ATL: SEAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2011 9:53 am

Macrocane wrote:Could Sean become a hurricane? My personal opinion is no, but we've had systems reaching or maintaining hurricane strength farther north than normal this season (Maria, Ophelia, Katia) so I won't say it's impossible.


They dont discount it now. From 11 AM AST discussion.

SEAN HAS ABOUT 24 TO 36
HOURS OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO
FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER...AND
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE LAST ONE...
BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE IF A CENTRAL CORE BECOMES
WELL ESTABLISHED.
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#62 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Nov 09, 2011 12:31 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I think we'll see a nice little jump in intensification this afternoon for TS Sean. Nothing rapid, but a nice little spike up.
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Advisories

#63 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2011 12:49 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
100 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

...SEAN TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 70.6W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON
BERMUDA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#64 Postby Frank2 » Wed Nov 09, 2011 1:17 pm

One of the better organized tropical systems this season:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#65 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2011 1:53 pm

18z Best Track increases intensity to 55kts.

AL, 19, 2011110918, , BEST, 0, 283N, 706W, 55, 991, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#66 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:03 pm

I think it'll be a hurricane in 6-12 hours. But by tomorrow afternoon, increasing shear ahead of the cold front should lead to weakening and an acceleration off to the NNE. Probably won't be much left of Sean in 48 hrs.
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#67 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Nov 09, 2011 3:13 pm

Eye feature becoming very apparent:

Image
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#68 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Nov 09, 2011 3:15 pm

Cloud tops aren't very cold though:

Image
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Advisories

#69 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2011 3:41 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
400 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

...SEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 70.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SEAN IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND SEAN
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON
BERMUDA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM EST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
400 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SEAN IS STRENGTHENING. THE CLOUD
PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE COILED BAND...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
WRAPPING UP INTO A BANDING EYE FEATURE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...SO THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL CORE AND ABOUT A DAY OF LIGHT SHEAR
CONDITIONS REMAINING...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS PROBABLE. IT
IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY NONE OF THE MODELS MAKE THIS A HURRICANE...
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY HAD A LOW BIAS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE...THE NEW NHC
FORECAST SHOWS SEAN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...WHICH IS A BIT
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

THE STORM HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KT...A LITTLE
FASTER THAN EARLIER. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME
ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FEELS THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD...THE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SEAN MOVING A FAIR DISTANCE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF BERMUDA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS CAME IN VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEW
NHC TRACK. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SEAN BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL IN TWO DAYS...AND THEN BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY DAY 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 28.7N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 29.4N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 30.6N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 32.7N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 35.8N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#70 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2011 3:42 pm

The word that begins with the letter H is now in the forecast.

...SEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 70.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#71 Postby xironman » Wed Nov 09, 2011 3:56 pm

Did not see a separate recon thread

NOUS42 KNHC 091700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST WED 09 NOVEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z NOVEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-162

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM SEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0119A SEAN
C. 10/1345Z
D. 30.5N 69.3W
E. 10/1730Z TO 10/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 11/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0219A SEAN
C. 11/0730Z
D. 33.0N 65.5W
E. 11/1130Z TO 11/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#72 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:32 pm

Looks like recon may arrive past Sean's peak, which should occur in about 12-18 hours. It could be weakening below hurricane strength by tomorrow afternoon as wind shear increases ahead of the front.
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#73 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:47 pm

Amazing how much tropical charecteristics it has taken considering that it came from a complete non-tropical identity and for being this time of the year.

Image
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#74 Postby Hylian Auree » Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:49 pm

Amazing system. I like that it's pretty shallow but still has an excellent structure -- much better than the amorphous deep convection blobs that fall apart with a bit moderate shear we've been having this season.
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Re:

#75 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:55 pm

Hylian Auree wrote:Amazing system. I like that it's pretty shallow but still has an excellent structure -- much better than the amorphous deep convection blobs that fall apart with a bit moderate shear we've been having this season.


SSTs are nearly 80 degrees beneath Sean. Plenty of heat content.
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Re:

#76 Postby bg1 » Wed Nov 09, 2011 5:23 pm

NDG wrote:Amazing how much tropical charecteristics it has taken considering that it came from a complete non-tropical identity and for being this time of the year.

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc11/ATL/19L.SEAN/vis/gac/1km/20111109.2054.noaa15.x.vis1km.19LSEAN.55kts-991mb-283N-706W.100pc.jpg


Especially considering all the genuine tropical lows and waves that couldn't organize. But then again, this is in the amazingly favorable subtropics.
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#77 Postby bg1 » Wed Nov 09, 2011 5:47 pm

If Sean becomes a hurricane, that will bring the total to 18/7/3. Four straight hurricanes- something that seemed impossible earlier because of the stability issues.
7 of 18 hurricanes brings the ratio to 38.8%, 5.5% more than the lowest recorded ratio since 1950 (where this season also is now).
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Re: ATL: SEAN - Advisories

#78 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2011 6:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
700 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

...SEAN MOVING NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
BERMUDA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 70.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SEAN IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND SEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON
BERMUDA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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#79 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 09, 2011 9:19 pm

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Re: ATL: SEAN - Advisories

#80 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2011 9:45 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1000 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

...SEAN CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...COULD STILL
BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 70.7W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SEAN
WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
SEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

RAINFALL...SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON
BERMUDA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM EST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1000 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY OF SEAN HAS
LEVELED OFF THIS EVENING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER
HAVE WARMED...ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE U.S. NAVY
FNMOC TC WEBPAGE STILL SHOWS A BANDING EYE FEATURE. BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SOME INNER
CORE STRUCTURE...SEAN STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AT 24 HOURS...SHOWING SEAN REACHING
HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER THAT TIME...SEAN SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO
COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE CYCLONE
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.

SEAN HAS JOGGED QUICKLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. SEAN SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS
DUE TO THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT TIME
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 29.5N 70.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 30.3N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 31.8N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 34.5N 64.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 38.5N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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