

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 8TH NOVEMBER 2011 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 14.00N AND LONGITUDE 59.00E, ABOUT 1700 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANGALORE (KARNATAKA), 570 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND (YEMEN) AND 620 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY AND THEN WESTWARDS TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN DURING NEXT 72 HRS.


SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VORTEX OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA CENTRED NEAR 14.00N/59.00E. INTENSITY T2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SEEN OVER WEST ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT. 10.50N TO 20.00N LONG. 55.50E TO 62.00E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE MINUS 77 DEG C.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA. SHIP (12.80N/61.50E) REPORTED MSLP OF1006.8 HPA AND WIND OF 210/24 KNOTS, PRESSURE TENDENCY -0.2 HPA; BUOY (15.00N/56.30E) REPORTED MSLP OF 1007.1 HPA WITH TENDENCY OF -1.4 HPA.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

Date/Time(IST)


Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)


Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)


Categoty

08-11-2011/1200


14.0/59.0


50-60 gusting to70


Deep Depression

08-11-2011/1800


14.2/58.5


55-65 gusting to 75


Deep Depression

09-11-2011/0000


14.5/58.0


65-75 gusting to 85


Cyclonic Storm

09-11-2011/0600


14.8/57.5


65-75 gusting to 85


Cyclonic Storm

09-11-2011/1200


15.0/57.0


65-75 gusting to 85


Cyclonic Storm

10-11-2011/0000


15.0/56.0


55-65 gusting to75


Deep Depression

10-11-2011/1200


15.0/55.0


50-60 gusting to70


Deep Depression

11-11-2011/0000


15.0/53.5


50-60 gusting to70


Deep Depression

11-11-2011/1200


15.0/52.5


45-55 gusting to65


Depression



REMARK:

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. AS PER THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS, IT WOULD LIE OVER THE SAME PHASE DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND THEN MOVE TO PHASE 6. THE PHASE 5 AND 6 ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 280-300C. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS (<50KJ/CM2). THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN PAST 24 HRS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS FAVOURABLE AS IT IS LOW TO MODERATE (BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS). THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 170N. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS. THESE MODELS SUGGEST INITAIL WEST-NORTHWEST/NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN. CONSIDERING ALL THESE, THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE INITIALLY WESTNORTHWESTWARDS AND THEN WESTWARDS TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN DURING NEXT 72 HRS.
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Re: NIO: Deep Depression (ARB 1103) (04A)

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2011 3:43 pm

WTIO31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 58.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 58.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.1N 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.3N 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.3N 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.8N 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.7N 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.8N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 58.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CAPE GUARDAFU, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND SOME
RECENT CONSOLIDATION AND DEEPENING OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A COMPARISON BETWEEN A 081420Z SSMIS IMAGE AND
THE SAME IMAGE 24 HOURS EARLIER REVEALS SHARPER CURVATURE IN THE LOW
LEVEL BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON TWO SHIP REPORTS
NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE 081200Z PGTW STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS
TC 04A EXISTS IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION JUST SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS APPROXIMATELY 15
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 27 DEGREES. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING IMPINGEMENT TO OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT A WELL-DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT PERSISTS. TC 04A IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND TRACK TOWARDS THE
HORN OF AFRICA. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE IMPENDING TURN. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE HORN OF
AFRICA, IT WILL MOVE INTO A REGION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER. CURRENTLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
30 KNOTS OR MORE OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF ADEN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
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