MED: Tropical Storm 01M/NONAME ("Rolf")

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#101 Postby Crostorm » Tue Nov 08, 2011 2:37 pm

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#102 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Nov 08, 2011 2:41 pm

This poses a possible threat to France and its no where on the news?
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#103 Postby Crostorm » Tue Nov 08, 2011 2:51 pm

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#104 Postby Crostorm » Tue Nov 08, 2011 3:28 pm

08/11/2011 21:00 Porquerolles (83) Vent 149 km/h =41 m/s
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Re: Mediterranean Sea: 01M NONAME

#105 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Nov 08, 2011 3:39 pm

Dr.Master's take on this. He does not think it would be a TC if it were in NHC territory.
Unusual tropical storm-like low forms off coast of France
An unusual hybrid low pressure system has formed in the Mediterranean Sea, about 100 miles south of the coast of France. The low began as an extratropical storm named "Rolf", but has stalled out over the relatively warm waters of the Mediterranean over the past two days, and has acquired tropical characteristics. Heavy thunderstorms have built over the northeast portion of the low, and the storm has a symmetric spiral shape with a cloud-free center, like a tropical storm. The Navy is calling this system Invest 99L. The National Hurricane Center is not responsible for the Mediterranean Sea, so they are not issuing any products for 99L. NOAA's Satellite and Information Service (NESDIS) is giving 99L a tropical classification based on its satellite presentation, with winds in the 40 - 45 mph range. French radar shows heavy rains from 99L are beginning to affect Southeast France and the island of Corsica. The Lion Buoy, located about 100 miles to the west of the center of 99L, recorded sustained winds of tropical storm force, 40 mph, at 00 UTC yesterday. Water temperatures at the buoy were 17°C (63°F), far below the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 22°C during Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. I doubt that NHC would name this system if they did have responsibility for the Mediterranean, due to the cold water temperatures.

"Rolf" is expected to move slowly northwards into the coast of South France by Wednesday night. Meteo France is predicting heavy rains of 30 - 40 mm/hr (1.2 - 1.6"/hr) will affect the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday, with sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 75 mph.

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#106 Postby TheEuropean » Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:16 pm

I can't agree to Dr. Masters, this low is tropical for me and it is a storm. Not the absolute water temperature is important, we have to look at the temperature difference between the water and cold air in higher levels. Why is this not the same as in Epsilon, Vince etc.?

Edit to add this from the NHC discussion about "Sean":
"SINCE THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER-AIR
TEMPERATURES...THE SST THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENING
IS LOWER THAN USUAL"

That is exact what I mean above.
Last edited by TheEuropean on Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#107 Postby Crostorm » Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:56 pm

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Re: Mediterranean Sea: 01M NONAME

#108 Postby bg1 » Tue Nov 08, 2011 5:18 pm

A drawn "Best Track", inaccurate in spots but good enough, I think, with current position (blue for subtropical depression, yellow for tropical storm):
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Last edited by bg1 on Tue Nov 08, 2011 5:23 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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#109 Postby Crostorm » Tue Nov 08, 2011 5:19 pm

The tail of 01M is on adriatic coast

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#110 Postby Crostorm » Tue Nov 08, 2011 6:08 pm

24 hour animation

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#111 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Tue Nov 08, 2011 6:12 pm

TheEuropean wrote:I can't agree to Dr. Masters, this low is tropical for me and it is a storm. Why is this not the same as in Epsilon, Vince etc.?


No one would have doubted if this was over the Atlantic ocean.
The Same Epsilone, Vince, Grace, Karl.. it is evident.. formed from tropical transition,
extratropical cyclone ---> Subtropical cyclone ---> Tropical cyclone
same latitude, same sea surface, same dynamical formation.. only a different sea..
They do not know, ignore or do not accept.
This and many other system are only simply Mediterranean Tropical Cyclone..

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Re: Mediterranean Sea: 01M NONAME

#112 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Nov 08, 2011 6:33 pm

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Here is the track map from Wikipedia.
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#113 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 08, 2011 7:46 pm

Based on those reports with a buoy/ship I believe reporting around 51 kt (10-min?), I would say the intensity is 55 kt. I have a hard time going higher given the pressure and Dvorak numbers.
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#114 Postby HenkL » Tue Nov 08, 2011 8:12 pm

Only looking at the temperature difference between the water and temperature at high levels, a lot of polar lows could be named as 'tropical storms'.
The impact of stormy winds are the same, being a tropical storm, a subtropical storm, an extratropical storm, a polar low. It is not unusual for some extratropical storms to reach even hurricane force winds.
I think it's time to have some new definitions.
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#115 Postby Crostorm » Wed Nov 09, 2011 3:33 am

TXMM21 KNES 090627
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 09/0600Z

C. 42.7N

D. 6.1E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T1.0/2.0/W2.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 01M. DT AND PT = 1.0.
FT IS BASED ON RAPID WEAKENING.

NIL


...KIBLER
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Re: Mediterranean Sea: 01M NONAME

#116 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:37 am

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Re: Mediterranean Sea: 01M NONAME

#117 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Wed Nov 09, 2011 6:35 am

Similar to october 2007 system in the same location:
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#118 Postby Crostorm » Wed Nov 09, 2011 6:43 am

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#119 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:40 am

Now TOO WEAK from SAB.
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#120 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:48 am

The Tropical depression 01M ( ex tropical storm 01M) make a landfall:

http://www.sat24.com/en/fr

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