ATL: SEAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SEAN - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#41 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Nov 08, 2011 11:55 am

is nhc site down?
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#42 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:08 pm

NHC still stuck in DST? :lol: Since when did the advisories start coming out at 4 am and 10 am? I thought they always stayed the same and the TWO dropped back an hour? Though it makes sense that the advisory times change too, because UTC doesn't. Seems a spread of NOAA sites are down this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#43 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:13 pm

that happen before when few noaa site want down
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Re:

#44 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:23 pm

brunota2003 wrote:NHC still stuck in DST? :lol: Since when did the advisories start coming out at 4 am and 10 am? I thought they always stayed the same and the TWO dropped back an hour? Though it makes sense that the advisory times change too, because UTC doesn't. Seems a spread of NOAA sites are down this afternoon.


Yeah, it's always like this when on standard time(it's just usually we don't have many storms this late so nobody notices). All official government products come out earlier(the SPC outlooks do too for one). I dunno why the advisories keep saying EDT though when its clearly not.

But the 4am EST advisory this morning was out at 2:30 lol. Earliest I've ever seen, at first I thought it was a special it was so early
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Re: Re:

#45 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:30 pm

Brent wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:NHC still stuck in DST? :lol: Since when did the advisories start coming out at 4 am and 10 am? I thought they always stayed the same and the TWO dropped back an hour? Though it makes sense that the advisory times change too, because UTC doesn't. Seems a spread of NOAA sites are down this afternoon.


Yeah, it's always like this when on standard time(it's just usually we don't have many storms this late so nobody notices). All official government products come out earlier(the SPC outlooks do too for one). I dunno why the advisories keep saying EDT though when its clearly not.

But the 4am EST advisory this morning was out at 2:30 lol. Earliest I've ever seen, at first I thought it was a special it was so early


At the last advisory,they went with AST (Atlantic Standard Time)

SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1100 AM AST TUE NOV 08 2011
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
200 PM AST TUE NOV 08 2011

...SEAN TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 69.5W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST. SEAN HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 380 MILES...610
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE
THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#47 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:37 pm

Sean is now a Tropical Storm

...SEAN TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 69.5W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Advisories

#48 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2011 3:37 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
500 PM AST TUE NOV 08 2011

...SEAN A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
500 PM AST TUE NOV 08 2011

CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF SEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
BANDING FEATURE PERSISTING IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SINCE THE
STORM IS A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WITH A WARM
CORE APPARENT ON AMSU ANALYSES AND A SMALLER RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS AS SEEN IN ASCAT DATA...SEAN NOW HAS ENOUGH CHARACTERISTICS
TO BE CONSIDERED TROPICAL. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 45 KT...IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND EARLIER ASCAT WINDS.
WHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
INTENSIFICATION OF SEAN...THE SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR
THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER MARGINAL SSTS. SINCE
THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER-AIR
TEMPERATURES...THE SST THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENING
IS LOWER THAN USUAL...AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL SPC3 ENSEMBLE SHIPS GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...
SEAN SHOULD ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.

THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND FOR QUITE SOME
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAS
BEGUN. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AS A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...THE
STORM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT SEEMS THAT
BEING ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE EARLIER WAS A GOOD CALL...
AS MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION...APPARENTLY
BECAUSE OF FLATTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW FORECAST TO AFFECT SEAN. ONLY
COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MADE AT DAY 3...BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM
BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY DAY 4...AND THIS SCENARIO
IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 27.8N 69.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 27.9N 70.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 28.4N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 29.0N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 29.9N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 34.0N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#49 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2011 3:37 pm

...SEAN A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#50 Postby Macrocane » Tue Nov 08, 2011 3:54 pm

Could Sean become a hurricane? My personal opinion is no, but we've had systems reaching or maintaining hurricane strength farther north than normal this season (Maria, Ophelia, Katia) so I won't say it's impossible.
Last edited by Macrocane on Tue Nov 08, 2011 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#51 Postby TheEuropean » Tue Nov 08, 2011 5:06 pm

Macrocane wrote:Could Sean become a hurricane? My personal opinion is no, but this we've systems reaching or maintaining hurricane strength farther north than normal this season (Maria, Ophelia, Katia) so I won't say it's impossible.


I say yes and NHC has a 23% probability for Sean to become a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Advisories

#52 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2011 6:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
800 PM AST TUE NOV 08 2011

...SEAN STALLS...EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST. SEAN HAS
MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A SLOW WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#53 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Tue Nov 08, 2011 7:07 pm

Could this be 2011's Epsilon? :D
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#54 Postby TheEuropean » Tue Nov 08, 2011 7:34 pm

Epsilon_Fan wrote:Could this be 2011's Epsilon? :D


So should I change my avatar? ;-)
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Advisories

#55 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2011 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1000 PM EST TUE NOV 08 2011

...SEAN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 70.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM EST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1000 PM EST TUE NOV 08 2011

THE STRUCTURE OF SEAN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A PRIMARY BAND OF RAGGED CONVECTION
THAT WRAPS MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...WHILE THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ARE SEEN IN A SEPARATE BAND
DISPLACED ABOUT 175 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. WHILE SEAN IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MARGINAL
SSTS...THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE COOLER THAN NORMAL...
WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ENOUGH CONVECTION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING
AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHOWING SEAN PEAKING
IN AROUND 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AND
CLOSE TO THE SPC3 SHIPS ENSEMBLE. AFTER 48 HOURS SEAN WILL MOVE
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS. SEAN SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A SURFACE
FRONT SHORTLY AFTER TRANSITION...AND IN FACT SOME GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS SHOW THAT OCCURRING EARLIER THAN INDICATED HERE.

SEAN HAS MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/03. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS. SEAN SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY
48 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT THE NHC FORECAST HAS ONLY
BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND
STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON SEVERAL PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OBSERVATIONS ABOVE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT NOAA BUOY 41048.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 27.9N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 28.0N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 28.6N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 29.5N 70.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 36.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#56 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2011 9:37 pm

...SEAN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 70.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Advisories

#57 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2011 5:13 am

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
400 AM EST WED NOV 09 2011

SEAN HAS AGAIN CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS PRESENT WITHIN 60-75 N MI OF
THE CENTER...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE PRESENT UP TO 240 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB ARE 45 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/3. SEAN IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF A
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
THIS SYSTEM TO REACH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE SEAN TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE DIRECTION
AND SPEED OF FORWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HOURS. THE ECMWF MODEL IS ON
THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND TAKES THE CENTER NEAR
BERMUDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE FORECASTING
A TRACK CLOSER TO NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT/NORTH COMPARED TO 6 HOURS AGO...
AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
HOWEVER...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

SEAN IS IN A REGION OF LIGHT/MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRESENT SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR CAUSED BY THE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAN TO STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND AFTER 24 HOURS. SEAN IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS...WITH THE CIRCULATION BECOMING TOTALLY
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY 96 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH JUST A LITTLE LESS
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION OF SEAN
DISSIPATING BEFORE 72 HOURS...SO THE CURRENT FORECAST LIFETIME
COULD BE GENEROUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 27.9N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 28.4N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 29.4N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 30.6N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 33.1N 67.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 38.5N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Advisories

#58 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2011 6:45 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
700 AM EST WED NOV 09 2011

...SEAN MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 70.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41047 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE MEAN
WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Advisories

#59 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2011 9:49 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1000 AM EST WED NOV 09 2011

...SEAN A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 70.5W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST
OF BERMUDA ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON
BERMUDA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM EST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1000 AM EST WED NOV 09 2011

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
IN A BROKEN RING AROUND THE CENTER OF SEAN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
THAT AN EYE FEATURE IS FORMING. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 45/55 KT...AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA
GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. SEAN HAS ABOUT 24 TO 36
HOURS OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO
FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER...AND
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE LAST ONE...
BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE IF A CENTRAL CORE BECOMES
WELL ESTABLISHED.

THE GRADUAL POLEWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/3. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY...STEERING SEAN
ON A PATH TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BY EARLY TOMORROW.
AS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES APPROACHES THE
STORM...AN INCREASE IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...HOWEVER...ON HOW FAR SEAN MOVES FROM
BERMUDA. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE REST
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A CLOSER TRACK TO BERMUDA...SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL STAY NEAR THOSE HISTORICALLY RELIABLE MODELS. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONT
BETWEEN DAY 3 AND DAY 4...AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW
THIS SCENARIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 27.9N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 28.4N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 29.6N 70.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 31.5N 68.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 33.8N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 41.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#60 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2011 9:49 am

...SEAN A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 70.5W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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