Mediterranean Sea: 01M NONAME

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DanieleItalyRm
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Mediterranean Sea: 01M NONAME

#1 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 8:41 am

This storm is an example for tropical transition; A extratropical cyclone has acquired warm core and become in Subtropical and successively in a tropical cyclone (for example, tropica cyclone Karl, Grace and Vince it derived from tropical transition).
It Probably a Tropical Storm intensity.

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#2 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 8:48 am

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Re: Mediterranean sea - tropical storm

#3 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 07, 2011 8:53 am

In reference to this post by met P. K.

Got to say this didn't take long given they only just added it to the SAB page!

07/1200 UTC 40.6N 5.9E ST1.5 INVEST -- Mediterranean Sea


Trying to get more information. I will rename this thread as an INVEST.
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Re: Mediterranean sea - INVEST

#4 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:01 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/2011/bu ... chive.html


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... 00IN1.html

TXMM21 KNES 071220
TCSMED

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 07/1200Z

C. 40.6N

D. 5.9E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. ST 1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: Mediterranean sea - INVEST

#5 Postby Chickenzilla » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:21 am

Sorry for offtopic,but Tolakram,you forgot to move my post with ASCAT passes ;)

It is embedded in broad low pressure area and well organized.
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Cloud tops are colder than -50 Celsius on the LLCC,and colder than -60 west of the LLCC.
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#6 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:21 am

for me this is a tropical storm.
Wind 35-45 knts.
It have many tropical caracteristic respect to 98L invest in the Atlantic

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Re: Mediterranean Sea: INVEST

#7 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:03 am

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#8 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:28 am

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#9 Postby Buck » Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:35 am

This looks better than many of the Mediterranean systems we've seen. It's crazy how much more frequent they have become.
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#10 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:38 am

Does anyone know what Meteo-France is saying? Surely there must be some sort of weather map that would show the low. It'd be interesting to see what pressure they'd assign it.
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#11 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:47 am

This weather map is by the German met service of the university of Berlin.
You can see the LPA named "Rolf" with a pressure lower than 1005 mbars.
The time of the map is indicated on the bottom left.
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Re:

#12 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:54 am

Extratropical94 wrote:This weather map is by the German met service of the university of Berlin.
You can see the LPA named "Rolf" with a pressure lower than 1005 mbars.
The time of the map is indicated on the bottom left.
http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/anabwkna.gif


this map to be very general. Other times we have shown that these maps can not see the real pressure into this small mediterranean tropical system.
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#13 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:02 am

Could be. Maybe it's just an estimation of the general pressure in that area, but they actually do pretty good with estimating pressures in extratropical windstorms.
But still these tropical/ subtropical systems tend to have a much tighter pressure gradient near the center, so a 1000-1002 serms reasonable.
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#14 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:27 am

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Re:

#15 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:33 am

Hurricanehink wrote:Does anyone know what Meteo-France is saying? Surely there must be some sort of weather map that would show the low. It'd be interesting to see what pressure they'd assign it.


DEPRESSION 1004 HPA SUR SARDAIGNE, thats what Meteo France says in all of their bulletins.
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#16 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:40 am

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#17 Postby Hylian Auree » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:47 am

This thing should be very interesting to study. It's obviously acquiring more and more trop characteristics; some sort of classification would be well warranted by now.
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#18 Postby westwind » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:23 pm

This is what ESTOFEX have to say about it.

Latest satellite data reveals a gradually better organized depression in the western Mediterranean. The center is at least partially covered by a central dense overcast feature with strong pulsating cells especially along the northern/eastern part. It still ingests a somewhat more stable/dry air mass from the south with a diminishing trend, so conditions look promising for further organization. Latest ASCAT data indicates a broad and asymmetric wind field with maxima still displaced from the center, which is typical for an organizing subtropical cyclone (in the range of 30-35 kt). Phase diagrams also support that this depression continued to structure its shallow warm core during the past 12 h and indicates further organization for the upcoming 24 h. Using the Hebert Poteat technique and keeping in mind the better organized structre of the main band and deeper/somewhat more persisting DMC along the center, a classification of ST 2.5 would be a reasonable, although probably quite an optimistic guess, given still transientness of the convection ( ST 2.5 represents an intensity of 35-40 kt). It has to be stressed out that no real time surface data is present to support that intensification rating.

Overall model guidance agrees in pushing that feature northwards towards S-France but with a significant cone of uncertainty. Also intensity guidance diverges with some models indicating a gradual weakening trend, whereas WRF-NMM f.ex. has some further strengthening until landfall. Current thinking is that some further organization seems likely, before geopotential heights gradually increase on Tuesday. In any case, there seems to be no direct affect to S-France until 06 Z, despite increasing easterly winds along the coast and stronger downpours in onshore moving bands.
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#19 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:43 pm

Cool animated wind forecast, showing a tightening system becoming smaller and more compact.
http://www.meteo-allerta.it/en/weather/ ... italy.html
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#20 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:58 pm

Is now 99L


Seriously.
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